Iran's oil exports hit new 2019 low so far in April
Iran's crude oil exports have dropped in April to their
lowest daily level this year, tanker data showed and industry sources said,
suggesting buyers are curbing purchases before Washington clamps down further
on Iranian shipments as expected next month.
The United States reimposed sanctions on Iran in November
after pulling out of a 2015 nuclear accord between Tehran and six world powers.
Those sanctions have already more than halved Iranian oil exports, the
country's main source of revenue.
Shipments are averaging below 1 million barrels per day
(bpd) so far this month, according to Refinitiv Eikon data and two other
companies that track such exports and declined to be identified. That's lower
than at least 1.1 million bpd as estimated for March.
The latest drop deepens supply losses resulting from an
OPEC-led global agreement to cut oil production and U.S. sanctions on another
OPEC member, Venezuela. Supported by those moves, oil prices have risen 30
percent this year to $71 a barrel.
"Collapsing Venezuelan oil output and sanctioned
Iranian exports have put a big question mark over supply," Norbert Ruecker
of Swiss bank Julius Baer said.
While exports could rise later in the month, the drop so far
suggests Washington is making progress towards its goal of curtailing shipments
to below 1 million bpd from May.
The United States, seeking to avoid an increase in oil
prices, granted sanctions waivers to China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan,
Japan, Turkey and South Korea that allowed them to keep buying some Iranian
crude. Those exemptions expire in May and analysts expect a new round to be
less generous.
The US government is considering more sanctions against
Iran and has the ability not to give waivers at all, a senior Trump
administration official said this month.
"We think there are very high chances that China and
India and perhaps Turkey will receive (fresh) waivers, but with further
cuts," said Sara Vakhshouri of energy consultant SVB Energy International.
There is no definitive figure on how much oil Iran exported
in March. Shipments have become more opaque since sanctions returned, and Iran
no longer reports its production figures to the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries.
One of the two companies that tracks shipments estimated
Iran exported 1.1 million bpd of crude last month, while the other company put
the number at 1.3 million bpd. Kpler, another company that tracks Iranian
exports, estimated March shipments of crude and condensate at 1.29 million bpd.
Still, there is general agreement that crude shipments have
dropped from at least 2.5 million bpd in April 2018, the month before U.S.
President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal with
Iran.
Tehran has vowed to keep exporting oil despite US efforts
to reduce its shipments eventually to zero.