Shafaq News/ As the United States ramps up its militarythreats against Iran over its nuclear program and continues its "maximumpressure" strategy with economic sanctions, experts warn that Iraq couldbe one of the main victims of the escalating crisis.
The danger for Iraq is that it could become involved inmilitary operations, leading to serious security consequences. Pro-Iran armedforces mainly those under the umbrella of the Axis of Resistance, could targetUS interests within Iraq, and the Iraqi government may struggle to controlthese actions if military strikes are launched.
This would not be the first such move. From October 2023 tonearly February 2024, these forces carried out operations against US bases inIraq and Syria in solidarity with Gaza. However, the attacks were later haltedwithout explanation.
Observers suggest that Iraq faced US pressure and was warnedof severe consequences if the operations continued. Beyond security risks,Iraq’s economy is also under strain, particularly due to its heavy reliance onIranian gas and electricity imports. With the US halting Iraq’s sanctions exemption,the country now faces the prospect of an energy crisis.
Last month, Washington declined to renew a waiver that hadallowed Baghdad to purchase electricity from Iran without violating USsanctions. Despite Iraq’s vast oil and gas reserves, years of war, corruption,and mismanagement have left it struggling with chronic power shortages, makingit heavily dependent on Iranian energy imports.
While a US embassy statement claimed that electricityimports from Iran account for only 4% of Iraq’s total consumption, IraqiElectricity Ministry spokesperson Ahmad Moussa warned that if gas imports arealso cut off, Iraq could lose more than 30% of its electricity supply.
The government, he added, is now exploring alternativesolutions. Iraq's oil-dependent economy is further at risk if any instabilityin the Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz disrupts oil exports, particularly toChina.
Such disruptions could cause a significant decline innational income. Experts agree that the region is on the edge of a potential"security and military collapse," which would hit Iraq hard,especially as the country remains a battleground for the competing US andIranian influences. This puts Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’sgovernment in a precarious position, faced with “difficult choices.”
Signs of Escalation
Strategic expert Ahmad Al-Sharifi notes that the USpositioning at the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean is a strong indicatorthat the chances of war are increasing.
He believes that “US escalation against Iran is shiftingfrom targeting militias to striking deeper Iranian assets,” with Iraqpotentially becoming the next focus after operations in Yemen. He explains toShafaq News that once the US neutralizes Houthis’s ability to disrupt shippingin the Red Sea, the next phase could involve targeting Iraqi militias alignedwith Iran.
In recent weeks, theUS has intensified its attacks on the Houthi movement in Yemen, linking theiractions to Iranian support, although Iran denies this connection. Meanwhile,the Houthis have escalated attacks on US naval vessels, including repeatedstrikes on the USS Harry S. Truman.
The possibility of Iraq being drawn into the US-Iranconflict is growing, especially given the alignment of Iraqi factions withIran. Al-Sharifi believes this scenario would economically harm Iraq, disruptenergy supplies, and destabilize its economic activity, warning that “if warbreaks out, Iraq will struggle to meet its payroll obligations due todisruptions in oil exports through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.”
Tough Choices for Iraq Al-Sharifi concludes that Iraq’sgovernment is at a crossroads, having to decide whether to align with the US orIran or to maintain a neutral position.
Since President Donald Trump’s second term began, the US hasincreasingly imposed demands on Iraq, including placing several PopularMobilization Forces (PMF) leaders on terrorist lists and ending Iraq’sexemption to buy Iranian gas for electricity generation.
Iraq - Iran Relations
This move is expected to cause significant electricityshortages in the coming summer. Political analyst Aaed al-Hilali expressesconcern that escalating tensions between the US and Iran could strain Iraq'srelationship with Iran.
He points out thatIraq currently finds itself caught between the two powers, trying to mediatedialogue between them. However, US President Trump’s “more aggressive” approachtoward Iran is causing alarm in Baghdad, as the consequences of the crisis arelikely to spill over into Iraq.
Al-Hilali predicts that the US will not remain passive and willrespond to any attacks on its interests, highlighting that Iran is unlikely tostay quiet, with threats to retaliate against US bases in the Indian Ocean.This could have disastrous consequences for the region, affecting more thanjust Iran.
Iranian ParliamentSpeaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf has threatened to target US military bases inneighboring countries if any military action is launched against Iran fromthose locations. Meanwhile, Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Iran’s SupremeLeader, warned that Tehran could pursue the development of a nuclear bomb"under the pressure of the people" if the United States were tolaunch a military strike against the country.
He also warns that Iraq’s economic ties to Iran, especiallyfor gas and electricity, would be jeopardized if Iran suffered majordestruction.
Iraq "first to suffer"
In this regard, Nizar Haider, a political figure based inWashington, believes Iraq will be the first to suffer if the US-Iran crisisescalates into full-scale conflict. He argues that Iraq has failed to achievepolitical or economic independence, particularly in areas like the dollar, gas,and electricity imports.
Haider adds that Iraq could face a severe security crisis ifany militia faction acts recklessly, even something as minor as firing a bulletinto the air, given the heightened tensions, stressing that Iraq must becautious to avoid being drawn into the conflict under the pretext ofself-defense or slogans like “support” or “unity of fronts.”
Haider also notes that Iraq remains under significant USinfluence and lacks the military capacity to protect itself if it were drawninto a conflict with the US He points to recent months, where Iraq narrowlyavoided damage from Israeli aggression thanks to US intervention.
Meanwhile, OnTuesday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the deployment of additionalmilitary assets to the Middle East amid heightened tensions with Iran, thechief Pentagon spokesman said.
The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group will be joined bythe Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group to "continue promoting regionalstability, deter aggression, and protect the free flow of commerce in theregion," Sean Parnell said in a statement.
Additionally, Parnell said the Nimitz Strike Group has begunits deployment to the Western Pacific to preserve the US's warfightingadvantage in the Indo-Pacific.
Military expert Alaaal-Nashou shares Haider’s view, emphasizing that Iraq lacks the militarystrength to face the US, “the world’s most powerful military force.” Heconcludes that any attempt to side with Iran against the US would likely leadto “Iraq’s defeat.”