Egypt: Sisi fears a popular uprising after the fall of Assad in Syria

"My hands are not stained with anyone's blood, nor have I stolen anyone's money," Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi told military leaders and journalists a week after Bashar al-Assad's fall in Syria.

Sisi, the former army general who came to power a decade ago after a coup, has so far refrained from making direct comments about Assad's departure. However, his remarks signalled a sense of insecurity about the fate of his rule.

With Assad gone, Sisi may now be keenly aware that he has become the most authoritarian ruler in the Arab region, with over 65,000 political prisoners languishing in his jails, thousands documented to be forcibly disappeared and torture becoming systematic state policy amounting to a crime against humanity.

In mid-December, Sisi held a briefing with military and police leaders, along with pro-government journalists, at the Strategic Command headquarters in the New Administrative Capital, his controversial $58bn new city east of Cairo.

The meeting was not broadcast in full, and state media selected a number of excerpts that centred on two talking points: Sisi is not Assad, and Egyptians should not follow in the footsteps of Syrian rebels.

Then, on 23 December, Egyptian state-aligned news outlets broadcast a video featuring a series of older speeches by Sisi addressed to the public. In his remarks, Sisi stated: "They have completed their mission in Syria; they have destroyed Syria, and the objective now is to dismantle the Egyptian state," without specifying whom he was referring to or who was responsible for Syria's destruction.

'Sisi’s remarks warn of the implications of a popular uprising'

- Hisham Kassem, Egyptian politician

Hisham Kassem, an Egyptian politician and former head of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights (EOHR), said Sisi's messages reflect fears of potential popular movements against the current regime. 

"Sisi's remarks warn of the implications of a popular uprising, revolution, or even the emergence of political activism aimed at instigating change," Kassem told Middle East Eye.

A hashtag, #The_Land_The_People_The_Army, has gained traction on social media in recent weeks and is supported by accounts affiliated with Sisi's government.

In what appears to be an organised online campaign, Sisi's comments have been widely disseminated, accompanied by ominous warnings of a conspiracy to destabilise Egypt and undermine its military, drawing parallels with the situation in Syria.

'Better than Syria and Iraq'

Since assuming power in June 2014, Sisi has focused on preventing civic unrest akin to the January 2011 revolution.

Amid an economic downturn and growing hardships for many Egyptians, Sisi has opted for a strategy reliant on fear - specifically, fear of Syria's fate - to deter dissent.

Through strict security measures, he has suppressed protests, criminalised demonstrations and opened over 23 new prisons. 

The regime's rhetoric continuously warns Egyptians against protesting, often invoking the devastating impact of the Syrian civil war, including widespread destruction and displacement. 

"Better than Syria and Iraq" has become one of Sisi's commonly used phrases.

The state-controlled media acts as a propaganda tool, often inciting hostility towards dissent.

The media, overseen by United Media Services - linked to the Egyptian General Intelligence Service - embarked on a campaign of fear, conveying the message that Egypt is distinct from Syria.

The same approach was used by Egyptian authorities during the early days of the Arab Spring. 

For example, on 15 January 2011, following the departure of Tunisian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, Egyptian media, supporting then-President Hosni Mubarak, repeated the refrain "Egypt is not Tunisia" in an attempt to deter protests that eventually resulted in Mubarak's downfall.

Likewise, the Sisi-aligned media has reacted to the fall of Assad with apparent unease.

Prominent media figure Amr Adeeb, recently granted Saudi citizenship, cautioned against Sisi facing a fate like Assad's, urging reliance solely on the army and police. Other personalities echoed this, denouncing Syria's transitional leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, as a terrorist threat to both nations.

"Egyptian media has reached a stage where it simply carries out orders without any contribution to content creation," said Kassem.

"Unlike the situation during Mubarak's era or the early days of Sisi's rule, when regime-aligned media played a role in shaping policies, it now merely executes instructions without attempting to correct or refine them, even when doing so would clearly benefit the regime," he told MEE.

Crackdown on Syrians

The anxiety surrounding developments in Syria has also manifested in heightened security measures taken by Egyptian authorities towards Syrians, mostly refugees, residing in Egypt. 

In Cairo, when members of the Syrian community took to the streets to celebrate the fall of Assad, they were detained under the pretext of protesting without a permit. 

The underlying motive appeared to extend beyond mere legalities.

A recent report by the French media outlet African Intelligence revealed that leaders within the Egyptian General Intelligence Service and National Security Agency held meetings with representatives of the Syrian community, effectively warning them against participating in demonstrations called by Sharaa.

According to African Intelligence, the security services' message was: "Stay in your homes and report any potential gatherings; otherwise, you risk arrest or deportation."

Meanwhile, the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR), a leading rights group, reported earlier this week that Egyptian authorities have issued deportation orders for approximately three Syrians detained at the First of October Police Station. 

Furthermore, it has been revealed that additional detainees are held in various police facilities, including the Second of October Police Station. This brings the total number of detainees to around 30 Syrians who are currently awaiting a decision from the passports and immigration authority and a directive from the National Security Agency.

A lesson for Sisi

Over the past decade, Sisi has emphasised that the Egyptian military is essential for the nation's stability, urging the public to appreciate its role since 2011. 

Sisi often portrays himself as Egypt's protector, cautioning against chaos similar to Syria's. "We can endure hunger and thirst, but we remain resilient," he said in one speech.

The fall of Assad was highly symbolic and could be used to draw analogies with Sisi's rule. After armed factions took Aleppo, Assad increased military salaries by 50 percent, but the Syrian army still failed to defend him as opposition forces moved towards the capital.

'What happened in Syria shows that stability cannot be achieved through brutality and oppression'

- Hisham Kassem, Egyptian politician

In Egypt, Sisi has granted the military significant economic power, controlling over 60 percent of the economy. This raises concerns about the army's loyalty during potential unrest. Sisi's reliance on regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is similar to Assad's dependence on Iran and Russia. However, like Assad, Sisi may find that his allies do not intervene when needed.

Sisi's anxiety likely stems from the economic hardships and social pressures faced by both Syria and Egypt. In Syria, Assad's policies have left nearly 90 percent of the population below the poverty line. Similarly, a recent comment by the minister of social solidarity, Maya Morsy, revealed that about 12 million Egyptian families live in poverty, impacting an estimated 48 to 60 million citizens facing severe economic challenges.

The stark difference between the luxury of Assad's seized palaces and the economic struggles of many Egyptians highlights this issue.

But the stark contrast between the poverty of most Egyptians and Sisi's lavish new capital and presidential palace is raising questions about whether Sisi may eventually face Assad's fate.

Sisi's choice to host the G8 summit in his new presidential palace has drawn criticism as a strategic misstep. The palace, costing about 150 billion Egyptian pounds ($3bn), comes under scrutiny as Sisi calls on citizens to endure economic hardships. Given that the poverty line in Egypt is 90 pounds per day, this expenditure could potentially lift around 55 million Egyptians out of poverty.

"What happened in Syria shows that stability cannot be achieved through brutality and oppression," Kassem told MEE.