Israel fears Assad's fall could embolden protesters in Egypt and Jordan
Israeli military and intelligence chiefs have met Egyptian officials in Cairo for urgent talks about regional stability following the overthrow of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Damascus.
Tuesday’s meeting, reportedly attended by Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet intelligence agency, came on the same day Israeli forces were seizing territory in Syria and attacking military infrastructure across the country in an operation they dubbed “Bashan Arrow”.
According to Israel’s Maariv newspaper, the meeting, which was ostensibly to discuss the prospects of a hostage deal in Gaza, was requested by Egyptian officials to discuss the threat to regional stability posed by events in Syria.
Maariv cited fears in official circles that the sudden collapse of the Assad dynasty, after 55 years of dictatorship and 13 years of civil war, could embolden calls for political change in other Arab states.
Avi Ashkenazi, Maariv’s military correspondent, reported that Israel’s security establishment is deeply concerned by possible fallout from Syria in two other neighbouring countries: Egypt and Jordan.
"The concern is twofold," Ashkenazi told Maariv radio.
"On the one hand, the Muslim Brotherhood may try to exploit the problems in Syria to re-influence the situation in Egypt, and on the other hand, Iran may try to agitate the region, and try to take over Jordan or harm the Middle East."
He said that Israel was stepping up the construction of a security fence along its frontier with Jordan and was building a new army unit to deploy to the eastern border region.
Ashkenazi predicted that the next few days would see a crackdown on political activists and opposition groups by police and security services across the Arab world.
Maariv cited concerns in Israel too that events in Syria could embolden activists in Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain where a pro-democracy campaign was brutally repressed in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings.
Democracy 'dangerous'
Abed Abu Shehadeh, a Palestinian activist in Israel, told MEE that any moves towards greater democracy in the Middle East threatened to erode the power structures that Israel relied on to sustain its occupation of Palestinian territories.
These included state violence and human rights abuses, he said.
“Authoritarian regimes often suppress opposition with brutal force, creating a political environment more conducive to Israel's regional ambitions,” said Abu Shehadeh.
'Authoritarian regimes often suppress opposition with brutal force, creating a political environment more conducive to Israel's regional ambitions'
- Abed Abu Shehadeh, Palestinian activist in Israel
“In this context, Israel’s preference for stability in the Arab world becomes clear: democratic transitions threaten to erode its strategic dominance.”
Amir Fakhory, a Palestinian academic and activist, told Middle East Eye that Israel’s military response to the end of Assad’s rule, even as Syrians were celebrating their freedom, demonstrated that it preferred dictatorships to democracies on its doorstep.
“The Syrian people were celebrating the end of one of the harshest dictatorial regimes in modern history, but very close to them, Israel was shelling them,” said Fakhory.
“What is the message: when you are free, we will attack and humiliate you? Israel will see any democratic process as dangerous.”
Israel's military claimed on Tuesday to have destroyed 80 percent of Syria's military infrastructure - including the country's naval fleet based in the port of Latakia - in a wave of air strikes carried out just hours after Syrian rebel groups advancing from the north had seized control of Damascus.
Israeli forces were also reported to have taken territory beyond the occupied Golan Heights, including Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon), Syria's highest peak, advancing to within 40 kilometres of Damascus.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday: "We have no intention of interfering in Syria's internal affairs, but we clearly intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security."
