Shafaq News/ The United States'decision not to renew waivers includes only electricity imports from Iran, notall gas imports, FGE revealed.
Iraq relies on Iran for 22% of itstotal gas and electricity imports according to FGE, raising concerns overwhether Iraq can sustain its power grid without alternative supplies.
FGE’s Middle East managing director,Iman Nasseri, noted, "While gas imports are technically exempt, USauthorities could sanction Iraq’s payment mechanisms if they violatesanctions." Experts warn that the decision could disrupt supply chains asIraq’s dependence on Iranian gas "remains critical."
The country’s electricity grid couldlose over 30% of its capacity if gas imports are affected, Iraqi ElectricityMinistry spokesperson Ahmed Moussa told the Associated Press. "Energyshortages could trigger fresh protests, particularly in Basra, where previousblackouts have fueled unrest."
According to an FGE analysis, theshortage could be partially mitigated by transitioning from gas to liquidfuels. Iraq has asked the Oil Ministry to increase fuel oil supplies to 100,000barrels per day, up from 35,000 barrels per day, according to Platts.
The government is also expandinggrid connections with Saudi Arabia and accelerating investment in associatedgas to reduce reliance on Iranian imports.
The decision not to renew thewaivers is part of US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaignagainst Iran. US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said the pressure on Iranwould increase if Iran "continued to develop a nuclear weapons capabilityand support terrorism across the region, including in Iraq."
Waltz also urged Iraq to expandpartnerships with US energy firms and work with the Kurdistan RegionalGovernment (KRG) to reopen the Iraq-Turkiye pipeline, which has remained closedfor two years due to disputes between Baghdad and Erbil.
Despite US diplomatic pressure, tworounds of talks between Baghdad and Erbil have failed to resolve disputes overpayment mechanisms and oil contracts. A source from one of the oil companiesinvolved in the talks, speaking anonymously, told Shafaq News that "whiletensions persist, there remains a possibility of compromise."