Turkey's Erdogan backs rebel offensive in Syria

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to back a rebel offensive in Syria that has captured several major cities within a week, as indicated by a statement he made on Friday.

“Idlib, Hama, Homs, and of course, the ultimate target is Damascus. The opposition's march continues,” he said. “Our hope is that this march in Syria proceeds without any accidents or troubles.”

Erdogan reminded that he had invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad multiple times this year for talks to “determine Syria’s future together”, but Assad did not respond positively to such a meeting.

Although Turkey did not directly intervene in the latest offensive by the rebels - which saw the rapid fall of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and Hama - it appears to have given the operation a green light.

Turkish security sources told Middle East Eye last week that Ankara had approved a limited operation in the Aleppo countryside.

However, the unexpected collapse of Syrian government forces has expanded the operation into uncharted territory.

Some elements of the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) joined the initial Aleppo offensive led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate. As Aleppo fell to the rebels, the SNA also opened another front from the north, seizing territories near Tal Rifaat and the strategically important Kuweires military airport.

Turkish sources told the media this week that Assad’s refusal to reconcile with the opposition, coupled with attacks on civilians in Idlib, had prompted the Aleppo offensive.

“Under the leadership of Ibrahim Kalin, the National Intelligence Organisation has been closely monitoring the field for the past three months and has made all necessary preparations through both diplomatic and intelligence efforts,” Hurriyet newspaper reported.

“Following HTS's mobilisation and based on the assumption that all actors on the Syrian front would take positions, the intelligence organisation has fully deployed to the field.”

Hurriyet also said that Turkish intelligence assets were “fully on the ground” as the operation targeting Tal Rifaat progressed. Russia was notified in advance.

“There were a small number of Russian soldiers patrolling Tal Rifaat, and Russia was warned via the Ankara-Moscow line. As a result, Russian soldiers left the area,” the report added.

Assad's missed opportunity

Erdogan and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have emphasized, in several phone calls with foreign leaders, the need to establish a genuine political dialogue between the legitimate Syrian opposition and the Syrian government.

Nebi Mis, chairman of the Ankara-based think tank SETA, noted that the majority of powers involved in Syria believe solving the crisis and conducting negotiations would be much more difficult if the government collapses.

“This is because, in such a scenario, the crisis and conflicts in Syria could deepen and prolong further,” he wrote in an article on Friday.

“Although Assad missed an opportunity by not responding to the call for normalisation in a timely manner, Turkey attaches importance to establishing a dialogue process in which the regime and the opposition can negotiate.

"Turkey has emphasised to all its interlocutors the need to pressure Assad to come to the table.”

Fidan is set to meet his Russian and Iranian counterparts on the sidelines of the Doha Forum this weekend to discuss the crisis within the framework of the so-called Astana format.

Mis believes the outcome of this meeting could determine how the situation on the ground evolves.