ISIS leader’s video an attempt to shore up control, say experts
The propaganda video of ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was released in an attempt to convince ISIS followers that the elusive leader remained in control of the global terror group and unfazed by increasing dissent within its ranks, intelligence officials believe.
Baghdadi’s return to public view in his first
video appearance in five years has sparked a fresh examination of his standing
within ISIS. Some observers claim his grip on power has dramatically weakened
as the group has lost the land it once held, as well as its leaders and loot.
Western and regional officials say Baghdadi
was trying to relaunch himself on a global stage with the 18-minute video and
audio released by ISIS’s media arm on Monday. While Baghdadi spoke at length
about the group’s defeat in March in eastern Syria, he devoted much of his
appearance to discussing other conflicts and political events: the Easter
attacks in Sri Lanka, the electoral return of Benjamin Netanyahu and the fall
of longtime autocrats in Sudan and Algeria.
Baghdadi’s efforts to establish himself as in
control of a global organisation include his references to battles in Libya and
Saudi Arabia, and pledges of allegiance allegedly given to his group in Burkina
Faso, Mali and Afghanistan. He also claims to have received pledges of loyalty
in Somalia, Yemen, the Caucasus, west and central Africa, and Turkey.
The structures of ISIS in Syria and Iraq have
been decimated by a five-year war that culminated in Baghuz, on the edge of the
Euphrates. As the “caliphate” he had proclaimed in the Grand Mosque in Mosul in
2014 collapsed, so too did the authority Baghdadi held over tens of thousands
of fighters and followers, often enforced through unrelenting brutality.
Officials in Iraq and Europe believe there
have been several attempts to oust Baghdadi in the past six months and that one
former senior ISIS figure, Abu Mohammed Husseini al-Hashimi, remains a potent
threat to his leadership.
Hashimi has come to prominence in the last
month with the release of a 200-page online book that urges any remaining members
of the organisation to revolt against its leader.
The core of the argument is that Baghdadi has
distorted the pre-2010 ISIS project with his oppressive and tyrannical
behaviour and so obedience to him is no longer appropriate.
Not a lot is known about Hashimi, whose has
rapidly emerged as a figure being closely watched by analysts and intelligence
agencies in the fast-shifting politics of ISIS, beyond what is revealed by his
writings.
His latest book praises ISIS for reviving
traditional hudud punishments under Islamic law, such as stoning for those
convicted of adultery, as well as reviving the largely forgotten idea of the
caliphate, whose ruler is considered a successor to the prophet Muhammad. The ISIS
project, in his view, was never allowed to develop fully because of the enemies
ranged against it.
In his writing Hashimi described the brutality
of the Iraqi ISIS members, their grip over the executive branch of the
organisation and their efforts to kill anyone who disagreed with them, which he
claims are the main reason behind his call to withdraw allegiance from
Baghdadi.
It is believed that Hashimi is a former aide
to Baghdadi and held leading positions, including as an Islamic judge in Mosul.
Somewhere in 2017 and 2018 he appears to have fled what was left of the
caliphate, according to a charge sheet against another dissident, Abu Ya’qub
al-Maqdisi, who was executed after being accused of treason in late 2018. One
of Abu Ya’qub’s sins, according to the statement, was to be a friend of the “criminal”
Hashimi, and to have known his hiding place before he fled.