Iraqi parliament, Baghdad: Parliament/Twitter
Dr. Saman Shali | Exclusive to Ekurd.net
The Middle East is currently undergoing some dangerous political and military developments and events as a direct result of the “American-Iranian” nuclear treaty dispute for which Iraq has, unfortunately, become the staging ground.
Lately, Iraq has witnessed several months of popular unrest and demonstrations, in Baghdad and the southern provinces, against the ruling parties that are accused of corruption and sectarianism. Ordinary citizens exercising their legitimate rights of protest have paid the price: 600 precious lives martyred and 23000 in other casualties in the past few months.
Government security forces have failed to protect them from their killers (the so-called “third-party”).
According to U.S. reports, the “Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).” Took advantage of these uncertain times and started attacking American interests in Iraq and the region. The most recent missile attack was on the headquarters of the coalition forces in the province of Kirkuk in Camp K1 on December 27, 2019, led to the killing of one American civilian, an event that served as the opening salvo in for several tit-for-tat operations in the latest series of conflicts between the two parties. The US government responded by bombing the headquarters of the PMF in Qaim on December 29, 2019, a severe blow that resulted in numerous casualties.
The PMF and other Militias responded on January 1, 2020, by attacking the American Embassy in the Green Zone in Baghdad (the most heavily fortified place in Iraq) burning one of its gates and raising the flags of PMF and the Militias on the embassy wall. The US Government responded to this latest attack by killing the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Qassem Soleimani, and the deputy head of the PMF, Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, on January 3, 2020, in a drone operation at Baghdad’s Airport accusing them both of masterminding and planning and implementing the order to attack the American Embassy.
Everyone expected a very strong response from Iran, but the Iranian response was timid.
Under pressure from the Shiite parties as well as directly from Iran, the Iraqi parliament was practically forced into passing a resolution demanding the withdrawal of all coalition forces, led by the American army, from Iraq.
The Parliament held an exceptional session on January 5, 2020, in the presence of the caretaker-resigned Prime Minister, Dr. Adel Abdul-Mahdi, to discuss the issue of passing a resolution calling for the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Iraq.
The Kurds and most of the Sunnis, plus a portion of the Shiites boycotted the session proclaiming their concern over “loss of security” plus other “economic isness” should these forces be expelled from Iraq.
As the proceedings went on, some members submitted a list that claimed the presence of 170 deputies, a number that would have been sufficient for a proper quorum and declared the session to be in order. But as time went on, video evidence showed that the number of deputies present could not exceed 145 deputies, a number that was not sufficient for an orderly session (a minimum of 165 deputies present is required for quorum).
The session went on and the discussions continued.
It is worthy to note here that before voting on the resolution began, the Speaker of the Parliament declared that: “ This decision is a Shiite decision, not an Iraqi one and that you (the Shiite representatives who are the majority in Parliament) will bear the responsibility for any Resolution taken in this regard.”
The question that then comes up then is: why should the Kurds and Sunnis bear the consequences of this Resolution that was passed under pressure from Iran and the Shiite parties?
So here are some summaries’ and conclusions from the parliamentary deliberations:
1. The Iraqi government should work to end the presence of any foreign forces on Iraqi soil and to also prevent them during their stay from using Iraqi land, water, and air for launching military attacks regardless of reasons. Countries that have these forces in Iraq should pledge not to use the Iraqi region as a platform to target any other country.
2. The Iraqi government should start implementing the parliament’s Resolution as soon as the respective governments are duly informed.
It is important to point out here that this Resolution is a “request” and not a binding “order” for foreign forces to leave Iraq.
Meanwhile, the demonstrators in Baghdad and the other southern provinces rejected this Resolution categorically and promised to continue their peaceful popular revolution until salvation from “Iranian presence in Iraq” is accomplished and until the “formation of a national government that protects Iraqi national interests” is achieved.
The Kurdistan Region considered the Resolution to be contrary to the protocols that govern their relations with the political entities in Baghdad which require prior consultations and agreements between them before action is taken on such important matters.
The implications of this decision are:
1. The parliament’s Resolution is not a binding law that the government must follow.
2. The Iraqi government may not enter into- or cancel any international agreement.
3. Foreign forces include the international coalition forces, NATO, Turkey, and Iran as well. The Resolution cannot be limited to American forces only.
4. If the Resolution is applied, it will need a timetable of no less than one year.
5. The Resolution did not take into account the economic repercussions on Iraq, which could lead to the collapse of the Iraqi economy.
6. The Resolution did not take into consideration the fact that terrorism in Iraq is still ongoing, and that the military and federal police cannot confront it alone without assistance from the international coalition forces. If this Resolution is adopted, we will witness an increase in terrorist operations with the inability of Iraq to control it.
In contrast, the United States of America has the following options:
1. It will resort to the United Nations body to place Iraq under Chapter Seven, due to the inability of its government to protect its citizens. Thus, we will return to square one. They will eliminate the three offices of presidencies, and a military ruler will be appointed until stability returns by the disarmament of the militia forces.
2. If it fails to put Iraq under Chapter Seven, it can put a strong economic blockade on Iraq and cancel the exceptions granted to Iraq from the US sanctions decisions on Iran, concerning purchasing electricity and gas from Iran. The volume of economic transactions between Iraq and Iran ranges between 10-15 billion US dollars. This Resolution will put more sanctions on Iran and will lead to a complete collapse of the Iranian economy, which has long since benefited from the Iraqi dollar to support its economy, despite the US blockade of it.
3. All Iraqi money will be seized in the American banks (estimated at $35.0 billion) as well as in foreign banks, and punish any bank dealings with Iraq, which will lead to the collapse of the Iraqi currency. The money of all the corrupt politicians abroad and at home will be withheld and will be returned to the new government, after the formation of a court to hold these corrupt people accountable.
4. Demand compensation for building military bases and installations, knowing that the agreement stipulates that these bases and installations will be returning to Iraq upon their departure. Though they did not leave according to the agreement, nevertheless, they will be expelled according to the Iraqi Government’s request, which is in contradiction to the agreement.
5. Establishing three Confederate governments – one in Kurdistan, another in Sunni areas, and the third in Shiite areas, and the capital Baghdad will be administered equally by these Confederate governments and will be headed by rotation.
6. In the event that the previous options do not succeed, America can remain in the region to protect its interests — it could activate the Kurdistan referendum in the United Nations to recognize the State of Kurdistan and gather global support to recognize it. Therefore, they can stay after the approval of the Kurdistan government with which they can sign a long-term security agreement.
The Shiite Marjaiya and the Kurdistan Regional Government, along with the countries of the world, are demanding that America and Iran exercise restraint and resort to diplomacy to keep the region from a devastating war. The Gulf Region cannot tolerate another war, especially Iraq, which has not enjoyed peace since the 1960s.
Today, Iraq has two options.
1. Either it stands with the interests of the uprising populace, which demands the election of a Transitional Prime Minister from among independent military officers whose job will be to put the interests of Iraq and Iraqis above all partisan, national, religious, and/or sectarian calls. One of the first acts of this New Government will be to collect all illegal weapons and hand them to the army and then to prepare for early and transparent elections under the full supervision of the United Nations to ensure its legitimacy.
2. Or,
3. it can continue with the present misguided policies that have generated the current ugly reality, and that will lead to more and more destruction of the interests of the people and the nation in the future.
A peaceful and democratic solution is the best solution for the region, especially for war-ravaged Iraq, which must work hard to build trust between the Iraqi people on the one hand and with the government. On the other hand, in full compliance with the constitution; otherwise, Iraq will be divided into three countries.
Saman Shali, Ph.D., Former president of Kurdish National Congress (KNC)
The opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of Ekurd.net or its editors.
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