Shafaq News/ Amid the global focus on theIsrael-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah conflicts, the Islamic State (ISIS) isquietly reconstituting itself in Syria and Iraq, warns Gregory Aftandilian in arecent report by The Arab Center Washington DC.
Aftandilian emphasizes that the terrorist groupis exploiting the world's diverted attention to rebuild its capabilities,posing a renewed threat in the region. He highlights that US militarycommanders are already seeing signs of this resurgence, with the number of ISISattacks expected to double by the end of the year.
According to Aftandilian, several factors contributeto the group's revival. Ethnic tensions between Kurds of the Syrian DemocraticForces (SDF) and Arab tribes, poor economic conditions, and support from theSyrian and Turkish governments for anti-SDF elements have all played roles inISIS's recent resurgence. Aftandilian also points to the thousands of unrepatriatedforeign ISIS fighters and their families in SDF prisons as a continuing sourceof concern. He writes that these prisoners, along with recent ISIS attacks inOman and Iran, should serve as a "wake-up call" for the internationalcommunity.
In his analysis, Aftandilian notes that ISIS mayhave lost its territory but not its brand. He recalls that at its peak in 2014,ISIS controlled one-third of Syria and Iraq, establishing Raqqa as its de factocapital and seizing Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city. Aftandilian explains howthe group amassed significant resources during this time, including US militaryhardware and over $1 billion looted from Iraqi banks, which it used to fund itsoperations. However, by 2017, a large international coalition led by the UnitedStates had retaken these territories, culminating in the fall of Baghouz, thelast ISIS stronghold, in 2019. Despite this, Aftandilian stresses that ISISnever truly disappeared; thousands of fighters evaded capture and eitherblended in with local communities or retreated into the desert.
Aftandilian cites US Central Command (CENTCOM)data to illustrate the ongoing threat. "According to CENTCOM figures, ISconducted 153 attacks in Syria and Iraq in the first five months of this year.Charles Lister, a well-informed scholar of the organization, believes thenumber of attacks is actually much higher because the group no longer claimsall of the attacks it undertakes. CENTCOM has long worked closely with theKurdish-led SDF, Iraqi government forces, and Iraqi Kurdish militia forces tofight IS. The majority of such anti-IS operations this year have been carriedout in Iraq (137 missions), which resulted in the deaths of 30 militants andthe detention of 74 other fighters. In Syria, CENTCOM, in partnership with theSDF, conducted 59 missions, resulting in the deaths of 14 IS militants and thedetention of 92 others. In addition, CENTCOM says it will continue to "removekey [IS] leaders from the battlefield" and target those who seek to "conductexternal operations outside of Iraq and Syria" as well as those seeking tobreak fellow members out of prisons."
Aftandilian details the troubling signs of ISIS'sgrowing capabilities, pointing out that US military officers on the ground haveobserved "the movement of men, weapons, and equipment" by ISIS,indicating an increase in the group's operational capacity. Aftandilian alsohighlights attempts by ISIS to free jailed fighters, including a significantprison break in Hasakah, Syria, in 2022. He warns that prison camps housingISIS families, particularly the al-Hol camp, have become breeding grounds forradicalization, with children being indoctrinated with the group's extremistideology.
Moreover, Aftandilian discusses the broaderregional dynamics contributing to ISIS's resurgence. He notes that the grouphas taken advantage of the increased ethnic strife between Arab tribes and theKurdish-led SDF, which has been exacerbated by the Syrian regime and supportedby Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Lebanon's Hezbollah.Additionally, Aftandilian points out that Turkish airstrikes on SDF positionshave further weakened the group's ability to combat ISIS effectively.
The report also touches on the delicatenegotiations between the US and Iraqi governments regarding the future of UStroops in Iraq. Aftandilian explains that while there were discussions aboutwithdrawing most US forces by next September, the talks were postponed due tothe escalating threat from ISIS and pro-Iran militias. He suggests that apremature US military withdrawal could jeopardize anti-ISIS operations, leavingthe SDF vulnerable and undermining efforts to contain the terrorist group.
In conclusion, Aftandilian warns that “theinternational community must do a better job in dealing with imprisoned ISfighters and their families and not postpone the issue. It should also do whatit can to help rebuild the partially destroyed cities from the anti-IScampaign, as poor economic conditions feed into IS's recruitment drive. Thelast thing the troubled Middle East region needs is a fully resurgent IslamicState once again controlling large segments of territory and people with itshighly dangerous ideology and methods."
The views expressed in this article are theauthor’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of Shafaq News Agency