Shafaq News/ In light of heightenedsecurity concerns in the region and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regimein Syria by armed opposition forces, local and international warnings haveintensified the group’s ability to exploit current instability in Syria torebuild its capabilities, with experts stressing the necessity of maintainingGlobal Coalition forces in Iraq to eradicate the extremist organization.
However, Iraqi officials andobservers have reassured that the decision to expel coalition forces from Iraqremains the same, with their final withdrawal scheduled for September 2026.They maintain confidence in Iraq’s security apparatus, emphasizing thecountry’s ability to independently safeguard its territory and quell concernsabout an ISIS resurgence.
Intensified Security OperationsAgainst ISIS
Iraq has ramped up its campaignagainst ISIS in 2024, targeting hideouts, key leaders, and logistical networks.These efforts have resulted in the capture or killing of dozens of ISISoperatives across multiple regions.
Last week, the Iraqi JointOperations Command (JOC) conducted airstrikes on eight ISIS hideouts in theHamrin Mountains within the Kirkuk region. The strikes destroyed shelters,transit points, and weapons caches, disrupting the group’s capabilities. In Kirkuk,Iraqi forces neutralized a suicide bomber wearing an explosive belt.
Identified as the security chief ofISIS’s Daquq sector, the individual was a high-ranking leader with extensiveexperience in the organization.
Meanwhile, Kurdish Asayish forces inAl-Sulaymaniyah arrested a senior member of ISIS’s media wing in a precisionoperation. In the same week, F-16 jets of the Iraqi Air Force launchedairstrikes in the Wadi al-Shay area, south of Kirkuk, killing several ISISmembers and destroying a hideout near al-Fashka village, 45 kilometers fromKirkuk city.
Ali Naama al-Bandawi, a member ofIraq’s Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, expressed confidence inIraq’s ability to maintain security without foreign forces. “Prime MinisterMohammed Shia al-Sudani reaffirmed the government’s intention to conclude thepresence of Global Coalition forces in the country,” he said. Al-Sudanirecently told parliament that coalition forces are continuing their withdrawal,citing the evacuation of troops and equipment from Ain al-Assad Air Base, withsome assets having been relocated to Harir Air Base in Erbil.
Persistent Threat of ISIS Resurgence
Despite these successes, local andinternational officials have issued stark warnings about the enduring threatposed by ISIS. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Interior Minister RebarAhmed described the group as “more dangerous” now than in 2014.
Speaking at a forum on November 23,Ahmed stressed the need for continued coalition support to eradicate the group.
Iranian official Mohsen Rezaee addedto these concerns, alleging that approximately 11,000 ISIS fighters and theirfamilies are being trained “in a US-run camp in northern Syria.” He suggestedthese fighters could launch attacks in Iraq, targeting cities like Mosul orTikrit in the coming months.
Mazloum Abdi, commander of theKurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), warned of increasing ISIS activityin Syria’s deserts. Abdi highlighted potential attacks on critical facilitiessuch as al-Hol camp and Ghuwayran prison, urging “immediate action to containthe threat.”
Reports from the Syrian Observatoryfor Human Rights revealed that ISIS recently executed 54 Syrian soldiers whohad defected during the civil war.
US officials, including Secretary ofState Antony Blinken, have reiterated their commitment to countering ISIS.Blinken warned that the group could exploit regional instability to regroup.
In turn, Daniel Shapiro, DeputyAssistant Secretary of Defense for Middle Eastern Affairs, emphasized theimportance of maintaining US forces in eastern Syria to prevent ISIS fromregaining strength amid chaotic conditions.
General Michael Erik Kurilla,commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), also pledged continued support forIraq’s sovereignty and efforts to combat terrorism.
The US Perspective and IraqiSkepticism
US CENTCOM Commander Gen. MichaelKurilla and Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Iraq,reaffirming Washington’s commitment to the country’s stability. They emphasizedcontinued support to prevent ISIS’s resurgence and protect Iraq’s sovereignty,reflecting a broader strategy to maintain security partnerships while graduallyreducing troop presence.
Ali al-Maamari, a security analyst,has voiced skepticism about US claims that their forces remain in Iraq solelyto combat ISIS. “We still hear US officials assert that their troops remain inIraq to fight ISIS, which they claim continues to pose a threat. Yet, theyoverlook the fact that al-Hol camp in Syria, guarded by the Syrian DemocraticForces (SDF) under US command, houses 57,000 family members and fightersassociated with ISIS,” al-Maamari told Shafaq News.
He argued that the continued USmilitary presence seems indefinite, justified by the persistent ISIS threat.“Unless US officials declare that ISIS no longer poses a danger to Iraq,coalition forces will remain. Moreover, strategic agreements between Iraq andthe United States on military, political, and economic cooperation ensure asustained American footprint,” he said.
Al-Maamari also highlighted Iraq’sreliance on US oversight of its financial reserves held in the Federal Reserve.“Even if armed factions or paramilitary groups were dismantled, this would notcompel the Americans to forgo their strategic agreements with Iraq,” heconcluded.
Withdrawal and Shift to SecurityCooperation
Security expert Sarmad al-Bayatiaffirmed that Iraq remains committed to the phased withdrawal of coalitionforces. The timetable includes the closure of the Ain al-Asad base by September2025 and the Harir base in Erbil by September 2026.
“These timelines remain unchanged,” he confirmed.
Al-Bayati underscored that Iraq’sreliance on coalition assistance is limited to air surveillance andintelligence, areas where local capabilities are still developing. “Iraq has noground-based reliance on coalition forces but does require aerial intelligenceand airstrikes to monitor and target ISIS movements,” he explained.
On the other hand, National SecurityAdvisor Qasim al-Araji reiterated the importance of transitioning Iraq’srelationship with the coalition into a framework of bilateral securitycooperation.
In November 2024, al-Arajiacknowledged the coalition’s vital role in defeating ISIS militarily butstressed the need to recalibrate the partnership.
He outlined a two-year evaluationperiod to assess Iraq’s security needs and finalize plans for the fullwithdrawal of coalition forces.