Iraq News Now

The defusing of a major

political crisis in Lebanon this week after Hezbollah paused a bellicose

campaign against its main domestic critic offered a rare glimpse of Iran’s

capacity to back down when an escalation comes to the verge of an outcome

beyond its control.
Although

the rough school of Lebanese politics is in different league to the US-Iran

tensions, Beirut is an interlinking piece in a geopolitical chain comprised of

Iranian-backed militia proxies. Their tactics often reflect strategic moves of

their backers in Tehran.
In

this case Iran appears to have blinked. Its rivals united and held their ground

against Hezbollah pressure, which kept mounting to the point of possibly

putting off western donors crucial for any economic recovery.
At

the centre of the crisis has been Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. His backstage

stewardship has been crucial to the survival of Lebanon’s small but established

Druze community and to the perseverance of a western-backed anti-Hezbollah bloc

hit by the rising regional power of Iranian proxies.
In

Paris last year, mostly western donors pledged $11 billion (Dh40.4bn) for an

economic rescue package but demanded fundamental reforms first. As yet Lebanon

has mostly not delivered, partly a reflection of the contradictions in a

political system dominated by Hezbollah as the only armed, non-state actor.
The

crisis jeopardised the prospects of this cash infusion, raising fears of an

economic collapse and a run on what many consider an overvalued Lebanese pound

reeling under public debt that stands at one-and-half times the gross domestic

product.
In

this doomsday scenario, which could prompt sectarian tensions breaking into the

open, among the worst hit financially would be Tehran’s Shiite constituency in

Lebanon, which doubles as Hezbollah’s core recruitment base.
For

decades Hezbollah had played on what it terms the marginalisation and lack of

economic opportunity for Shiites, who comprise an estimated 28 per cent of

Lebanon’s estimated 6 million population.
Hezbollah

and its allies have tried to bring down Mr Jumblatt for two years, cutting him

out of the backroom political deals that are the hallmark of Lebanon’s divided,

and sectarian, polity.
When

that failed, pro-Hezbollah Druze factions initiated what amounted to armed

incursions in the Chouf Mountains, the heartland of the Druze, in an apparent

bid to stoke violence within the community.
In

one such move last year a Jumblatt supporter was killed. In the latest, on June

30 two bodyguards of a pro-Hezbollah junior Druze minister were killed and two

Jumblatt supporters were wounded. The shoot-out became known as the Basateen

incident.

Walid Jumblatt, right, and Samir Geagea attend the

commemoration in 2006 of the first anniversary of Lebanese prime

minister Rafiq Hariri's assassination. AFP
Mr Geagea leads

the Lebanese Forces, a former militia turned political party that has four

members in the 30-member cabinet, which convened on Saturday after Mr Jumblatt,

Mr Hariri, Mr Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri held what was billed as a

reconciliation meeting.

The

Basateen case has now been put on the back burner, having been handed over to a

military tribunal divided along pro and anti-Hezbollah lines.
Hezbollah

retreated only when the damage to its own interests outweighed the benefits

from its violent tactics, suggesting its Tehran backers read situations

rationally when the costs become too high.