Shafaq News/The upcoming sixth parliamentary election in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq isset to see a 6% decline in the number of eligible voters compared to theprevious term, despite the inclusion of new-age groups now qualified to vote.The drop has raised concerns over the reasons behind it, with experts pointingto migration, administrative challenges, and potential demographic shifts.
DeclineDespite Historical Growth Trends
According todata from the Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq, 2,899,578 votersare eligible to cast their ballots in the upcoming elections, down from3,085,461 in the previous cycle. The decrease stands in contrast to the 16%increase witnessed in the fifth term compared to the fourth when the number ofeligible voters rose to 2,653,743.
Historically,the voter base in the Kurdistan Region has been growing steadily. The thirdparliamentary election saw a 10% increase in eligible voters compared to thesecond, with numbers rising by 228,037. The second term experienced a modest 1%increase over the first.
Migration'sImpact
Manyanalysts attribute the current decline to large-scale migration out of theKurdistan Region in recent years, driven by political and economic instability.
"Demographicchanges from migration have directly impacted the voter numbers. Many who leftthe country remain on voter lists, while the new generation eligible to votehas not been properly registered, leading to a gap," Haori Karzan, a localobserver, told Shafaq News Agency.
AdministrativeDelays
Administrativedelays in updating voter records are also contributing to the decline. ArslanMohammed, an election affairs expert, highlighted issues with removing thenames of deceased or emigrated individuals and the slow registration of newvoters.
"Ruralareas and regions with high population mobility face significant challenges inupdating voter databases, directly affecting the final voter count,"Mohammed explained.
The decreasein eligible voters ahead of the sixth term could affect voter turnout andpotentially influence the results, posing challenges for political partiesrelying on their traditional bases.
Lack OfAwareness And Registration
Anotherfactor contributing to the decrease is the lack of awareness among newlyeligible voters about the need for prior registration. "Many young peoplewho reached voting age are not sufficiently aware of the importance ofregistering for elections. The electoral commission has not effectivelycommunicated this message, especially in remote areas where access toinformation is limited," Karzan explained.
This lack ofawareness particularly affects new age groups, reducing the number of actualregistered voters.
TechnicalAnd Administrative Challenges
The systemsused to register voters and update their information continue to face technicalissues that lead to errors or delays in processing data. Political analystShukr Ahmad told Shafaq News Agency that "the systems used to update thevoter registry face numerous technical problems. In some cases, there aredelays in updating the data of new voters, and in others, the systems crash dueto data overload. These challenges directly reduce the number of registeredvoters."
Impact OfNew Age Groups
Interestingly,a significant number of new voters have become eligible to participate in thiselection, with a large segment of youth reaching the voting age of 18 overrecent years. Despite this, the expected increase in voter numbers has notmaterialized.
"Theinclusion of new-age groups should have boosted the number of voters, butadministrative and technical challenges hindered the registration of many ofthem. Moreover, some youth are disillusioned with the political and economicsituation, leading to a reluctance to register and participate," notedArslan Mohammed.
PoliticalImplications
The drop ineligible voters despite the inclusion of new voters could have a direct impacton election results. Political analyst Shukr Ahmad believed that "the politicalparties may be affected by the distribution of votes due to this decline.Changes in the voter base could lead to some parties losing their traditionalshares in certain areas, especially where there is weak voterregistration."
Thesefigures come as the countdown begins for the sixth parliamentary elections inthe Kurdistan Region, where the decline in eligible voters compared to previousterms could significantly influence voter turnout.