Shafaq News/ Iraq's efforts tonavigate its complex geopolitical landscape are increasingly evident as itseeks a balance between maintaining strong ties with the United States andaccommodating Iranian influence within its borders. While Iraq requires robustinternational support to confront any potential resurgence of ISIS, thegovernment faces the delicate task of managing relations with both the US andIran, according to a report from the American Media Line news agency.
Five years after the globalcoalition's decisive victory over ISIS in Baghuz, Syria, which marked the endof the group's territorial control in Iraq, the country remains mired inchallenges. Despite reclaiming significant territory and restoring stability inareas like Mosul by July 2017, Iraq is grappling with the repatriation of 1.1million displaced individuals, many of whom remain in refugee camps or havebeen resettled due to ongoing local conflicts.
Omar al Nidawi, a Middle Eastanalyst, highlighted to Media Line the ongoing difficulties, “In Sinjar [Iraq],Turkey and local militias, which are considered to be affiliated with the PKK,are still fighting. Other places in southwest Baghdad are still under thecontrol of the militias, and those areas are practically depopulated. Peopleare not allowed to go back home, and they make up about 3% of Iraq’spopulation.”
Based on the report, therepatriation efforts are hampered by unexploded munitions, widespreaddestruction, and pollution from previous ISIS activities. Additionally, Iraqfaces severe economic instability, with over 90% of its revenue reliant on oil.Al Nidawi explained, “If oil prices were to drop to $60 a barrel, Iraq is goingto be in deep trouble. It will be impossible to pay all the necessary stateservices as well as people’s wages.” He further noted, “The country’s economyis still very weak... Without real growth, especially within the privatesector... it is almost impossible for the government to employ all the peoplein need.”
Corruption also plagues Iraq, withUrban Coningham, a Research Fellow at RUSI, noting, “Corruption is almostentirely taking hold of the Iraqi government and civil service. This applies tothe Kurdish region as well.”
Although ISIS has not regained powerin Iraq, its influence persists globally, with growing strength in regions suchas the Sahel in Africa and Afghanistan. Al Nidawi remarked, “In Iraq, theterrorist group is weaker than ever,” attributing past gains to a combinationof the Syrian civil war, lack of US support, and a corrupt environment.
Florian Hartleb, a politicalscientist, emphasized to the American agency the need for vigilance, “The powerof this organization is to have influence outside the Middle East...Paradoxically, the threat of ISIS has to be monitored more in the West at themoment.”
Moreover, the report revealed that Iraqrecognizes the necessity of a strong ally like the US to counter any futureISIS resurgence and ensure economic stability. Despite calls for US withdrawal,Coningham pointed out, “NATO is also in Iraq... to counterbalance Iran’sinfluence in the country.” However, Iraq’s government appears to be passivelyallowing Iran to extend its influence among “Shia militias,” reflecting broaderregional shifts towards Iranian dominance.
Coningham warned, “The elephant inthe room... is that Iran is very close to acquiring nuclear weapons... Thiswill create a domino effect and an arms race in the Middle East. This won’t beonly a regional problem, but an international one.”
Giorgia Valente, a recent graduateof Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and an intern at The Media Line’s Press andPolicy Student Program, contributed to this report.
Disclaimer: The views presented bythe author do not necessarily reflect the official standpoint of Shafaq NewsAgency.