Shafaq News/ Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani isset to visit Baghdad on Sunday to attend a meeting for the StateAdministration.
Barzani’s visit, armed with pressing demands on salaries,oil exports, and electoral reforms, is considered by analysts to be Baghdad's'last chance' to resolve lingering disputes with Erbil.
Failure to reach a lasting agreement could push the Kurdishleadership to withdraw, destabilizing the nation further.
KDP Warns of Unmet Demands
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has hinted at thepossibility of withdrawing from Iraq’s political process if the demands of theKurdistan Region are not met.
KDP member Wafaa Mohammed told Shafaq News that a meeting onJanuary 11 between Kurdish blocs and representatives of the region in Baghdaddiscussed the option of Kurdish withdrawal if Baghdad fails to honor agreementswith the region. These include budget allocations, the implementation ofArticle 140, the enactment of an oil and gas law, halting Arabizationcampaigns, and the provision of military and health aid.
“If the Kurdish position is unified, withdrawal is a betteroption than accepting the humiliation imposed by the federal government,”Mohammed told Shafaq News. “Such a move would gain full support from theinternational community. However, I believe that experienced leaders and seniorpoliticians from the Shiite and Sunni components will work to resolve with theKurdish side, as Kurdish withdrawal would destabilize Iraq, something no onedesires.”
Ultimately, Mohammed noted, withdrawal remains the bestoption for the Kurds if Baghdad fails to address their demands.
Unresolved Issues: Salaries
Life in the Kurdistan Region has been significantlydisrupted due to a growing general strike across government offices, schools,universities, and traffic departments. The strikes are fueled by months ofunpaid salaries, a recurring issue that remains unresolved.
For years, the salary dispute between Erbil and Baghdad hasbeen a point of contention, reigniting each year during the federal budgetapproval process. The federal government imposes conditions on the Region, suchas handing over oil revenues in exchange for its share of the budget. However,since the suspension of the Kurdistan Region’s oil exports through Turkiye’sCeyhan port two years ago, Baghdad has categorized salary payments as"advances" rather than regular allocations.
In February 2024, the Federal Supreme Court mandated thatthe federal government pay Kurdistan Region employees directly, bypassing theKurdish government. This decision followed months of salary delays.
In an extraordinary meeting in Erbil, Kurdistan RegionalGovernment (KRG) Prime Minister Masrour Barzani criticized Baghdad's approach,stating, "Baghdad’s dealings with Kurdistan are not in line with itsstatus as a federal entity. We have concluded that this behavior is unjust,unfair, and unacceptable. The relationship between the Kurdistan Region andBaghdad must be rectified."
On January 8, the KRG Council of Ministers reiterated itscommitment to fulfilling its obligations and pursuing solutions with thefederal government to secure salaries and financial entitlements for theregion. "Despite efforts, the federal Ministry of Finance has delayedDecember 2024 salaries for Kurdistan Region employees, even though employees inother Iraqi provinces have been paid," the council noted.
KRG spokesperson Peshawa Hawramani said at a pressconference that Baghdad had only sent less than 7% of the Region's financialentitlements so far, adding that "We have provided all financial andemployee data, and our rights are enshrined in the amended budgetlaw."
Political analyst and advisor to Kurdish leader MasoudBarzani, Kifah Mahmoud, described the situation as a deliberate effort toweaken the Kurdistan Region. "The Region’s full share of the budget hasnot been delivered, which is an injustice to its people. There is politicalpressure to undermine the Region’s powers, violating the constitution,"Mahmoud told Shafaq News.
He emphasized that President Nechirvan Barzani will bringthe unresolved salary, budget, and oil export issues to the StateAdministration meeting in Baghdad. "These challenges require genuineintentions, not just positive rhetoric, especially as Iraq navigates asensitive phase with serious concerns about its future," Mahmoudsaid.
Thair Abdul-Kadhim Mukhaif, a member of the ParliamentaryCommittee on Regions and Governorates, also acknowledged the financialchallenges facing the Kurdistan Region. "The Region consistently raisesthese issues with the federal government during every meeting, seekingsolutions to the persistent salary delays," Mukhaif told Shafaq News.
Barzani’s Visit: Between Optimism and Caution
Political analyst Atheer Al-Shara viewed president Barzani'svisit as a pivotal moment. "Erbil accuses Baghdad of failing to meet itscommitments regarding salaries, warning that withholding funds could haveserious consequences," Al-Shara told Shafaq News. "If no lastingsolutions are reached, this visit might mark the Kurds’ final effort beforedeciding to withdraw from the political process."
Al-Shara stressed the importance of resolving disputes toserve the interests of both the Kurdish and Iraqi people.
In addition, political researcher Dr. Saif Al-Saadiexpressed skepticism about reaching resolutions. "The Kurdistan Regionclaims it has adhered to the provisions of the federal budget, particularlyArticles 13 and 14, by exporting oil through SOMO, meanwhile, Baghdad arguesthat the Region has failed to remit past revenues owed to the federalbudget."
Al-Saadi believed these disputes are unlikely to be resolvedsoon. "The honeymoon period between the Sudani government and the KRG isover," he noted.
"With upcoming elections, tensions over the electorallaw will escalate, not just between Baghdad and Erbil, but across the broaderpolitical spectrum."
He added that political parties are pushing for electorallaws tailored to their own interests, with little regard for public opinion.“This is also true in the Kurdistan Region, where political players aregrappling with the implications of the Federal Supreme Court's decision toreduce the number of seats in the Kurdistan Parliament.”
"This could weaken the electoral influence of theKurdistan Democratic Party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and emerginglists, which could influence the KRG’s political landscape," Al-Saadiexplained.
Meanwhile, State of Law Coalition MP Baqir Al-Saadi, led byNouri Al-Maliki, expressed optimism about the meeting. He told Shafaq News,"The talks between President Barzani and the Shiite Coordination Frameworkin Baghdad could resolve the Kurdistan Region’s salary crisis and addressissues related to the upcoming elections."