Shafaq News/ Less than two weeks ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his willingness to restore ties with Syria and extended an "invitation" to bring back relations to "how they were in the past." The Turkish president went further, saying he might invite his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, to Ankara "anytime soon."
Al-Assad announced that he would respond positively to any initiative that aims to improve bilateral ties but stressed that the basis for such talks must be set first.
Erdogan and Al-Assad: Close-Far Ties
In 2011, diplomatic ties between Ankara and Damascus were cut off when protests turned into a civil war in Syria. Turkiye supported armed opposition groups in the northwest that aimed to oust the Syrian president from power.
Before that, Erdogan and Al-Assad enjoyed close ties, even vacationing together with their families in southern Turkiye in 2008. However, since last week, both have made several remarks indicating their readiness to end tensions and normalize diplomatic relations.
"Yesterday, we were not enemies with Syria. We met with Al-Assad as a family," Erdogan told journalists last week on a flight from Berlin, where he watched Turkiye play the Netherlands in the quarter-final of the European Championship's soccer tournament. "We talk about mediation everywhere, so why not with the one on our border?"
Speaking at a NATO summit in Washington, Erdogan said he had called on Al-Assad two weeks ago to either come to Turkiye for the meeting or to hold it in a third country and that he had assigned Turkiye's foreign minister to follow up.
Last year, the Turkish and Syrian foreign ministers met in Moscow alongside counterparts from Russia and Iran, marking the highest-level contact between Ankara and Damascus since the start of the Syrian war. Those talks and a previous meeting involving the two countries' defense ministers also did not bear fruit. However, the Turkish-Syrian statements reflected the two countries' readiness to turn the page on their deep differences and to break through the current situation.
On Saturday, Erdogan announced the imminent end of his government's operations against Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) fighters in northern Iraq and Syria.
"We will close the lock very soon in the Claw Operation Zone in northern Iraq," Erdogan said. "In Syria, we will complete the missing links of the security belt along our southern border, based on Syria's territorial integrity," referring to the Turkish army's operations in northern Syria against the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG).
However, Syria's President Al-Assad on Monday said he would only meet the Turkish president if the two countries could focus on the core issues of Ankara's support for "terrorism" and the pullout of Turkish forces from Syrian territory.
"The problem is not the meeting, but its content," a video released by the presidency showed Al-Assad telling reporters in Damascus.
Iraq: Nucleus Of Understanding
Baghdad was already throwing its hat into the ring in hopes of brokering a historic restoration of ties between Ankara and Damascus. The proposal came after Baghdad received signals of openness to rapprochement from both sides, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told following the conclusion of the NATO summit.
Hussein's remarks confirmed an earlier report by the Syrian daily newspaper Al-Watan that the first round of talks to normalize relations would be held in Baghdad.
Meanwhile, Syrian diplomats said any normalization of ties would depend on Ankara withdrawing troops from its territory, according to state news agency SANA.
Turkiye has control over a large territory in northern Syria as a result of operations between 2016 and 2020.
Normalization is contingent on returning to "pre-2011 conditions and that it is in the common interest of both nations," said a statement from Syria's Foreign Ministry.
"The Syrian Arab Republic expresses its thanks and appreciation to the friendly and brotherly countries that are making sincere efforts to improve Syrian-Turkish relations," it added.
The Russian-mediated direct talks between Turkish and Syrian officials in 2022 ended without success, as Damascus insisted on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory.
Observers suggest that Erdogan's announcement of the imminent end of military operations is aimed at removing a key obstacle hindering Damascus from greenlighting a meeting. His recent remarks on the necessity of reconciliation with Damascus reflect Turkiye's genuine desire to resolve the issue, as multiple stakes are involved.
Iraq's Mediation: What To Expect?
Expected outcomes of Iraqi mediation, according to observers, include:
- Regional stability benefiting Ankara, Baghdad, and Damascus.
- Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's pursuit of a significant diplomatic achievement to enhance Baghdad's image as a hub for dialogue and peace before the 2025 parliamentary elections.
- Erdogan addressing domestic frustration over millions of Syrian refugees.
- Erdogan countering opposition criticism for delaying the resolution of the Syrian war and refugee crisis, with some opposition figures pledging to engage with Assad independently.
- PM al-Sudani fostering calm internal and regional conditions to advance the "Development Road" project, which has garnered interest from the UAE and Qatar.
- Successful mediation boosting Al-Sudani's standing within the "Shiite Coordination Framework," whose factions maintain strong ties with Damascus and Tehran.
- Al-Assad and Erdogan addressing issues of "self-administration" in eastern Syria and armed factions in Idlib, underscored by recent protests in Turkish-controlled areas.
- Reducing Turkish-Syrian tensions, with potential political and economic gains for Ankara, Baghdad, Tehran, and Damascus.
- Positively impacting the political and security stability and economic interests of the Kurdistan Region.
- Al-Assad demonstrating regime stability and offering Syrians hope that the decade-long conflict might be nearing an end if relations with Turkiye improve and contain armed factions.
- Ankara and Damascus preparing for the US presidential election outcomes, where a possible Trump administration might withdraw US troops from eastern Syria, with similar considerations by the Biden administration post-election.
- The Syrian regime attracting investments and attempting to circumvent US "Caesar Act" sanctions.