Fall of Assad: Algeria and Tunisia shift positions as Maghreb reacts to Syria upheaval

Last Update: 2024-12-10 21:00:04 - Source: Middle East Eye

Fall of Assad: Algeria and Tunisia shift positions as Maghreb reacts to Syria upheaval

Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia all had very different relations with Damascus, but all are watching developments warily
Elodie Farge
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An armed rebel waves to the crowd as people cheer during a gathering at the Karama square in the southern Syrian city of Sweida on 10 December (Shadi al-Dubaisi/AFP)

The rapid fall of Syria's former president Bashar al-Assad has taken Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia by surprise, with the Maghreb countries closely scrutinising developments as the country's future remains in flux. 

Assad had until a few days ago counted on the support of some North African countries against what they called "terrorist attacks" by the mosaic of rebel groups that have taken control of Syria's main cities.

This was the case in Algeria, where the government last Tuesday released a statement asserting its support for the Assad government in the face of "terrorist aggression".

The statement revealed that Algeria's foreign minister, Ahmed Attaf, had spoken to his Syrian counterpart Bassam Sabbagh on the phone, reassuring him of Algerian support.

On Tuesday, Sabbagh was expressing his "shock" at the sudden demise of the government he served, saying that Assad had asked his Russian and Iranian allies to save him.

On Sunday evening, Algeria adopted a more circumspect position, after the announcement of Assad's flight to Moscow. In a statement, the foreign ministry called "to preserve the country's assets and achievements and to look to the future to build a country for all", with "institutions emanating from the will of the Syrian people".

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Without commenting on the fall of Assad, Algiers invited "all Syrian parties to dialogue, far from any foreign interference," highlighting that the state "stands alongside the brotherly Syrian people, who are linked to the Algerian people by luminous pages of a common history based on solidarity and mutual support".

Syria and Algeria are connected by historical ties that have never been broken and that originate in adherence to the same ideological, military and strategic framework forged by pan-Arabism, and support for the Soviet Union and anti-imperialist struggles. The Baathist movement, of which Syria was one of the crucibles, was influential in Algiers after independence, particularly in the 1970s.

This link was strengthened during the Arab uprisings of 2011 and beyond, when both countries used the mantra of security and stability in the face of popular pressure for democratic change.

While the Arab League suspended Syria in 2011 in response to the massacres orchestrated by the Assad government, Algiers still supported Damascus, refusing to cut diplomatic ties, and in April 2023, advocated for the reinstatement of Syria within the bloc.

In May 2023, Assad personally thanked Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune for his role in this initiative.

Morocco blasts Algeria's Assad support

The press in Morocco, which is hostile to Algeria, was quick to deride its neighbour's support for the Assad government.

According to the Hespress website, the reason for this “fierce support” lies “in the visceral fear that democracy inspires in these regimes. The Algerian regime, like that of Bashar al-Assad, fears above all the popular momentum towards a civil and democratic state".

Other Moroccan media outlets highlighted the fear that the fall of Assad could arouse in Algiers. "Paralysed by the sudden fall of its Syrian ally, the Algiers regime fears suffering the same fate", wrote Le360.

The website noted that during demonstrations organised by the Syrian diaspora across Europe, the Algerian government was blamed by some for supporting Assad until the end.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (R) shakes hands with his Algerian counterpart Abdelaziz Bouteflika at the time at the opening session of the Arab Summit in Damascus in March 2008 (Awad Awad/AFP)

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") rgba(220, 220, 220, 0.5); top: -15px; left: 0px;">At a time when the fall of Assad is being celebrated by many, the kingdom of Morocco can boast of a long-standing enmity with Damascus.

Relations between Rabat and Damascus have been marked by tensions ever since Hafez al-Assad seized power in the early 1970s at a time of anti-monarchist sentiment in many Arab countries.

In November 2011, the Moroccan embassy was among diplomatic buildings attacked by pro-Assad protesters in Damascus, prompting the ambassador's recall and the closure of the premises.

In December 2012, Marrakesh hosted the fourth meeting of the Friends of Syria group supporting the Syrian opposition.

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Another element of divergence between the two countries has been the relationship with Israel: while Syria has been a central element of the “axis of resistance” against Israel, Rabat normalised its relations with Israel in December 2020, in exchange for recognition by Israel of its claim to sovereignty over the disputed region of Western Sahara.

In fact, it is mostly Western Sahara - the main issue occupying Moroccan diplomacy – that has fuelled tensions between Syria and Morocco.

Syria was the second Arab country after Algeria to recognise the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in April 1980. In 2023, Syria's representative to the United Nations called for "self-determination for the Sahrawi people", prompting Moroccan anger.

According to the Moroccan press, the kingdom had agreed to Syria returning to the Arab League on the condition that it end its support for the Polisario Front, the Sahrawi independence movement.

Morocco has continuously accused Syria of supporting Polisario, even claiming that Sahrawi fighters were taken prisoner alongside troops loyal to the Syrian government during recent fighting in Aleppo, according to media outlets close to the Moroccan monarchy.

On Monday, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita officially reacted to events in Syria by stressing that his country hoped the fall of Assad would "bring stability, meet the aspirations of the Syrian people and offer a better future to the country".

"Morocco has always worked for reforms and stabilisation, for the sovereignty and unity of Syria, and for what meets the aspirations of the people," Bourita said. "This is the constant position of the kingdom."

Warming of relations under Tunisia’s Saied

In Tunisia too, rebel advances in northern Syria last week were initially condemned as “terrorist attacks”.

In a statement issued last Wednesday by the foreign ministry, Tunis expressed “its full solidarity with the Syrian Arab Republic".

On Tuesday morning, "in view of the acceleration of events in the Syrian Arab Republic,” the ministry issued a statement stressing “the need to ensure the security of the Syrian people and to preserve the Syrian state as a unified and fully sovereign state in order to protect it from the danger of chaos, fragmentation and occupation and to reject any foreign interference in its affairs".

Tunisia expressed “its absolute solidarity with the brotherly Syrian people, who have deep fraternal ties with the Tunisian people".

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (L) meets with his Tunisian counterpart Kais Saied (R) on the sidelines of the Arab League Summit in Jeddah on 19 May 2023 (Syrian Presidency/AFP)

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") rgba(220, 220, 220, 0.5); top: -15px; left: 0px;">The proximity is however less important than with Algeria. Tunisia, the first country to experience the Arab Spring in 2011, approved the ostracisation of Syria by the Arab League while Moncef Marzouki, Tunisia's first democratically elected president after the revolution, clearly expressed his support for the Syrian opposition.

This was followed by a diplomatic rupture, with the closure of embassies and an influx of Syrian refugees into Tunisia in 2015.

Relations began to warm up in 2017, when then-Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi declared that he had "no fundamental objection to returning relations to their normal level once the situation has improved and stabilised in this brother country."

It is ultimately the current Tunisian president, Kais Saied who, in February 2023, decided to restore diplomatic relations with Syria, stressing that the crisis facing the Assad government was "an internal affair that only concerns the Syrian people".

The two heads of state shook hands warmly during their only meeting in May 2023 on the occasion of the summit of Arab heads of state in Jeddah.

"Syria and Tunisia are both facing the obscurantist current, because these two countries share a value, that of thought, conscience and belonging," Assad declared at the time.

In Tunisia, the largest opposition party, Ennahda, reacted to the announcement of the fall of Assad by reiterating "its commitment to the right of all peoples to freedom and dignity, and its position against all forms of injustice and tyranny".

Fear of militants’ return

Beyond these national differences, the Maghreb press have hinted at some common concerns shared by the security services and population of all three countries: the risk of attacks on national soil caused by the possible return from Syria of radicalised nationals.

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the opposition group that toppled the government of Bashar al-Assad on Sunday, was once linked to al-Qaeda and has been listed as a terrorist organisation by the United States, the European Union and the UK. 

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HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, have since sought to present themselves as a reformed and more moderate organisation.

But in countries like Tunisia, which has been targeted in the past decade by armed groups such as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI) and the Islamic State (IS), there remain concerns the new Syrian leadership will free Tunisian militants believed to have been detained under Assad.

Several Facebook publications have called on Tunisia to refuse access to any citizen returning from Syria and strengthen border control measures. Others have mentioned the imminent reactivation of sleeper cells.

According to various estimates, around 3,000 to 6,000 Tunisians joined militant groups in Syria during the war and constituted the largest number of foreign volunteers for IS in Iraq and Syria.

For several years now, the Moroccan, Algerian and Tunisian authorities have implemented measures aimed at monitoring their nationals who joined militant groups in Syria and have been returning home.

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