Syrian rebels appeal to minorities in newly seized areas but jury remains out
As rebel forces continue their advances in northern Syria, concerns have been raised over the fate of ethnic and religious minorities living in the newly captured territories.
Leading the advance is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate previously known as the Nusra Front that has sought to promote a more moderate branding in recent years.
Its fighters seized Aleppo, Syria's diverse second city, last week and is now progressing south to Hama, another major urban centre.
It remains to be seen what will happen to the Christians, Kurds, Alawi and other minorities in areas that HTS and the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of Turkey-backed rebel groups, now control.
Yet since the fall of Aleppo there have been encouraging signs from HTS and rebel factions it dominates, with the hard-line faction quickly releasing statements telling Christians they would be protected.
A commander from Ahrar al-Sham, another ultra-conservative rebel group, made a speech specifically calling for unity and the protection of Christians and Armenians.
Videos and reports from the city also have shown Christians going about their days normally, preparing for Christmas celebrations and praying in churches.
However, genuine changes in attitude “remain to be seen long term”, according to British-Syrian writer and activist Leila al-Shami.
“People are going to be worried about an organisation that uses extremist Islamist language and frameworks and what that means to them long-term over governance,” she told Middle East Eye.
Syrian minorities have had a rocky relationship with rebels since the war broke out in 2011.
President Bashar al-Assad's government proudly promotes itself as secular and the protector of Syria's minorities, but people of all backgrounds have been victims of its violent oppression.
That means opposition to Assad is present across all sections of Syrian society, including his Alawi sect.
However, over the course of the conflict, many rebel Sunni groups became increasingly ultra-conservative, with hard-line factions like HTS crushing more moderate ones, alienating not only minorities but many Sunnis as well.
“The regime tries to present itself as a protector of minorities. In reality, a lot of this sectarianism was manufactured by the regime,” said al-Shami. “For example, when it was arresting peaceful pro-democracy protesters in 2011, it was releasing radical Islamists that went on to join the most hard-line brigades.”
Assad was also accused of purposely targeting Sunni communities during the height of the civil war, further stoking sectarian tensions.
Joseph Daher, a Swiss-Syrian professor at the University of Lausanne, said that the rise of Islamic fundamentalist groups, such as the Islamic State, in the first half of the 2010s, as well as the militarisation of the Syrian revolution “scared significant sections of the population, including minorities”.
The treatment many endured in rebel-controlled areas, as well as massacres committed against Alawis, Druze and other groups, only reduced their faith in Syria’s armed opposition.
Very few Christians remain in Idlib, which was one of the last pockets of opposition control until the latest offensive, and while HTS made several reconciliation attempts with them and other groups, the shadow of its past actions has been hard to shake.
In recent years, many rebel groups, most prominently HTS, seem to have switched from a jihadist discourse to a national one.
“They want to set the objectives into a national framework. Does that mean they are not authoritarian, fundamentalists? No, they are,” said Daher, recalling HTS’s poor record on political freedoms and human rights.
Robin Yassin Kassab, an expert on the Syrian conflict, told MEE rebel groups “really learned some lessons”.
“They obviously thought very hard about the fact that indiscipline, looting, sectarian violence by rebels did the revolution an enormous disservice in the past,” he said.
“A lot of work has been done behind the scenes to organise and discipline the fighting men, and to take on board the fact that Syria is a multicultural society.”
The bigger issue, experts agree, lies with rebels belonging to the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of Turkey-backed factions.
The SNA's fighters are “renowned for their indiscipline and criminality", Kassab said. "They are thugs.”
'We will not allow anyone to disrupt or attempt to undermine the brotherhood and cooperation between all parts of Syrian society'
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham statement
Members of the SNA have already been seen vandalising a duty-free shop selling alcohol in Aleppo’s international airport and allegedly harassing and beating members of Kurdish armed groups after taking over their territories.
Due to Turkey’s longstanding conflict with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and associated groups, and previous battles between Turkish-backed Syrian rebels and Kurdish forces, Daher says the “biggest fear” would be how these groups treat Kurdish civilians and fighters.
On Monday, HTS, which is already engaged in a tense and public war of words with the SNA, released a statement saying Kurds are “an integral part of the diverse Syrian identity that we all cherish” who will enjoy the “full right to live in dignity and freedom”.
“We will not allow anyone to disrupt or attempt to undermine the brotherhood and cooperation between all parts of Syrian society,” HTS said, adding that it calls on Kurds to remain in their neighbourhoods.
Though Christians, Armenians and Kurds have been offered assurances, Shia and Alawi Syrians may have a more difficult time in the short term.
Assad and his dynastic family are Alawi, a sect close to Shia Islam, and he is often accused of favouring the community, many of whom reside in Latakia and Tartous close to HTS-held Idlib.
'At the top [of HTS], there is a realisation that "if we go into Aleppo as jihadists subjecting the other sects, the world will turn on us on day one"'
- Robin Yassin Khassab, Syria expert
Assad has also been heavily supported by Shia armed groups from Lebanon, Iraq and Iran throughout the civil war.
Rebels recently captured al-Zahraa and Nubl, two Shia towns near Aleppo, where civilians remained after the Syrian army and allied groups withdrew.
“There will be lots of people who want revenge, so it will be interesting to see what happens with the civilian populations of those two towns,” said Kassab.
“If they treat them relatively well, then I imagine it will be a good signal to the Alawi community.”
However, experts agree that if the factions dominated by HTS, designated a "terrorist" group by the US and other western states, are serious about proving themselves as legitimate political actors in Syria, they may want to appear as "moderate" as possible.
“At the top, there is a realisation that ‘if we go into Aleppo as jihadists subjecting the other sects, the world will turn on us on day one',” said Kassab.
“Hopefully, the same kind of mature political thinking will influence the attitude towards Alawis.”