Will Iran outmaneuver US in hunt for Grace 1 tanker?
The Grace 1 oil tanker that is at the center of an international
crisis between the UK, US, Iran and other countries, fueling tensions from the
Persian Gulf to Gibraltar. It received a fresh coat of paint according to
photos published by GBC news in Gibraltar on Saturday. Re-flagged as the Adrian Darya, it could be sailing towards Syria or another destination
soon. But the US wants it detained.
On Friday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned mariners
against crewing ships linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or
others under US sanctions. The US has assessed that the Grace 1 has assisted the IRGC in transporting oil to Syria.
“The maritime community should be aware that the US government intends to
revoke visas held by members of such crews,” Pompeo said.
Meanwhile, the US
Justice Department has put out a warrant for the seizure of the Grace 1. It is accused of financial links to the IRGC.
Iranian media says the ship will leave Gibraltar within 48
hours. It was detained there on July 4, but Iran responded by detaining a
British ship. Iran says the Gibraltar courts have withstood US pressure and the
ship will be on its way soon. Iran thinks it has called the UK’s bluff. The UK
originally sent Royal Marines to stop the Grace 1. Iran’s response, seizing the Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz, involved a stunt with Iranian
helicopters, seemingly showing that Iran has the same naval prowess as the UK.
In one sense, the naval diplomacy taking place now is not as
interesting as previous centuries – like Admiral Horatio Nelson’s search for
the French fleet in the Napoleonic wars – but the stakes are just as high,
because Iran and the US are engaged in increasing rounds of tensions that could
lead to conflict. The US called off a drone strike in June after one of its
most sophisticated surveillance drones was shot down by Iran. Iranian proxies
have been accused of firing rockets near US bases in Iraq and Iranian-supported
militia groups have seen some of their munition storage facilities explode in
mysterious conflagrations in recent weeks. In short: The Middle East is a on
edge.
Iran’s main goal is to get the Grace 1, now renamed, out of port and on its way. Then, with the UK
asking for de-escalation and in the midst of the Brexit crisis, Iran hopes that
it can quietly release the British ship and all will be well. The US has put
out the paperwork to try to slow the Grace 1’s progress, but Washington is focused now on a deal to
withdraw from Afghanistan. Will it try to get someone else to stop the ship en
route to Syria.
Much is at stake because Iran wants this to look like a win
that will appear to isolate the US. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad
Zarif was recently in Qatar, slamming “foreign” powers, just miles from a US
military base. Tehran wants to show that it can get around US sanctions and do
as it pleases, whether that means growing relations with NATO-member Turkey, or
working with Russia. The US says Iran is under maximum pressure, but Iran wants
to turn the tables and show that it too can pressure others, whether that means
in the Gulf, or as far away as London. The oil tanker sitting in waters off
Gibraltar is a key to Iran’s ambitions.