Shafaq News/ In a move that could "shake up" the political landscape and lead t? the postponement ?f parliamentary elections ?n the Kurdistan Region, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) announced the boycott ?f parliamentary elections ?n the Region scheduled for next June.
KDP's Ultimatum to SAC
KDP threatened t? withdraw from the the intricate political landscape ?f the ruling State Administration Coalition (SAC) does not adhere t? the agreements, urging them t? “fulfill their national responsibilities by upholding the constitution and honoring all provisions ?f the political and administrative agreement governing the current cabinet led by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.”
The SAC emerged after Muqtada Al-Sadr's exit from the political arena. It primarily consists ?f the KDP, under the leadership of Masoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by Bafel Talabani. It also includes the Sunni Sovereignty (Al-Siyada), led by Khamis al-Khanjar, Taqadum, led by Mohammed Al-Halbousi, and the Shiite coalition forces supported by Iran (Coordination Framework).
The coalition outlined goals such as combating corruption, implementing reforms, rebalancing Iraq’s regional relations, revising the electoral commission system, and promoting consensus among Iraqi factions.
The decision ?f the Kurdistan Democratic Party, ?r "the Party" as ?t ?s known, ?s akin t? sounding an alarm bell ringing ?n Erbil, clearly audible ?n Baghdad, resonating throughout the Region. This ?s because a fundamental pillar ?f political action ?n Iraq, and ?f statehood itself, ?s unequivocally stating that "the political game has become characterized by imbalance and wavering."
"The Party" has been a key player ?n the struggle against the dictatorial regime (led by Saddam Hussein) from the beginning, then becoming one ?f the architects ?f post-2003 Iraq, the 2005 constitution, and an indispensable partner ?n all successive Iraqi governments since then. It has led several governments and presidencies ?n the Region since the autonomy in the 90s.
Through its political office statement, KDP asserts that "it ?s ?n the interest ?f our people and our nation" not t? participate ?n the upcoming Regional elections ?n June 10.
While the "earth-shaking” statement indicates that the foundations ?f the "state" are at stake, the Party, alongside its historical weight ?n Kurdish and Iraqi memory overall, dominating Kurdish representation and other social, religious, and ethnic segments ?n the Region, has been a major player ?n shaping political life ?n Iraq since before 2003, laying the groundwork for the new democratic system with Iraqi and other Kurdish forces.
In this sensitive political moment, ?t expresses a sense ?f despair about existing political and constitutional practices.
"We believe that ?t ?s ?n the interest ?f our people and our nation not t? comply with our party's decision t? withdraw from an unconstitutional decision and a system imposed from outside the will ?f the people ?f Kurdistan and its constitutional institutions, and not t? participate ?n elections held contrary t? the law and constitution under an imposed electoral system." The political office ?f the Kurdistan Democratic Party stated.
Addressing the citizens ?f the Region; the statement placed the parties ?f the State Administration Alliance before their national responsibilities, "otherwise, we cannot continue ?n the political process."
Supreme Court's Controversial Ruling
KDP's shocking position came after Iraq's Supreme Court issued decisions regarding the Kurdistan Parliament Election Law ?n February 21, 2024, including canceling ?f "quotas" seats and replacing the Kurdistan Independent High Electoral Commission with the federal one.
The court declared that a specific article concerning the minority quota in KRG’s provincial election law was deemed "unconstitutional." This article, part of a law initially adopted in 1992 and revised in 2013, mandates 11 quota seats in the Regional parliament for ethnic and religious minorities.
Furthermore, the verdict stated that Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission will take over from KRG’s electoral commission to supervise parliamentary elections, which are anticipated to occur next June.
The decision also divided Kurdistan into four constituencies, Al-Sulaymaniya, Erbil, Duhok, and Halabja instead of the single-constituency system in previous elections.
In response, most Turkmen and Christian parties in the Kurdistan Region announced their boycott.
KDP leader Masoud Barzani stated that the Federal Court's decision was "a blow to partnership and coexistence."
PUK vs KDP
The political landscape of Iraqi Kurdistan is shaped by the intricate dynamics between two key players, the KDP and the PUK. Their relationship has evolved over time, characterized by periods of collaboration and rivalry.
Both parties share a history of advocating for Kurdish rights in Iraq. However, ideological differences and power struggles have fractured their unity.
These tensions have resurfaced in recent years, especially concerning issues such as oil revenue, political authority, and contested territories like Kirkuk.
The PUK's decision to boycott KRG meetings in 2023 further highlighted the ongoing challenges faced by the region.
While the KDP predominantly governs the Kurdistan Region, the PUK holds significant influence in both political and military spheres.
The recent federal court's ruling came after a lawsuit by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the Kurdistan Democratic Party's (KDP) historic rival, according to a court document.
PUK stated on many occasions that it is committed to holding Kurdistan parliamentary elections on June 10.
Meanwhile, PUK announced that commenting on KDP's withdrawal from the Regional parliament elections is premature, confirming that ?t will hold a meeting to discuss the matter.
Saadi Ahmed Pira, a PUK leader, stated, "The Political Bureau will hold a meeting t? discuss the Kurdistan Democratic Party's decision t? withdraw from the Kurdistan Parliament elections."
"The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) believes that conducting the Kurdistan Region's parliamentary elections is crucial for enhancing democracy and navigating through the current complex situation both domestically and regionally," stated Pira in his announcement.
He emphasized, "The reinstatement of the parliament holds great importance for fulfilling the legislative body's legal obligations and addressing the diverse challenges faced by the people of Kurdistan."
Luqman Wardi, Deputy Chairman of the PUK faction in the fifth session of the Kurdistan Parliament, told PUKMEDIA that the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court's rulings resulted from “manipulative games with Community seats in the Kurdistan Parliament. The PUK has consistently supported the idea of communities electing their own representatives to parliament."
"The Supreme Court's ruling on the four constituencies for the Kurdistan parliamentary elections will provide geographical balance in the parliament and prohibit any province from infringing on the rights of another province," he added. "Moreover, the Independent High Electoral Commission's supervision of the forthcoming parliamentary elections will ensure a transparent election process in the Region."
Shirin Younis, a PUK faction member in the fifth session of the Kurdistan Parliament, told PUKMEDIA that the PUK would continue to “protect the communities' rights and prevent any party from monopolizing their votes.”
She added, "Communities are able to send delegates to the 100 seats in the Kurdistan Parliament that the Federal Court has allotted. The Kurdish people will be the only beneficiaries of the multi-constituency elections. Similar to Iraq, a single constituency does not provide justice in the Kurdistan Region. For this reason, the PUK, which is concerned with promoting free and fair elections and building voter confidence in the system, has supported four constituencies."
Agreements "Thrown Out The Window"
Commenting on the Kurdistan Democratic Party's move, Sunni political leader Kamel Al-Ghrairi states, "When Al-Sudani government was formed, there were agreements with all political parties , whether Kurdish ?r Sunni, and all Shiite parties signed them. But what happened was a monopoly ?f power, and those agreements were thrown out the window, leading t? a conviction that there ?s n? future ?n the current political process."
Al-Ghrairi tells Shafaq News that "The Shiite parties did not respect and adhere t? those agreements, and ?f all agreements are not respected and implemented, withdrawals from the political process are expected, even from Sunni parties that have also not had their demands met and have been ignored."
He emphasizes that "the political process that began after 2003 was according t? a constitutional agreement, s? ?t must be implemented by giving the Region its rights and resolving outstanding issues. Engaging ?n problems with the Region weakens the state, the government, and the political process, and this ?s not ?n everyone's interest."
Baghdad and Diplomatic Circles Surprise
On the other hand, a well-informed political source told Shafaq News that the decision ?f "the Party" came as a surprise t? political parties ?n Baghdad, ?n addition t? diplomatic missions led by the US administration.
Last week, Judge Abdul Rahman Zibari, a Kurdish member ?f the Iraqi Federal Court, announced he was withdrawing from the court?n protest against recent decisions against the Kurdistan Region.
Some observers believed that the move was also a pressure card exercised by the Kurdistan Democratic Party ?n the Iraqi government, confirming that "the political process ?s not ?n solid ground, as the loser rules and the winner withdraws from the political process, although ?t was the largest bloc," referring t? the withdrawal ?f Al-Sadr movement.
"My efforts and expertise proved insufficient t? achieve the goal ?f safeguarding the Kurdistan Region's interests as a recognized constitutional entity," Zibari lamented during a press conference ?n Erbil.
In light ?f the accelerating political positions ?n solidarity with the Democratic Party's stance, the Turkmen Development Party announced its support for the KDP decision.
In a Facebook post, party leader Muhammad Muhammad Elkhani said that "other Kurdish parties should have the same honorable position as the KDP in boycotting the election." "It is strange that the Kurdish parties have chosen to remain silent even about their rights. How can they participate in elections that deprive their voters and communities of their rights?" he added.
In addition, an independent candidate joined the election boycotters, calling for its postponement.
The UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) called on the Kurdish parties to prioritize the people's interests and consider holding the parliamentary elections "essential."
"We take note of today's KDP decision, as we have taken note of the FSC decision last month. We call on all parties to work in the interest of the people, and thus towards solutions, rather than another prolonged impasse. The holding of the 10 June KRI elections is essential." UNAMI said in a statement.
The US Embassy in Iraq expressed concern regarding the Kurdistan Democratic Party's announcement to boycott the parliamentary elections in the Kurdistan Region.
"We are concerned by KDP's announcement to boycott the Iraqi Kurdistan Region elections. We urge the Government of Iraq & the Kurdistan Regional Government to ensure that elections are free, fair, transparent, & credible." US Ambassador Alina L. Romanowski said on X.
"All the people of Iraqi Kurdistan Region should have a voice in determining their future." She added.
In turn, Dr. Ihsan al-Shammari, the head ?f the Political Thought Center (Al-Tafkeer), says, "The decision ?f the Kurdistan Democratic Party ?s a message ?f protest against the decisions ?f the Federal Court, but ?n two directions: first, towards the Kurdish forces that have accepted the decisions ?f the Federal Court, and the other direction towards the State Administration Alliance, especially as Masoud Barzani has come t? realize that what has been achieved for the constitutional entity ?f the Kurdistan Region and federalism ?s gradually undermining."
Al-Shammari adds, "In addition, Barzani realizes that the issue ?f canceling the quotas may greatly affect his political weight as a party, and he finds that some ?f the recent decisions target the Kurdistan Democratic Party as a party - especially ?n the electoral issue - more than targeting the rest ?f the Kurdish forces."
Repetitive Scenarios
Observers believe that the decision ?f the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and before it, Al-Sadr movement, complements the decision t? exclude Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and his "Taqadum" party, after the Supreme Court also decided last November t? end his membership, while he was serving his second term as Parliament Speaker, a position he first held ?n 2018, as the most popular Sunni figure ?n the Iraqi scene.
"If the exclusion ?f al-Halbousi ?n the manner ?n which the attempt was made represents marginalization ?f the rights ?f Sunnis ?n choosing their representatives, and before that, al-Sadr as the most popular Shiite figure, then the sit-in protest ?f the Kurdistan Democratic Party now, the most prominent representative ?f the Kurds, means that the three main components ?n Iraq n? longer feel confident enough t? believe that the wheels ?f the Iraqi political system are capable ?f moving towards the future," according t? observers.
Al-Shammari explained to Shafaq News, "So ?t seems that the threat ?f not participating ?n the elections ?s a prelude t? withdrawal from the political process ?n a scenario similar t? (Muqtada) Al-Sadr scenario, and then I believe that this political process as a whole and the political map that led t? the government formation will be threatened with collapse."
The Sadrist movement withdrew from the political process ?n August 29, 2022, after its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, decided t? withdraw his bloc's MPs from parliament (76 seats out ?f 329).
Further, he decided to retire from political work following a series of major events that began with protests by the movement's supporters and ended with clashes inside the Green Zone in Baghdad with armed factions. This gave the "Coordination Framework" alliance a chance t? form the largest parliamentary bloc and then form the government.
Mediation Efforts Amid Iran-US Influence
Currently, Iran and the United States maintain a significant influence over Iraq's political system and economy, enjoying privileged access. On the other hand, Iraqis are internally divided, with many of their political elites maintaining close ties with Iran, mainly the Coordination Framework.
Political analyst Safaa al-Baghdadi expects "internal mediations, the activation ?f the diplomatic side, and the entry ?f external parties (regional and international) t? have a say ?n Iraq t? bring the Kurdistan Democratic Party back t? the political process ?n case ?t goes through with the boycott decision."
Despite Iran's influential position in Iraqi politics and the acknowledgment by Kurdish officials that Iran is an "important neighbor," its role in resolving the KDP issue is unlikely to be significant.
Tensions have escalated between Tehran and Erbil, particularly following Iran's attack on Erbil last January, targeting what it claimed to be an "Israeli spy headquarters" in Iraqi Kurdistan.
President Nechirvan Barzani has indicated that direct talks with Iran have not taken place since the attack.
In contrast, Kurdistan maintains positive relations with Washington, although parties aligned with Iran view the U.S. presence in Iraq as an "occupation."
Therefore, attention may turn to the Iraqis themselves to sit around a dialogue table or resort to Arab countries, particularly Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as potential mediators in resolving this issue. otherwise, the epicenter of the political earthquake could hit other regions in Iraq.