Shafaq News/ Recent Israeli assassinations of key figures, including Hezbollah’s topmilitary commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas’s political leader IsmailHaniyeh in Tehran, have heightened regional tensions and put Iraq’s stabilityin jeopardy. These attacks threaten major escalation across a Middle Eastalready volatile from last year’s Gaza war, according to a US Stimson Centerreport.
Theassassination of Haniyeh in Tehran has significantly shaken the confidence ofIran-aligned Iraqi leaders in Iran’s ability to ensure the safety of visitingdignitaries. A prominent Iraqi official noted, "The inability of Iran toprotect Haniyeh has led to doubts about Iran's security assurances." TheIslamic Republic of Iran and Hezbollah are expected to respond, though thetiming and nature of their actions remain uncertain.
Due toIraq’s strategic location and the presence of US troops, the country risksbecoming a focal point if the conflict widens. On August 5, a rocket attack onthe Ain al-Asad base injured several US servicemen, further escalatingtensions. Given Iraq’s fragmented political landscape and the influence of “pro-Iranmilitias,” the potential impact of a broader regional conflict could be severe.
Based on thereport, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani faces challenges in navigatingthis crisis while attempting to keep Iraq neutral amid the proxy war betweenIran and the US Despite efforts to mediate regional conflicts and improve tieswith Sunni neighbors, al-Sudani's government struggles with internal andexternal pressures. The planned $17 billion Development Road project, aimed attransforming Iraq into a regional trade hub, faces uncertainty due to ongoingregional tensions and Iranian opposition.
Whileal-Sudani successfully brokered a tentative truce earlier this year, recentevents, including the rocket attack on August 5, cast doubt on the truce'sdurability. The Iraqi government condemned the attack, but it remains to beseen how such statements will affect Iraq if US retaliation occurs.
Moreover, ArabGulf states have shown increased willingness to invest in Iraq to bolster itseconomic recovery and reduce Iranian influence. However, a full-scale regionalconflict could undermine these efforts and jeopardize Iraq's progress.
The reportfurther revealed that despite some pro-Iran factions in Iraq expressinghesitation about retaliation, Iran's strategic interests in Iraq remain intact.Tehran’s approach aims for a stable yet strategically beneficial Iraq thatfacilitates the transfer of arms and funds to Hezbollah via Syria. Although therecent assassinations demonstrate Israeli intelligence superiority, Iran’sfundamental strategies are unlikely to change. The risk of escalating violenceremains, with potential repercussions for Iraq’s stability.
As theregion braces for potential Iranian and Israeli responses, de-escalationefforts led by the US and other powers, including a durable Gaza ceasefire, arecrucial to mitigating the impact on Iraq’s fragile stability.
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