Turkey cautiously optimistic about Syria’s deal with the Kurds
Turkey is approaching a breakthrough integration deal signed between Syria's new government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with cautious optimism, Middle East Eye understands.
According to the agreement signed by President Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria will be integrated into the administration of the Syrian state, including border crossings, the airport and oil and gas fields.
Ankara has long viewed the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), whose imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan last month called for the group he founded to disarm and disband.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan last year said the SDF should expel all PKK fighters and join the central government to reach a peaceful resolution with Ankara.
Pro-government Turkish media and public news outlets were jubilant about the deal on Tuesday morning. TRT said that the SDF bowed to Turkish pressure, while the Yeni Safak newspaper claimed that the group accepted disarmament.
Two Turkish sources familiar with the government's thinking said that the deal overall could satisfy Turkey's demands, since it doesn't suggest any autonomy or federal Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.
"It suggests there would be one unified Syrian army, and the northeast would be part of one unitary state," one Turkish source told MEE.
While regional countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia were quick to welcome the step, Turkey has yet to officially comment on the issue. The second source said this indicated Ankara's caution.
Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Turkish nationalist party who initiated dialogue with Ocalan on PKK's dissolution, said over the weekend that the SDF should also dissolve itself as part of Ocalan's call.
Ocalan is treated as an ideological leader within the People's Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish armed group that dominates the SDF.
The second source said Ankara would closely follow the deal to ensure that the SDF expels PKK forces as Abdi publicly promised, and that Kurdish forces join the Syrian defence ministry as individual units rather than a separate force.
"By signing this agreement, Mazloum Abdi has effectively marked the end of the autonomous administration project in Syria, thereby alleviating one of Turkey's most significant national security concerns," said Omer Ozkizikci, a senior regional expert at the Atlantic Council think tank.
"Since the collapse of the Assad regime, regional dynamics have increasingly shifted in Turkey's favour, reinforcing its geopolitical position. All stars appear to be aligned for Turkey."
US pressure
One factor, other than Ocalan's call, that pushed Abdi to sign such a deal is US mediation and pressure over the SDF, according to regional diplomats and experts, which could be considered a sign that Washington is likely to withdraw its forces from the country soon.
Two American officials told MEE that Washington has been working for months to convince the SDF to find areas of cooperation with the new Syrian government, which took power in December.
A senior US official said Turkey had engaged and arranged a call from Ocalan in exchange for Washington encouraging the SDF to work with and join the government.
"This would mean laying down weapons and they are not considering autonomy or something similar for the Kurdish-held areas," the official told MEE.
The official added that the Trump administration was interested in making business deals with the new Syrian government, including access to oil resources in the country's northeast.
The official also said that US President Donald Trump was interested in good relations with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and this deal could be considered in that direction.
Washington has been concerned about the protection of prisons hosting Islamic State (IS) fighters and their families, as well as the possibility that the SDF's integration into the army would negatively affect the ability to confront the militant group.
Read More »Ankara last week established a new platform with Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq to sustain and coordinate the fight against IS, and Damascus has been willing to take over the prisons, which is stipulated by the deal.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, has been calling on the Syrian Kurds to refuse to cooperate with Turkey, which has particularly angered Ankara.
"Should the agreement hold, it puts Turkey in a much stronger position to control developments in Syria and makes it harder for other actors to shape those developments," said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies.
"In any case, it was an overreach for Israel to operate in these areas [in the north], so in practice, probably not much has changed."
Lindenstrauss added that southern Syria, however, had a different dynamic where there are clear Israeli attempts to shape the situation.
Israeli warplanes bombarded areas in southern Syria as Sharaa signed the deal with Abdi on Monday night.
Yet there are concerns that Abdi's step could be another attempt to win time while distracting other parties.
Suhail al-Ghazi, a long-time expert on Syrian affairs, reminded that the SDF and Abdi repeatedly met with the Kurdish National Council, a rival party, yet it led to nothing.
"The KNC still couldn't work in northeast Syria and their members were arrested sometimes," he said.
"The language of the agreement is very broad and each side will interpret it as they want. Forming committees is not going to be easy, and this step itself will take some time."
