Shafaq News/ Alongside its"routine" challenges, Iraq faces remarkable and unprecedentedconcerns as it enters 2025. The country is struggling with escalating politicaltensions, deepening security threats, and looming economic uncertainties, eachpresenting a formidable challenge to its stability and resilience.
Political Challenges
Political analyst Aqil Abbas warnedof "major and alarming challenges" in 2025, particularly theanticipated shift in US policy under a new administration. "The incomingTrump administration views Iraq with skepticism, treating it less as an allyand more as a potential adversary—possibly even as part of Iran’s sphere ofinfluence," Abbas told Shafaq News.
He described this as anunprecedented test for Iraq’s political class, who are unprepared for possibleeconomic and punitive measures that could severely harm the country.
Abbas emphasized the urgency of"political reform, reducing Iranian influence, and consolidating stateauthority over arms" to present Iraq as an independent entity, rather thana component of broader regional projects.
Political analyst Saif al-Saadiadded that Iraq faces a critical juncture with Trump’s inauguration on January20, 2025. The new administration’s plans for the Middle East, including thenotion of a "New Middle East," could heavily impact Iraq.
Baghdad’s strained history withTrump, especially following the US assassination of Iranian General QassemSoleimani near Baghdad airport, exacerbates concerns. The incident led toheightened tensions and an Iraqi arrest warrant for Trump.
While some analysts hope forimproved ties, signs indicate that Iraq may remain a secondary priority forTrump, focused primarily on countering Iranian influence.
Lebanese analyst George Alam viewsIraq as part of a broader roadmap for the region under the "New MiddleEast" framework. He urged Iraqi political factions to “unify and curbexternal interference” to navigate the country through these challenges.
Another political challenge isholding parliamentary elections in 2025, a constitutional mandate outlined inArticle 62.
However, calls for early electionshave gained momentum, particularly from the Sadrist Movement, led by Muqtadaal-Sadr. Observers are debating whether these demands aim to pressure MohammedShia Al-Sudani’s government or to reset the political landscape.
Al-Saadi suggested that “the desiredchanges should come through the ballot box, not revolutionary upheaval.”
Many voices in Iraq are pushing forelectoral reforms, arguing that the current system fails to reflect true publicrepresentation and marginalizes smaller parties and independents.
Contentious legislative issues,including the Amnesty Law, Personal Status Law, and Property Restitution Law,also remain unresolved due to deep divisions among Shiite, Kurdish, and Sunnifactions.
Efforts to pass these laws as apackage have only intensified disputes.
Security Challenges
Iraq faces two primary securitythreats in 2025: the resurgence of ISIS and potential conflict arising fromtensions between Israel and armed resistance factions in the region.
While Iraq has made strides inreducing ISIS's territorial control in recent years, the group remains a potentthreat. Despite being largely defeated in 2017, the terrorists continue tooperate through sleeper cells, particularly in the northern and western regionsof Iraq.
These cells, often operating in theborder regions with Syria, exploit security gaps in rural areas and mountoccasional attacks on military and civilian targets.
In the first half of 2024 alone,ISIS claimed responsibility for over 100 attacks, targeting Iraqi securityforces, infrastructure, and even civilians.
Experts predict that ISIS willcontinue to exploit the political and security vacuum in Syria, seeking tocross into Iraq to destabilize the country.
The group’s shift from conventionalwarfare to guerrilla tactics makes it difficult for the Iraqi government tofully eradicate its presence.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s security apparatusfaces the growing challenge of armed resistance groups operating within itsborders, some of which have ties to Iran. These groups, which played a pivotalrole in the fight against ISIS, have become increasingly powerful andindependent from the Iraqi state.
While many of these groups alignwith the Iraqi government's broader goals, their lack of formal integrationinto state-controlled military structures poses significant risks. These groupsare heavily armed and have amassed military capabilities. Their independentactions, such as rocket attacks on US interests and involvement in regionalconflicts, have drawn international concern.
As tensions with the US remain high,particularly following the assassination of Iranian General Soleimani, analystsexpect increased pressure on Iraq to rein in these factions.
The Biden administration has alreadysignaled that it will push for Iraq to disarm these groups or risk facingadditional sanctions.
Ghalib al-Daami, a politicalanalyst, predicts that US pressure in 2025 will intensify, especially ifresistance groups continue to act autonomously or target US assets in Iraq.
A failure to rein in these groupscould provoke US military strikes, further destabilizing Iraq’s already fragilesecurity situation.
Additionally, the risk of a broaderregional conflict looms large. The rising tensions between Israel and variousarmed groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian factions in Gaza,could spill over into Iraq, especially given the presence of Iranian-backedforces in the country.
Should these groups escalate theiroperations, Iraq could find itself caught in a wider conflict. The US is likelyto push Iraq to prevent its territory from being used as a launch pad forattacks on Israeli targets, which could strain Iraq’s diplomatic position andits ability to maintain internal security.
The potential for widespreadinstability also remains high due to internal divisions within Iraq’s securityforces. While the Iraqi military has been successful in countering ISIS, itremains divided along sectarian lines, which hampers effective coordination.
The integration of variousparamilitary groups, many of which are linked to political factions, furthercomplicates Iraq's ability to maintain a unified security strategy.
In the face of these complexsecurity dynamics, Iraq will need to bolster its national securityinfrastructure, reform its military apparatus, and work toward eliminatingsectarian divides within its security forces to avoid further instability in2025.
Economic Challenges
On the economic front, Iraq’s heavyreliance on oil revenues—over 90% of state income—leaves it vulnerable.
Former US President Donald Trump’splans to end conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war, could lead toRussia’s full return to global oil markets, triggering a supply glut and asharp drop in oil prices.
"This would severely impactIraq’s revenues, creating a remarkable budget deficit," al-Daami warned.He urged the government to diversify its income sources and invest in non-oilsectors.
Additionally, recent fluctuations inthe exchange rate further compound the country’s economic instability.
In 2024, the Iraqi dinar weakenedsignificantly against the US dollar, dropping by nearly 10% in some months.This depreciation has led to increased import costs, driving up prices foreveryday goods and causing higher inflation, which directly impacts thepurchasing power of ordinary Iraqis.
The parallel currency market remainshighly volatile, with the black market exchange rate sometimes diverging by asmuch as 15% from the official rate.
Moreover, Iraq's energy sectorremains a critical issue. Despite efforts to reduce dependency on Iranian gas,the country’s electricity supply continues to be insufficient, with poweroutages often exceeding 12 hours per day in some provinces.
In 2024, Iraq’s electricitygeneration capacity was estimated to be around 18,000 megawatts, while demandduring peak summer months can soar to over 25,000 megawatts.
The shortfall is exacerbated byoutdated infrastructure, inefficient distribution, and an ongoing reliance onIranian gas, which makes up 40% of Iraq’s energy imports. As a result, effortsto improve energy independence through agreements with regional countries, suchas Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan, are seen as crucial in the comingyear.
A Year of Continuity and Uncertainty
The trajectory of events in 2024suggests that 2025 will continue along a similar path. The upcoming elections,security risks tied to developments in Syria, and Iraq’s role in regionaldynamics will dominate the year. Amid this complex landscape, Iraq must striveto avoid a repeat of past crises while positioning itself as a stabilizingforce in an increasingly volatile region.