Turkey: A slim majority of Turks sees Assad dynasty's fall as positive

A recent poll conducted in Turkey has revealed that a majority of the public in the country is satisfied with the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Just over 51 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with the collapse of the Assad dynasty, while 27 percent expressed neutrality on the matter. 

The poll was carried out by Stracom, a research and consultancy firm, between December 8 and 11.

Since the start of the Syrian civil war, the Turkish government, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been a key backer of the the Syrian opposition, which spent close to 14 years trying to depose Assad.

In contrast, the Turkish opposition has periodically urged the president to engage with Assad to resolve the Syrian crisis.

One of the most pressing issues for Turkish society has been the presence of more than three million Syrian refugees, who Turkey has hosted for more than a decade.

Despite considerable pressure from his party and electorate, Erdogan stood by the refugees before the critical May 2023 presidential elections, declaring that he would not forcibly send them back.

However, since last year, Turkey's new interior minister, Ali Yerlikaya, has sporadically deported Syrians to Turkish-controlled areas in northern Syria in an effort to reduce their numbers.

The poll revealed that 61  percent of participants believe Syrian refugees would return to their homes now that Assad has been overthrown.

Last week, Yerlikaya mentioned that the number of Syrians leaving Turkey has doubled since Assad’s fall, as Ankara opened a new border gate in Hatay to expedite the return of refugees.

Many analysts credit Erdogan with being a pivotal actor behind Assad’s overthrow.

However, only 43 percent of respondents in the survey attributed this success to Erdogan.

Ceren Kenar, the founder and general manager of Stracom, said that Erdogan could leverage the fall of Assad to his advantage in domestic politics, given that a plurality perceives him as successful in this regard.

The poll also highlighted regional concerns. Over a third of participants expressed anxiety about a potential increase in Israel's influence in the region following Assad’s fall, while more than 43 percent indicated they were undecided on the subject.

“There is a concern amongst some respondents that Israel might exploit the situation in Syria and expand its influence in the region,” Kenar told Middle East Eye.

“This sentiment is particularly pronounced even amongst those who view the regime’s fall positively.”

Kenar also noted that Assad's fall has sparked newfound expectations that Syrian refugees will return soon.

“If this does not happen within a short time frame, it could further exacerbate tensions within Turkish society,” she added.