Shafaq News/ Iraq has ramped up security along its border with Syria following the release of dozens of Islamic State (ISIS) militants from the al-Hol camp by Kurdish forces.
Increased Security Concerns
Ahmad al-Sharifi, a strategic expert, told Shafaq News Agency that Iraqi forces have increased patrols along the frontier and are closely monitoring the situation in northeastern Syria's al-Hol camp. "The camp houses more than 50,000 ISIS members of various nationalities and ages, guarded by only 400 to 500 Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) personnel," al-Sharifi said. "This makes it difficult to maintain tight control over the camp. Therefore, there is concern about the potential collapse of security in the al-Hol camp. The greatest danger will be on Syria and Iraq, and the threat to Iraq is heightened due to the presence of 16,000 to 17,000 individuals of Iraqi nationality in the camp."
He added that the SDF, facing a potential confrontation with Turkiye, has begun releasing militants to free up manpower for the frontlines. "Over 148 ISIS fighters have already been released, and this number is expected to rise to 1,200 or 1,400." Al-Sharifi expressed concern that the released militants, many of whom are familiar with the local terrain and possess combat skills, could easily infiltrate Iraq and pose a significant security threat. "The porous nature of the Iraq-Syria border, coupled with the ongoing conflict in the region, creates ideal conditions for ISIS to regroup and launch attacks."
"Iraq needs a new strategy to secure all its borders and address the issue of Turkish forces operating in the Kurdistan Region," al-Sharifi said. "The current situation requires Iraq to be prepared for a potential escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, which could spread to Al-Anbar governorate or even the Baghdad belt."
Warns of Security Risks
Saif al-Saad, an Iraqi political analyst, said that the release of over 1,200 ISIS detainees from the Syrian camp burdens the security situation in Iraq. "This is a time bomb that could explode at any moment," he said.
The United States has repeatedly warned of a resurgence of ISIS, with the militant group claiming responsibility for many sporadic attacks against civilian and military targets since its fall. "These American warnings came after the pardon of 1,261 ISIS members who were detained in the al-Hol camp as part of a community reconciliation deal following discussions with the Syrian side and the SDF forces. These ISIS members who were released were from the Syrian side. Still, their release at this time and in this sensitive situation has serious repercussions for Iraq, especially since Iraqi forces have begun to recover after a long war since 2014 and the subsequent liberation operations until 2017. Therefore, this issue has raised concerns on the Iraqi side, prompting it to declare a state of alert on the borders."
He also suggested that the US and the International Coalition might be "using the ISIS threat as leverage to maintain their presence in Iraq." He drew parallels between the 2011 US withdrawal and the subsequent return of troops in 2014 following ISIS's rise. "When political differences arise and pressure mounts regarding the issue of withdrawing American forces and ending the mission of the International Coalition in Iraq, this topic dominates the media. This was evident during the previous US withdrawal in 2011 and their return in 2014," according to al-Saadi. While ruling out a repeat of the 2014 scenario, al-Saadi cautioned that ISIS could still launch targeted attacks to assert its presence, calling for "continued US and international support to fully eradicate the group, particularly in remote areas, like Khan Bani Saad."
ISIS Release Doubts
However, security expert Sarmad al-Bayati has cast doubt on claims that Islamic State fighters were among those released under an amnesty by the Syrian Democratic Forces, saying those freed were from camps other than al-Hol. Al-Bayati explained, "The individuals released were not from al-Hol camp but from Ghwayran camp in Hasaka and a camp in Qamishli, Syria. These were included in Amnesty Law No. 10 issued by the Syrian Democratic Forces, which saw the release of 1,200 people in batches during 2024."
Al-Bayati told Shafaq News that "while rumors have circulated of ISIS members infiltrating Iraq from Turkiye, there is no concrete evidence to support these claims. He added that the SDF's amnesty law, which has seen 1,200 people released, specifically excludes ISIS members." Al-Bayati added, "There are rumors about some ISIS members infiltrating through the Turkish border, which was corroborated by a telegram from the West Nineveh Command confirming this issue. This has caused confusion and fear despite the lack of confirmed ISIS infiltration so far." "The intelligence agencies must release a statement to shed light on this issue," he said.