Dollar wallows at one-week low as payrolls test looms large

Last Update: 2024-09-06 10:50:35 - Source: Shafaq News

Shafaq News/The U.S. dollar sagged near a one-week low versus major peers on Friday withjob market indicators sending mixed signals ahead of crucial monthly payrollsdata later in the day that is almost certain to set the pace for FederalReserve policy easing.

The dollarindex , which gauges the currency against a basket of six key counterparts, wassteady at 101.03 as of 0015 GMT, after slipping about 0.2% overnight andtouching 100.96 for the first time since Aug. 29. For the week, it has droppedclose to 0.7%.

A report onThursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for joblessbenefits declined last week as layoffs remained low. That helped allay fearsthat the labor market was deteriorating rapidly, after figures released theprevious day showed private jobs growth slumped to a 3-1/2-year low in August.

The mixeddata leaves traders guessing before Friday's payrolls print, with economists surveyedby Reuters predicting an increase of 165,000 jobs in August, up from a 114,000rise in July.

What the Fedmakes of the numbers will be almost immediately obvious, with both GovernorChristopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams separately takingto the podium in the final Fedspeak before the blackout period begins ahead ofthis month's policy gathering.

Traderscurrently see 40% odds for a super-sized 50-basis point (bp) Fed interest ratecut on Sept. 18, versus 60% probability of a quarter-point reduction, accordingto the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A day earlier, wagers on the larger cut stoodat 44%, but a week ago it was 34%.

Fed ChairJerome Powell signaled the central bank's focus was shifting from fightinginflation to preventing deterioration in the jobs market when he stronglyendorsed an imminent start to the monetary easing cycle at the annual economicconference in Jackson Hole last month.

"Recentlabor data has fanned fears of labor market softening (and) the August payroll reportcould be a 'make or break' moment," TD Securities analysts including headof global strategy Rich Kelly wrote in a report.

However, TDexpects 205,000 jobs were added in August, setting up a quarter point cut thismonth, and triggering a dollar rebound.

"Thereis simply lots of bad news priced into the USD, increasing the risks that astring of good news will kick-start a sizeable correction."

The dollarwas steady at 143.25 yen , after dipping to 142.855 overnight for the firsttime since Aug. 5, pressured by a slide in U.S. Treasury yields, with that onthe 10-year note dipping to a one-month trough of 3.721%.

The euroheld its ground at $1.1112, just below Thursday's one-week high of $1.11195.

Sterling waslittle changed at $1.31755, sticking close to the overnight top at $1.31855,the strongest level since Aug. 30.

Therisk-sensitive Australian dollar edged down slightly to $0.6739.

Leadingcryptocurrency bitcoin rose 0.2% to $56,167, attempting to recover from itsslump to a nearly one-month low of $55,575.78 this week.

(Reuters)