Shafaq News/ The timeline for thewithdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq remains uncertain amid ongoingpolitical and security challenges in the region. Analysts have expressedconcerns about the feasibility of meeting the stated deadlines given thecomplex geopolitical landscape.
Major Questions, Various Factors
"These deadlines are not set instone but rather represent decisions that can be postponed," said HaithamAl-Luhaybi, a US-based political analyst. "The major question is whetherthese decisions will be implemented, which depends on a variety of factors,including the formation of the next Iraqi government and the politicalsituation both Iraq and the Middle East."
Al-Luhaybi explained to Shafaq Newsthat the US-Iraq relations are key to determining the withdrawal process,stating, "the implementation of the withdrawal agreement depends on therelationship between Iraq and the United States, which is currently under aDemocratic administration. We do not know who will govern the White House inthe coming years and whether their approach will align with the currentdirection of withdrawal, especially in light of the various politicalvariables."
Within Iraq, the analyst pointed tothe complex relations between Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish forces as a potentialstumbling block. "The internal Iraqi situation and the relationshipbetween the Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish parties raise questions about whetherthe current balance will remain or change, and whether [Prime Minister]al-Sudani will remain in power or if there will be splits and confrontations,especially in light of the problems within the ruling CoordinationFramework," he said.
Security concerns, including thethreat posed by ISIS and other groups, also cast doubt on the withdrawaltimeline. "Will the threats of ISISand militias in Iraq end? And what about the impact of the Israeli-Iranianconflict on Iraq?"
Al-Luhaybi asked, "all of theabove factors are what really determine how will the foreign forces withdraw,not the formal agreements that are made under normal conditions with relativelyinternal and regional security. Therefore, it is unlikely that the decisionwill be implemented but will be postponed and extended again in light of thecurrent circumstances in Iraq and the region."
Is Iraq ready?
A member of Iraq's parliamentarySecurity and Defense Committee has expressed confidence in the country'ssecurity situation, which he said paves the road for a complete withdrawal offoreign troops.
Ali Naeem al-Bandawi, a member ofthe committee, said that "except for the Turkish violations, which are dueto political issues and agreements, Iraq's border security is stable. But ingeneral, Iraqi forces are deployed along the borders of neighboring countriesand inside the governorate."
"The remnants of ISIS have beenreduced to just a few gangs, and Iraqi forces are pursuing them in theirhideouts. There were concerns about camps containing terrorists and theirfamilies, but the military leadership assured us that there is complete controlover the borders, and the necessary precautions and measures have beentaken."
Despite the positive assessments,al-Bandawi emphasized the need for Iraq to acquire more advanced weapons, airdefense systems, and new generation aircraft. "This depends on Iraq'spurchasing power as well as the response of manufacturing countries to Iraq'srequests," he said.
New Defense Strategy
Ali al-Muammari, a security expert,highlighted the necessity of arming Iraqi forces with sophisticated artillerysystems and training them in urban warfare and counter-insurgency tactics."The Iraqi Armed Forces need to be equipped with modern, computer-guidedartillery to ensure accurate targeting," he said. "Additionally, theIraqi Air Force requires advanced aircraft and surveillance capabilities togather intelligence on terrorist remnants and criminal gangs."
Sarmad al-Bayati, another securityexpert, expressed confidence that the international coalition would providesupport to Iraq in case of any security emergencies. However, he emphasized theimportance of Iraq taking full responsibility for its security. "Thedecision to withdraw the coalition forces is correct and aligns with thegovernment's plan," he said. "The next step will be to consolidatestate control over all weapons."
Ending US-Led Coalition Mission InIraq
Last week, the United Statesformally announced that the coalitionmission in Iraq will come to a close in September 2025, but emphasized thattroops will remain in the country as part of an “evolution of the militarymission in Iraq.”
“To be clear, the United States isnot withdrawing from Iraq,” a senior administration official told reporters.“We are moving towards the type of productive long-term security relationshipthat the United States has with partners around the world.”
The US and Iraq have agreed “on atwo-phase transition plan for operations in Iraq,” the official said. “In thefirst phase, we’ll be concluding the global coalition’s military mission inIraq, the Combined Joint Task Force Inherent Resolve, and ending the presenceof coalition forces in certain locations in Iraq as mutually determined.”
That phase will begin this month andfinish by the end of September 2025.
The second phase involves an“understanding to allow the coalition to continue to support counter-ISISoperations in Syria from Iraq … until at least September 2026,” the officialsaid.
“While ISIS is down, they are notout,” the official said. “ISIS continues to pose a real threat althoughdiminished in Iraq and the wider region. Together the US, Iraq and thecoalition remain committed to the defeat to defeat the core ISIS threat. We planto continue focusing on that important task as we head into the future.”
The official did not specify thenumber of troops – US or coalition allies – that would be leaving Iraq. Reuterspreviously reported that “hundreds of troops” would be departing.
Analysts described the announcementas a “drawdown” rather than a total “withdrawal.” Norman Ricklefs, CEO ofgeopolitical consultancy firm NAMEA Group, said, “It will be conditions-based,so that hopefully we will not see a disaster as we saw when troops completelywithdrew in 2011 and left behind a security vacuum that was filled by ISIS.”
"New Partnership"
The UK government has announced thatit will end its military mission in Iraq as part of the broader GlobalCoalition against ISIS winding down operations.
"The UK will work closely withour Iraqi partners to develop an enduring bilateral relationship during thecoming months, as part of the transition to a new security and defensepartnership with Iraq," a UK Defense Ministry statement said.
"The RAF have also conductedmore than 10,000 sorties striking more than 1400 targets, as well as providingcritical surveillance and reconnaissance in support of ISF groundoperations," the statement added.
The UK government praised theprofessionalism of UK personnel who have served in Iraq and acknowledged thebravery and effectiveness of the Iraqi Security Forces, Peshmerga, and thecoalition's continued commitment in defeating ISIS.
With the territorial defeat of ISISin Iraq, the UK will transition its support to a new bilateral relationshipfocused on long-term stability in the country. "Our commitment to thesecurity of Iraq and the wider region remains unwavering," the statementconcluded.
The United States and Iraq haveannounced that the US-led coalition in the country to fight ISIS will wind downby the end of 2025, but they left the door open to a prolonged militarypresence.
The joint announcement on Friday didnot specify what the future of US troops in Iraq will be, with officialsstressing that the move represents more of a “transition” than a “withdrawal”.
A senior official from US PresidentJoe Biden’s administration who briefed reporters said the wind-down wouldinvolve two phases.
The first phase – expected to end inSeptember 2025 – will include “ending the presence of coalition forces incertain locations in Iraq as mutually determined”, the official said.
The second phase would see the UScontinue to operate in Iraq in some capacity “at least through” 2026 to supportongoing anti-ISIS coalition efforts in Syria.
US-Iraq defense ties would thenshift away from the coalition to “an expanded US-Iraqi bilateral securityrelationship”, the official said. They declined to say whether that shift wouldsignal a full withdrawal of US troops.
“We’re not in a position right nowto begin to either speculate or discuss exactly where we’re going to end up onall of it,” the official said.
The US initially invaded Iraq in2003 as part of its so-called global “war on terror” in the wake of theSeptember 11, 2001, attacks, with a peak of 170,000 troops deployed by 2007.
Washington withdrew most US forcesfrom Iraq by 2011.
However, the administration of USPresident Barack Obama again redeployed forces to the country in 2014, as ISISoverran large swaths of Iraq and Syria.
While ISIS continues to exist, thegroup lost control of its last pieces of territory in Iraq in 2017 and in Syriain 2019.
Then, in 2021, the Bidenadministration ended what it described as a US “combat mission” in Iraq, withthe about 2,500 US troops in the country shifting to an “advisory role”.
Talks about further winding downtroops began in January and included Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaal-Sudani, as well as top-ranking officials from both the Iraqi armed forcesand the US-led coalition.
The continued presence of US troopsin Iraq has been a political thorn for Sudani and has long been opposed byinfluential segments of the government.
Bases housing US soldiers have foryears come under attack by Iran-aligned factions.
Those attacks increased in the earlymonths of Israel’s war in Gaza, which began in October 2023 but have sincereduced in frequency.