Shafaq News/ Kirkuk, an oil-rich governorate atthe center of longstanding territorial and political disputes between Iraq'scentral government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), is once again afocal point of tensions as calls to delay the upcoming national census growlouder. Local political actors are concerned that the census could shift thedelicate balance of power in the region, with many viewing it as a potentialtool to reshape the demographic landscape.
While the census is seen as essential fornational planning, critics argue that the timing is inappropriate in a region as contested as Kirkuk. Political and ethnic groups, particularly the Kurds,Arabs, and Turkmen, have voiced concerns that the census may be used toundermine their claims or bolster those of their rivals.
Ministry of Planning: Census to Proceed
Despite these concerns, Iraq’s Ministry ofPlanning announced that it will move forward with the nationwide census,including in Kirkuk. On Monday, Abdul Zahra al-Hindawi, the Ministry’sspokesperson, expressed surprise at the calls for delay, emphasizing that thecensus is not politically motivated but purely intended for economic anddevelopmental purposes.
"The Ministry of Planning is committed toconducting the census across all Iraqi governorates, including Kirkuk,"al-Hindawi told Shafaq News Agency. "We’ve made significant progress sincethe start of the data collection on September 1, and the census will continueas scheduled."
Al-Hindawi stressed that the census is anecessary step to address Iraq’s rapid population growth, which exceeded 43million by the end of last year. "Iraq is witnessing a population increaseof more than one million people annually. The census will help determine theactual needs of each governorate in terms of health, education, housing, andservices," he added.
Economic and Developmental Focus
The Ministry has sought to distance the censusfrom any political connotations, framing it as a purely administrative exerciseaimed at ensuring a fair distribution of resources based on population size."The census is an economic and developmental tool, not a political one. Itwill provide data essential for future planning, including the equitabledistribution of wealth across Iraq’s governorates," al-Hindawi said.
He further reassured all communities in Kirkuk,including Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen, that the census is a neutral endeavoraimed at benefiting everyone equally. "The census is designed to identifydevelopmental gaps, and its results will be used to enhance services for allIraqis," he noted.
However, these assurances have done little toassuage the concerns of many in Kirkuk, particularly Kurdish leaders who viewthe census as a potential flashpoint in the ongoing struggle over thegovernorate’s political status.
Kurdish Concerns: Article 140 and DemographicDisplacement
Among the most vocal critics of the census isMohammad Kamal, head of the third branch of the Kurdistan Democratic Party(KDP) in Kirkuk. In a press conference last week, Kamal acknowledged theimportance of preparations for the census but called for a postponement inKirkuk until the implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution.
"The preparations for the census arenecessary, but the situation in Kirkuk is different from the rest ofIraq," Kamal said. "The governorate is not ready for this process,and many displaced Kurds have yet to return."
Kamal’s reference to Article 140 highlights theunderlying political issues that make the census so contentious in Kirkuk.
Article140 is a constitutional provision that outlines the steps needed to resolveterritorial disputes in areas like Kirkuk, which are claimed by both Baghdadand the KRG.
The article mandates a three-step process:normalization, a census, and a referendum. These steps were supposed to becompleted by December 31, 2007, but have remained largely unfulfilled, leavingKirkuk’s political status unresolved.
Historical Context: Article 140 and Kirkuk’sDisputed Status
At the heart of Kurdish demands is theimplementation of Article 140, which many view as essential to addressing thedemographic changes imposed by Saddam Hussein’s regime. During the 1980s,Saddam forcibly displaced thousands of Kurds from Kirkuk and replaced them withArabs in an attempt to change the ethnic balance in the region.
Kamal noted that in 1988, the Ba'ath regimedestroyed over 4,500 Kurdish villages, relocating their inhabitants to theKurdistan Region. "Many of these displaced residents are still living inthe Kurdistan Region, and conducting a census without accounting for thishistorical injustice would distort the results," he warned.
For Kurdish leaders, addressing the legacy offorced displacement and implementing Article 140 are prerequisites to anymeaningful census in Kirkuk. They argue that moving forward with the censusbefore resolving these issues could lead to skewed results, exacerbatingtensions in an already volatile region.
Sinjar: Concerns Over IDP Return Before theCensus
Similar concerns are being raised in other partsof Iraq, particularly in the Sinjar district of Nineveh, where many internallydisplaced persons (IDPs) have yet to return following years of conflict.Mohammad Ahrees, a member of the Nineveh Council, emphasized the importance ofensuring the return of displaced residents before the census is conducted.
"The situation in Sinjar is improving, withprogress being made in security and service projects," Ahrees said."However, the return of displaced persons is crucial before the censustakes place. This will allow for an accurate assessment of the population,which is essential for determining the needs of the region."
Ahrees underscored that the census will play akey role in documenting population and housing data, which in turn will helpthe central government allocate resources to areas based on their real needs."The return of displaced residents to their areas will ensure that thecensus reflects the true demographic makeup of Sinjar and helps guide futuredevelopment projects," he added.
Broader Implications: Political Power andResource Distribution
The stakes for the census are high, not just inKirkuk but across Iraq. The census will be the first comprehensive populationcount since 1987 when Saddam Hussein’s regime conducted the last nationwidecensus. A subsequent census was held in 1997 but excluded the Kurdistan Region,leaving Iraq without accurate population data for decades.
Since 2003, the KRG has pushed for Kirkuk to beincorporated into its territory, a move that Baghdad has resisted. The censuswill be pivotal in determining whether the Kurds constitute the largest ethnicbloc in Kirkuk, potentially strengthening their claim to the governorate.
For Iraq as a whole, the census is necessary fordetermining the population within the Kurdistan Region, which will influenceits share of national revenue, currently set at around 12%. The census willalso have remarkable implications for resource distribution, particularly oilrevenue, which remains a key source of tension between Baghdad and Erbil.
Hopes and Fears: Political Manipulation andDemographic Shifts
Despite the Ministry of Planning’s assurances,fears of political manipulation continue to loom over the census. Ethnic groupsin disputed territories like Kirkuk are wary that the results could shift the balanceof power in ways that either bolster or undermine their political aspirations.
The Kurds, in particular, fear that the censuscould fail to account for the displaced population, thereby skewing the resultsin favor of Arab and Turkmen groups. On the other hand, Arab and Turkmenleaders have expressed concerns that the census could solidify Kurdish claimsto Kirkuk, further complicating efforts to resolve the region’s disputedstatus.
For Iraq, a country still recovering fromdecades of conflict and ethnic violence, the census represents both anopportunity and a risk. If conducted fairly, it could provide much-neededclarity and help guide future development efforts. But if mishandled, it coulddeepen existing divisions and fuel further tensions.
As Iraq moves forward with the census, the eyesof the nation will be on Kirkuk, where the results could have far-reachingimplications for the future of the governorate and the country as a whole.