Shafaq News/ As the world faces a climate crisis, theonce-bountiful Euphrates and Tigris rivers in the Middle East are drying up,threatening agriculture and energy production in Iraq and the surroundingregion steeped in history.
In 2023, approximately 14% of the world's electricityconsumption was generated from hydroelectric plants. As revealed by theInternational Energy Agency (IEA), this figure must double by 2050 to achievethe goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
However, in the first half of 2023, global hydroelectricpower generation experienced a historic decline of 8.5% due to severe droughtsand dwindling rivers and reservoirs in China, the largest producer ofhydroelectric energy in the world.
With water scarcity increasing and future conflicts loomingover shared resources, urgent calls for innovative solutions and regionalcooperation grow louder.
Water Crisis Threatening Cradle of Civilization
Hydroelectric power stations in the Middle East have facedincreasing challenges due to prolonged drought conditions, particularly in aregion once considered one of the most fertile, where the Euphrates and Tigrisrivers flow. “Mesopotamia is one of the fastest-drying regions in the world,”said Benjamin Pohl, Head of Programme Climate Diplomacy and Security at theGerman research center Adelphi, during an interview with DW.
The two rivers originate in eastern Turkiye, traverse Syria,and flow into Iraq before emptying into the Gulf. “The system of these riversused to nourish the cradle of human civilization,” Pohl added. However, ongoingdrought, high evaporation rates, and low rainfall have led to a continuousdecline in water resources. Consequently, riparian countries are encounteringsignificant difficulties in supplying water for agricultural needs and powergeneration.
For hydroelectric stations built 30 years ago near thesources of the Tigris and Euphrates in Turkiye, energy production has decreasedby approximately 25%, according to studies conducted by Dursun Y?ld?z, Chairmanof the Board of Directors of the Water Policy Association.
“The decline in electricity production is closely linked tothe region’s drought,” the expert stated, attributing the decrease in rainfalland snow to climate change, and projecting that the current water level of theEuphrates River could drop by 30 to 40% by the end of the century. “Thisreduction in water availability will also impact downstream countries.”
Drought Dims Iraq's Lights
Iraq's electricity crisis is compounded by a decline in theflow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, as indicated by a study from SamirAl-Jubouri, an energy expert at Al-Kitab University in Kirkuk, northern Iraq.The flow dropped significantly in 2019, primarily because riparian countrieslike Turkiye are retaining water for irrigation and hydroelectric stations.Additionally, Benjamin Pohl noted that "dams in Iran also reduce waterflows into Iraq."
Al-Jubouri utilized 12 different climate models to assessthe decreasing water flow over the decades. He forecasted that climate changewill exacerbate this decline, potentially resulting in hydroelectric energyproduction losses ranging from 5% to 18% by 2050. Although these figures mayappear modest compared to Turkiye's current 25% reduction, the energy expertwarned during an interview with DW that such losses "will likely increasethe burden on Iraq’s energy system."
Currently, Iraq faces challenges in meeting its electricityneeds, making hydroelectric power a crucial renewable energy source to lessenits reliance on fossil fuels like oil and gas. The frequency of severe droughtsin the Tigris and Euphrates basins has markedly increased, occurringapproximately every 10 years now compared to every 250 years in the past. Thistrend is highlighted in a report from the World Weather Attribution (WWA)research center in London, which examines the connection between extremeweather events and climate change.
In light of the ongoing drought and extreme heat in Iraq,Al-Jubouri emphasized that renewable energy and the construction of moreefficient hydroelectric power stations could play a pivotal role in addressingclimate change and securing energy in a post-fossil-fuel era. He advocated forimproved resource management through water recycling and the establishment ofsmall dams to capture excess rainwater.
"Water recycling and small dams are valuable ways toaddress local water shortages and enhance drought resistance," Al-Jubouristated. "Climate-resilient agricultural practices and regional cooperationare essential for optimizing the use of precious water resources.”
Shared Waters, Shared Future
WWA calculations indicated that the drought in the Tigrisand Euphrates basins from 2020 to 2023 was classified as "the second-worstdrought on record," linked to rising temperatures. This extended dryperiod has significantly affected many people who depend on rainwater foragricultural irrigation.
"Some areas in Syria and Iraq have completely driedup," affirmed Naama Sharif, a Syrian researcher based in Germany and anexpert in water management in the Middle East and North Africa. The worseningdrought conditions have forced many residents to abandon their villages.
Sharif warned, "Future wars will be fought overwater," due to disputes over water shares and dam constructions,particularly in Turkiye, attributing the problem to “political factors."
The need for regional cooperation is urgent, according toSharif, who insisted, "We need to sit at the negotiating table" toaddress these challenges.
In this regard, German researcher Pohl concurred, notingthat improved cooperation and water management are "in everyone'sinterest" among the riparian countries along the Tigris and Euphrates. Hepointed out that collaboration is crucial for obtaining clean electricity fromhydroelectric plants and for mitigating the impacts of the climate crisis.
Countries affected by conflicts, such as Iraq and Syria, areactively seeking investments to adapt more effectively to climate change. Pohlhighlighted the importance of updating outdated agreements concerning theshared waters of the Tigris and Euphrates, stating it is critical to"boosting the use of resources in the entire region." However, henoted that negotiations for new binding agreements have yet to commence.
Iraq's Energy Diversification Initiatives
Iraq is actively seeking solutions to its energy crisisthrough strategic projects aimed at diversifying its energy resources andreducing reliance on Iranian imports. The recent inauguration of a115-kilometer power line connecting Turkiye and Iraq, which can deliver 300megawatts of electricity, represents a remarkable step in this strategy. Thisnew line aims to enhance power supply in northern Iraq, particularly inNineveh, Saladin, and Kirkuk, amid ongoing power outages and summer heat.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani emphasized theimportance of this project in linking Iraq to neighboring countries andincreasing energy security. The power line is part of a broader effort tointegrate into the regional energy grid, alongside initiatives to connect withthe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Jordan. As Iraq strengthens its energypartnerships with Turkiye and the GCC, it seeks to reshape its geopoliticalalliances while mitigating Iran's influence in its energy sector.
The Iraqi government's focus on energydiversification aligns with broader regional dynamics, as Tehran faces its ownchallenges in supplying power to Iraq due to internal inefficiencies andstrained infrastructure. By pursuing new energy connections, Iraq aims toachieve greater energy self-sufficiency and stability in the face ofclimate-related challenges, ultimately striving for a more sustainable andsecure energy future.