Could Abd al-Mahdi be replaced as obstacles continue to hamper him?
Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi faces lots of obstacles
that hamper the work of his cabinet, which is still incomplete, bringing to
question whether some factions in Iraq could soon seek to replace him.
Time
Time is not in Abd al-Mahdi’s favor, as problems are
accumulating and more crises emerge. Protests are renewed against poor services
in Iraq's central and southern provinces.
The security issue comes at the top again, as ISIS elements
intensify efforts and activities, especially at borders between Iraq and Syria.
Security troops forcibly disperse protests by residents from
Babylon province trying to voice their demands for enhanced services. The
occurrence of the similar situations in several provinces, especially the
southern ones, indicates the cabinet’s failure.
US sanctions
As the US sanctions on Iran enter a new phase of
restriction, more pressure is being made on Abd al-Mahdi’s cabinet to limit the
impact of those sanctions on the Iraqi economy.
Political conflicts
In addition to the direct economic impact of the sanctions,
the issue is subject to political conflicts, especially since a large number of
Iraqi politicians are loyal to Iran and pressure the government in Baghdad not
to take Washington's side.
Political crisis
Iraqi sources indicate that Abd al-Mahdi could leave office,
either by resignation or dismissal, if more pressure were made, hampering his
ability to complete the cabinet.
This scenario would engage Iraq in a political crisis, as
reaching an agreement on whoever succeeds Abd al-Mahdi would be difficult.
Alternative to Abd al-Mahdi
Some leaks indicated efforts in search for an alternative
for the prime minister, as the current one has not fulfilled the demands of all
the blocs.
Meanwhile, the Kurds are keeping themselves away from the
center after taking their requirements, in addition to the oil agreement which
states providing the central government with 250,000 barrels of oil daily.
However, the government did not receive any since the agreement. Some Kurdish
politicians said that the Kurdistan Region has debts to some countries totaling
about 300 million dinars.
Red lines
The previous governments tried to ease the obstacles by
attempting to impose decisions that were not approved by some components, which
resulted in the emergence of terrorist groups. Now, some politicians have fears
of a repetition of the same scenario in case the big blocs do not agree with
other components.