Shafaq News/ Middle East tensions have surged as an implicit "green light" from the US allows Israel to override established "red lines" and engagement rules. This shift is evident in recent targeted assassinations, including the killing of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukr in Beirut, strikes against Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Jurf al-Sakhar, and the assassination of Hamas's chief of political bureau Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Messages from Israel and the US.
In this context, retired Major General Imad Ali, a military and strategic expert, stated that the three operations in Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq are "messages from Israel and the US" He told Shafaq News Agency that "Israel appears to believe that the expected reactions from the Axis of Resistance (pro-Iranian groups mainly in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen) will not match the scale of the crimes and violations Israel is committing against the defenseless people in Gaza and the West Bank."
"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu desires to broaden the war and compel Western countries, particularly the US, to engage in extensive military operations against the Axis in the Middle East." Ali pointed out.
Highlighting the US's unlimited support for Israel, Ali explained that Washington's actions are aimed at "demonstrating its commitment to protecting the Zionist entity and defending it through its involvement in strikes against resistance factions in Iraq, as well as the continued targeting of PMF forces and bases, which have clearly opposed the presence of American troops on Iraqi territory."
Ali anticipated significant escalation and tension in the region, predicting that it would mark a "strategic and historical turning point in the conflict with the Zionist entity, which will have political ramifications for the Middle East and the world, observable in the coming days or weeks."
Removal of Red Lines
Security expert Mukhled Hazem Al-Darb noted that Netanyahu's recent visit to the US and his meeting with Congress provided him with a green light from the lobby there. Hence, "what we have witnessed are operations that have removed all red lines and normal engagement rules."
Al-Darb explained that "Israel has begun targeting a military figure within Hezbollah's operational and military leadership, creating a disruption given the difficulty in compensating for the loss of political and first-line leaders. This has been a pattern of Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah's field commanders."
Regarding US strikes on PMF bases in Iraq, Al-Darb stated that Washington views these factions as "having a significant role in the Axis against the Zionist entity," mentioning that the targeted area included logistical support depots for Brigade 47, previously a military manufacturing facility now used for storing PMF equipment. "Targeting these depots impacts the military and armament infrastructure of resistance factions."
The most recent operation, targeting Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, serves as a demonstration of the capability to penetrate and target any individual regardless of their location. According to Al-Darb, such targeting often relies on ground intelligence sources, as seen in previous Iranian operations.
Al-Darb suggested that Haniyeh's assassination might mark the beginning of an open and comprehensive war if Israel faces an impactful attack. However, he noted that Iran, based on its current assessments, may not engage directly with Israel since Haniyeh was not an Iranian official but a guest of the Islamic Republic. Therefore, the response may come through its allies within the resistance axis.
A Significant Blow
Strategic analyst Dr. Alaa al-Nashou remarked that "the strike on Jurf al-Sakhar was a response to the recent attack on Ain al-Asad base, serving as a message to all factions threatening US and coalition forces in Iraq," revealing that Jurf al-Sakhar is a critical base from which drones were launched against Israel.
Dr. al-Nashou also highlighted that the killing of Haniyeh in Iran represents a "severe blow to Iranian air defense and technology, exposing weaknesses in confronting aerial breaches." He described the assassination as a significant setback for Iran's political entity, which had been vocal in supporting Hamas and protecting its leaders. "This incident reveals that Iran's promises to the movement against Israel have resulted in disastrous outcomes."
A Shift Towards Escalation
Security expert Haitham al-Khazali observed that "the Zionist entity's aggression in southern Beirut, targeting a high-ranking Hezbollah leader, and the US strikes on PMF fighters in Jurf al-Sakhar, alongside the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, suggest a shift towards escalation. Netanyahu appears to have received approval to escalate to a higher level."
Al-Khazali noted that "the entity possesses technology and is supported by the US, which manages, plans, and collaborates on intelligence and target identification. However, this entity seeks to achieve a media victory. The response to these crimes will make it regretful, and the US will not be able to save it in the coming days."