Ceasefire in Lebanon: What now for the Axis of Resistance?
Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire. With more than 3,800 dead in Lebanon in just over a year, the move comes as a relief to the inhabitants of a country that was already wracked by a devastating economic crisis and internal instability.
Despite this, both Israel and Hezbollah have claimed the truce as a victory. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war on Lebanon had set Hezbollah back "by decades", while the movement's supporters said its ability to endure after a year of bombardment proved its resilience.
Since October 2023, Hezbollah - along with other members of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance of anti-Israel countries and groups - pledged to attack and harass Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians being bombed into submission in the Gaza Strip.
It was part of the long-threatened "unity of the fronts" strategy developed by the alliance, whereby Israel would find itself surrounded and battling Hamas in Palestine, Ansar Allah (better known as the Houthis) in Yemen, paramilitaries in Syria and Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran.
Wednesday's ceasefire should, in theory, lead to "a permanent cessation of hostilities" between Israel and Hezbollah, and the "gradual" withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, according to US President Joe Biden.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of armed groups, said the decision by Hezbollah to halt the fighting was "purely Lebanese" and that there would be no let-up in its own activity.
"The break of one party from the Axis of Resistance will not affect the unity of the arenas, but rather new parties will join to strengthen the arena of the holy conflict to confront the enemies of God, His Messenger, and the believers," it said.
Yet Israel has succeeded in decoupling its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, despite Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut in September, vowing his party would not abandon the Palestinian enclave.
"The tacit agreement between Hezbollah and Iran to separate the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon could undermine the principle of the 'unity of the fronts' which has been a central tenet of the Axis of Resistance in recent years," Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, told Middle East Eye.
"This creates an ideological and narrative dilemma for the Axis."
The last four years have seen repeated blows to the Axis of Resistance, with long-standing, influential leaders being killed by the US and Israel.
Qassam Soleimani, head of Iran's elite Quds Force and a key coordinator of the Axis, was killed in a US air strike in Baghdad in January 2020, along with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a prominent Iraqi paramilitary leader.
In the past year, Israel has killed Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, as well as Nasrallah and his presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine.
Despite all these blows, experts believe that none of these factions are under any existential threat, suggesting that the leaderships are not as central to the organisations as Israel thought.
Renad Mansour, project director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, said the Axis had already been heavily reconfigured over the past year, with Iran's once central role now diminished.
"There are certain groups in Iraq where their bread and butter is the transnational fight," he told MEE.
Groups such as Kataeb Hezbollah, though nominally deeply loyal to Iran, have in recent years become increasingly autonomous, such as when the faction killed three US servicemen in Jordan in January.
Ultimately, Lebanon is a "compartmentalised ceasefire" and the other members of the Axis are unlikely and unwilling to rein in their activities.
"This is why we'll start to get messaging from these vanguards groups that just because Hezbollah in Lebanon has reached a ceasefire agreement that does not mean that [Iraqi groups] will cease fire - they have more autonomy, they have more decision making to try to push their narratives," said Mansour.
After the ceasefire came into effect on Wednesday morning, Hezbollah voters in the south, Bekaa Valley and Beirut's southern suburbs charged down the roads in cars celebrating what they said they saw as a victory.
Vehicles adorned with Hezbollah flags also featured pictures of Nasrallah and his cousin Safieddine.
Despite Netanyahu's claims to have fundamentally degraded Hezbollah's capacity to attack Israel, US official sources have said the group did not deploy its whole arsenal.
In a speech earlier this month, Brett Holmgren, the acting director of the National Counterterrorism Center, acknowledged Israel had damaged Hezbollah but said its "ground forces in the south remain somewhat intact" and its full capacity of 20,000 to 40,000 fighters had not been deployed.
'Hezbollah has demonstrated its resilience and capacity to transition into guerrilla warfare'
- Ali Alavi, Soas
Hezbollah rocket fire and drone attacks continued on northern Israel until the very end, and Israel's ground invasion met fierce resistance. At least 73 Israeli soldiers were killed in northern Israel, the occupied Golan Heights and south Lebanon over the conflict.
As such, the decision to go for a ceasefire was less indicative of Israel achieving its goals than it was an admission that the group remained ready for a long-term fight.
"Despite being weakened since the assassination of key leaders and ongoing aerial assaults, Hezbollah has demonstrated its resilience and capacity to transition into guerrilla warfare, a tactic in which it has experience," said Ali Alavi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian studies at Soas.
Yet, Alavi noted, Hezbollah in recent years has presented itself increasingly as a Lebanon-focused entity, rather than a representative of the transnational ideology of Iran's Islamic Revolution, so had been responsive to growing demands in Lebanon for a ceasefire.
Critics of Hezbollah have framed the ceasefire as an abandonment of the movement's Hamas allies in Gaza.
The Palestinian cause has long been central to the Axis, in terms of ideology, propaganda and its military strategy. Any clear break from that would pose an existential threat to the alliance.
However, the Axis of Resistance is seemingly already reconfiguring its approach to allow others to keep up the pressure on Israel.
Azizi said Iran appeared to be shifting its focus toward the Houthis in Yemen and the Iraqi armed groups, saying that despite internal restrictions "an escalation by Israel could activate the Iraqi front lines once again".
Simultaneously, the Houthis are expected to intensify their operations in the Red Sea, where they have targeted Israeli-linked shipping, "and possibly launch new attacks on Israel to sustain the perception of a unified resistance front".
"In the long term, if a similar ceasefire is reached in Gaza, Iran and its allies will likely engage in a process of rethinking, restructuring and redistributing their roles within the Axis of Resistance," Azizi said.
"However, this will be a challenging and prolonged effort, as the war has significantly diminished the capabilities of various members within the network."