UAE brokers massive Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap ahead of New Year's Eve

Russia and Ukraine swapped more than 300 prisoners of war on Monday, in an exchange brokered by the UAE ahead of New Year's Eve, officials from all three countries said.

The two sides have exchanged hundreds of captive soldiers since Russia began its military assault on Ukraine in February 2022, in one of the few areas of cooperation.

"On 30 December, as a result of the negotiation process, 150 Russian servicemen were returned from territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. In return, 150 Ukrainian army prisoners of war were handed over," the Russian defence ministry said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv received 189 people as part of the deal, including soldiers, border guards and two civilians from the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol. 

Ukraine said on Monday that Moscow had released a total of 3,956 people - soldiers and civilians - in deals with Kyiv since the start of the conflict. 

"We are working to free everyone from Russian captivity. This is our goal. We do not forget anyone," Zelensky said.

The deal underscores how Gulf states have continued to position themselves as mediators in the Ukraine war.

"The Ministry emphasized that the success of this new mediation, the tenth since the beginning of 2024, reflects the trust of Russia and Ukraine in the UAE," the Emirati foreign ministry said in a statement on Monday.

According to the UAE's foreign ministry, the Gulf state's latest mediation brings the total number of captives it has helped release to 2,484.

The UAE benefited from its neutral status in the early days of the conflict, with Ukrainians and Russians flocking to Dubai and propelling its real estate market.

However, in 2024, Russian interest in the Emirates reduced due to rising prices and Emirati banks becoming stricter in enforcing US sanctions, according to Bloomberg.

Ukraine builds bridges in Syria

The UAE has also become a hub for re-exporting luxury goods and dual-use military technologies from the West to Russia. The US applied heavy pressure on the UAE to reduce its involvement in Russian business. In 2023, the US sanctioned Volito, a Dubai-based trader of Russian oil.

President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine when he returns to the White House in January. Gulf states, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, could look to position themselves as mediators. 

However, an end to the war could unravel several lucrative trades from which those states have profited, including trading sanctioned Russian oil and re-exporting Russian petroleum products.

The UAE has worked with Russia in several hotspots across the region, backing the same side in warring Libya.

The UAE was also working on a deal, as reported by Middle East Eye, to obtain sanctions relief for Russia's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria before he was toppled by rebels in December.

According to the Washington Post, Ukraine provided drone operators to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in its successful offensive against Assad.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met Syria's new de facto ruler, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Damascus on Monday, where he raised the Ukrainian flag at his country's consulate.