Iran could obtain control over a container port
in the Syrian province of Latakia. Negotiations between the leaders of the
Islamic republic and representatives of Damascus are already underway, and it
is possible that Israel could have Iranian specialists on its doorstep by
autumn, reports Rambler news outlet.
A stronger foothold for Tehran in Syria will
create risks not only for the Hebrew state, but also for Russia, whose
relations with Iran can hardly be described as a “strategic partnership”,
despite all the assurances from Russian and Iranian officials.
The
negotiations with the Syrian government concern the arrival of Iranian
administrators to Latakia as early as autumn 2019. On 1 October, the contract
with the current managing company, a joint venture between the Syrian
investment company Souria Holding and the French transport enterprise CMA CGM
will expire. The port itself is the property of the Syrian government, and has
been under US sanctions since 2015. At present, there are 23 warehouses at the
container port. Before the country became caught up in a violent conflict in
the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the port was used to transit 3 million tons
of cargo per year.
The
Times notes that control of this commercial port could help the Iranian
government to safeguard a transit route through Iraq and Syria to the
Mediterranean Sea. Such a route is commonly linked to Tehran’s military
ambitions and dubbed the “Shiite Corridor” – a route which could reinforce the
Islamic republic’s position in the region and become the front line in its
battle against Israel.
The
US has endeavored to reduce the quantity of oil that Iran is able to export and
to cut off the transport channels that could help to revive the republic’s
economy, but it has been unable to affect the Chinese, Japanese and Indian
interest in Iranian oil. As such, Iran has continued to ship oil. Since oil
exports comprise roughly 70% of its revenue, maritime transport is of critical
significance to Tehran, both for transporting and for storing the black gold.
However,
the quality of the fleet at Iran’s disposal is questionable. After the Greek
company that used to provide Iran’s tankers was blacklisted, it became clear
that it is becoming increasingly difficult to use the old schemes to circumvent
sanctions. Experts claim that old methods, such as changing a ship’s name and
deactivating the automatic identification system, no longer work.
Iran
claims that its presence in Latakia is of an economic nature. A contract has
been signed to construct a $460 million power station in the coastal zone.
Spectators view these agreements as part of Iran’s plans to entrench itself in
Syria. In addition, Tehran and Damascus have agreed to found a joint chamber of
commerce and an investment bank, and to establish favorable customs tariffs as
part of the free trade zone agreement signed in 2011. Iran’s enemies in the
region are naturally suspicious that these economic projects are merely a front
for Iranian military expansion.
The
Times suggests that Iran’s economic and military entrenchment in Latakia
could help it to expand militarily under the cover of Russian aircraft, since
the Russian bases are in Tartus in the south of Latakia. However, there are
reasons to believe that a partnership between Moscow and Tehran in the post-conflict
period in Syria is extremely doubtful. In recent times, Russia has ramped up
its commercial ties, which have included arms deals, with the Islamic
republic’s regional adversaries – Saudi Arabia and Israel, and has more
forcefully affirmed its rights to natural resources in the Caspian Sea. This
development can only evoke a negative reaction in Tehran, which understands
full well that when the civil war in Syria ends, its influence in the region
will have to be shared with Russia, even in the economic sphere.
According
to statistics from 2018, Russian companies have overtaken Iran in gas
exploration tenders in Syria. Despite the presumption that Russia has a right
to vote in investment deals between Damascus and Tehran, Russia has every
reason to fear for its position in Syria. It is quite possible that the
competition between Russia and Iran will soon reach new levels.