Turkey — ‘U.S. sanctions instead of dialogue’
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) talks to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium July 11, 2018. Photo: AP
Ayman Riad Al-Mufleh | Exclusive to Ekurd.net
By the end of the year, Turkey will have either modern F-35 fighter jets or Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. And they will not receive both.
The choice that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will make will have enormous consequences for Turkey, for its place in the world, its relations with the United States and its position in NATO. However, if Turkey purchases Russian anti-aircraft complexes, it will be subject to sanctions, as required by American law.
In July 2017, Turkey announced that it would purchase S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems in Russia. S-400 is the most advanced system produced today in Russia, which seeks to prevail over low-visibility technology “stealth”. And this system was created in order to shoot down F-35 fighter jets. Since the C-400 should arrive in Turkey in July, and the F-35 in November, it’s time for President Erdogan to make a choice. America insists on abandoning the C-400, in favor of saving the F-35 program.
If President Erdogan does not make this choice and accepts the S-400, Turkey will be subject to sanctions, as required by the American Law on Countering America’s Opponents through Sanctions. The sanctions will deal a powerful blow to the Turkish economy, embarrass world markets, scare off foreign investors with direct investments and seriously harm the Turkish aerospace and defense industries. Rejecting the F-35 will have disastrous consequences for Ankara. Turkey has already invested over $ 1.25 billion in the F-35 program, and this money will be lost.
The S-400 deal also became a major component of Turkish policy in Syria, where Ankara gradually changed its position. If at first she supported the change of the Syrian regime, now she wants to defend the interests of her own security, preventing the spread of Kurdish influence in the north of Syria. Hinting at rapprochement with Russia, Turkey wanted to force the American government to reconsider the policy of supporting the Kurdish people’s self-defense detachments in Syria (YPG). The fact is that Turkey views these groups as a subsidiary of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), which is hated by the Turks (the movement that emerged in the 1980s for the creation of an independent Kurdish state in Turkey, headed by Abdullah Ocalan before 1999).
A Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet is seen at the ILA Air Show in Berlin, Germany, April 25, 2018. Photo: Reuters
No political decision in history has done more serious damage to the US reputation in Turkey than their ongoing attempts to use Kurdish armed forces to achieve their goals. It is not excluded that Washington saw in this grouping a convenient means for defeating ISIS, but as a result, he turned Ankara against himself. The destruction of mutual trust, caused by the American support of Kurdish formations, was an important factor that changed Ankara’s calculations and forced her to buy strategic weapons systems in Russia. In the future, the territories controlled by the Kurds can become a zone for the next “Branch” or “Shield”, and the Kurdish units themselves will be a bargaining chip during negotiations on the supply of weapons systems to Turkey.
The situation was complicated by the fact that Washington reacted weakly and not immediately to the first steps of Turkey towards rapprochement with Moscow. When Ankara concluded an agreement with the Kremlin in 2017, American leaders did not immediately make it clear to the Turkish authorities that they would have serious consequences if they bought Russian systems. Only now, when several months are left before the deliveries, the American government has increased political and diplomatic pressure, trying to convince the Turkish authorities to abandon the purchase of Russian equipment.
Two NATO allies fell into a trap of confrontation, with no room for maneuver. Turkey, apparently, does not want to retreat, despite the sharp criticism from Washington. And the United States is already thinking about imposing sanctions, canceling a deal to supply 100 F-35 aircraft for the Turkish Air Force and 24 for its naval forces, and also to exclude Turkey from the program of joint production of components for the F-35, under which Turkish companies were granted investment portfolio of nearly 12 billion dollars.
It is worth noting that earlier in the Turkish Foreign Ministry threatened the United States to find a replacement for the F-35 fighter in case the US side refuses to supply them. And the Turkish state news agency Anadolu recently published an infographic, from which it follows that the Russian Su-57 fighter surpasses the American F-35 aircraft in a number of characteristics. In the infographic to the material it is noted that the Russian aircraft is faster, has a longer flight duration, maximum take-off mass, and also a combat load.
Russian s-400 missiles. Photo: Sputnik
But even if Trump protects Ankara from sanctions, justifying it with considerations of national security, the Turkish government will still have to choose between the Russian fifth-generation aircraft and American planes, as well as themes. If the United States imposes sanctions on Turkey, which is more likely, it will have long-term strategic consequences for NATO. It is even possible that Turkey will doubt the expediency of its membership in the alliance.
In order to avoid such upheavals in the transatlantic alliance, the US government in the coming months will have to convince Ankara to abandon purchases of C-400 in Russia, also to give guarantees on supplies in case Ankara refuses to purchase C-400. Turkey will have to compensate Russia for possible financial losses, as well as find other buyers of these systems. Either acquire non-strategic weapons systems in Russia, namely individual systems, such as Pantsir missile system, which do not pose a threat to NATO-based forces and forces in Turkey, but these purchases may still lead to sanctions from the United States. But violation of the treaty with Russia, in any case, will negatively affect relations between the two countries, as well as the situation in the north of Syria, where the fragile peace is supported by the efforts of the military and diplomatic workers of Russia and Turkey.
Ayman Riad Al-Mufleh, a senior journalist and blogger focusing on the middle-east issues.
The opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of Ekurd.net or its editors.
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