World: Alert 2019! Report on conflicts, human rights and peacebuilding
Executive Summary
Alert 2019! Report on conflicts, human rights and peacebuilding is an annual report analyzing the state of the world in terms of conflict and peacebuilding based on three main axes: armed conflict, tensions, gender and peace and security. The analysis of the most relevant events in 2018 and the nature, causes, dynamics, actors and consequences of the main scenarios of armed conflict and social and political tension around the world allows for a regional comparative vision and also allows identifying global trends and elements of risk and preventive warnings for the future. Furthermore, the report also identifies peacebuilding opportunities or opportunities to scale down, prevent or resolve conflicts. In both cases, one of the main objectives in this report is to make available all of the information, analyses and identification of warning factors and peace opportunities for decision-makers, those intervening for the peaceful resolution to conflicts, or those giving a greater political, media or academic visibility to the many situations of political and social violence in the world.
As for the methodology, the contents of this report mainly draw on a qualitative analysis of studies and information made available by many sources –the United Nations, international organizations, research centres, communication media or NGOs, among others– as well as on field research in conflict-affected countries.
Some of the most relevant conclusions and information in the Alert 2019! report are listed below:
During 2018, 34 armed conflicts were recorded, of which 33 were still active by the end of the year. Most of these were in Africa (14), and Asia (9), followed by the Middle East (6), Europe (3), and the Americas (1). The total number of armed conflicts has remained fairly stable and without significant fluctuations in the last five years.
In 2018 the situation in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia was no longer considered an armed conflict after a historic peace agreement was signed between the Ethiopian government and the armed group ONLF. On the other hand, two new cases –Cameroon (Ambazonia/North West and South West) and the Western Sahel Region– were analyzed as armed conflicts because of the drastic increase of violence.
Regarding the intensity of violence, 38% of the conflicts were low (13 cases), 35% medium (12 cases) and another 27% high (nine cases).
The most serious conflicts in 2018 were Libya, Mali, Lake Chad Region (Boko Haram), Somalia, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen (Houthis).
The number of fatalities in some conflicts greatly exceeded 1,000 in one year, such as Afghanistan, with a death toll that could surpass 43,000; Yemen, with some estimates that 28,000 were killed in 2018, out of a total of more than 60,200 since January 2016; and Syria, with body counts indicating that 20,000 people lost their lives in 2018, including close to 6,500 civilians, out of a death toll of over half a million since the war began in 2011.
30% of armed conflicts experienced an escalation of violence: Cameroon, Mali, the Western Sahel Region, RCA, Colombia, Afghanistan, the Philippines (NPA), India (Jammu and Kashmir) –where the highest number of fatalities since 2009 was registered–,
Israel-Palestine –also with the worst figures since 2014– and Yemen (Houthis).More than one-third of the conflicts experienced a decline in hostilities and levels of violence over the previous year, while 32% of the cases did not face significant changes
Beyond the multi-cause nature of armed conflict, 71% of conflicts (24 of the 34 cases) were mainly driven by opposition to domestic or international policies of the respective governments or to the political, social or ideological system of the State. Also, claims based on identity or calls for self-government were one of the main causes in 59% of cases (20 conflicts).
82% of armed conflicts were internalised international conflicts, in which some of the parties were foreign, the armed actors of the conflict had bases or launched attacks from abroad and/or the conflict spread to neighbouring countries.
12% of the armed conflicts (four cases) were internal, meaning that they were between armed actors of the same country, operating exclusively in and from its borders. Only two cases were considered international: the conflict in the Western Sahel region and the conflict between Israel and Palestine.
Armed conflicts continued to provoke and/or exacerbate situations of humanitarian crisis. Cases like Yemen –the worst humanitarian crisis in the world, with more than 24 million people in need of assistance–, Iraq –where 6.7 million people continued to need help–, Syria – increased from 520,000 to 4.2 million the number of people in need of humanitarian aid in the areas of Idlib and Aleppo–, Burundi –where 3.6 million people needed humanitarian aid– or RCA
–where 2.9 of the 4.5 million people in the country needed humanitarian aid.
One of the impacts of armed conflicts continued to be the phenomenon of sexual violence. The use of sexual violence in contexts such as Iraq, Mali, Myanmar, Nigeria, RCA, DRC, Somalia and Sudan of the South was denounced during 2018.
Forced displacement was, one year more, one of the most serious consequences of armed conflicts globally. Figures published in 2018 highlighted that, until the end of 2017, a total of 68.5 million people had been forced to leave their homes as a result of situations of conflict, persecution, violence and/or human rights violations,
2.9 million more than at the end of the previous year.
- During 2018 83 scenarios of tension were identified around the world. These cases were mainly concentrated in Africa (33), and Asia (18), whereas the remaining cases were spread around Europe (12),
Middle East (11) and the Americas (nine).
