US to warn Lebanon to get tougher on Hezbollah to unlock Gulf cash, sources say

A senior US official is expected to tell Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Friday that he needs to get stricter on Hezbollah to unlock desperately needed financial assistance from Saudi Arabia, current and former US and Arab officials told Middle East Eye.

US deputy Middle East envoy Morgan Ortagus is expected to arrive in Beirut on Friday for meetings with Aoun and other Lebanese officials. There, she will raise concerns that the Lebanese army is "backsliding" against disarming Hezbollah, one current US official and two former US and Arab officials told MEE. 

But at the top of the Lebanese officials' agenda will be asking the US why reconstruction funding from Saudi Arabia that was promised earlier this year has not materialised.

MEE revealed in January that the US dangled the promise of Saudi cash to Lebanese lawmakers to ensure Aoun, Lebanon’s former commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, was elected president. 

Since then, Saudi Arabia has brushed off Lebanon’s appeals for cash.

Aoun came home empty-handed from a March visit to Saudi Arabia, where the kingdom even refused to lift a ban on Lebanese imports and Saudi nationals travelling to the impoverished Mediterranean state that was once the playground of wealthy Gulf Arabs.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam was greeted with pomp and circumstance when he travelled to Saudi Arabia to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, but he also came back empty-handed. 

“Saudi is taking a really restrictive approach,” Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told MEE.

“Forget about free money. Even where Saudi can give without much cost, they aren’t offering anything.”

'Disarming Hezbollah head on'

Saudi Arabia has been tightening the purse strings on its poorer neighbours for years as it tries to square investments at home with lower oil prices. But in Lebanon, the situation is more unstable. 

One US official told MEE that unless the Lebanese army can secure funding for salaries, it will collapse by next year.

The Trump administration approved $95m in funding for the army in March, but that does not go to salaries. The current and former US officials say the Trump administration may be reluctant to provide more funding next year. 

'The Saudis will ask the US for more on Gaza in return for funding Lebanon’s army'

- Randa Slim, Wilson Center

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is even more sceptical of Lebanon.

When his father, King Salman, came to power, Riyadh cancelled a $3bn aid package to Lebanon’s army. Later, the crown prince fell out with former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, briefly detaining him in Riyadh in 2017.

“Saudi Arabia wants to see this government take on the issue of disarming Hezbollah head on,” Randa Slim, a Middle East expert at the Wilson Center, told MEE. “Until then, Gaza and Syria are more important."

'Grateful to Israel'

Ortagus is the deputy to Trump's confidante and troubleshooter Steve Witkoff. Her February visit to Lebanon underscored how the balance of power in Lebanon has shifted away from Iran, Hezbollah’s main backer, towards Israel and the US.

“Hezbollah was defeated by Israel, and we are grateful to our ally Israel for defeating Hezbollah,” Ortagus said in February after meeting Aoun. That kind of praise from a senior US official in Beirut would have been unthinkable just a year ago.

Ahead of Ortagus’s visit, Republican James Risch, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen warned that the Lebanese army wasn’t doing enough against Hezbollah.

“LAF movement to meet the ceasefire requirements has been too slow,” the Senators wrote, putting pressure on Aoun and Salam ahead of Ortagus's visit. 

'This is the Israeli approach. Squeeze this government as much as you can and push it into a confrontation with Hezbollah'

- Mohanad Hage Ali, Carnegie Center in Beirut

The US’s hardline on Lebanon is in part a reflection of how emboldened the US and Israel feel, analysts say.

In December, the former Biden administration sealed a lopsided ceasefire in Lebanon that empowered Israel to unilaterally enforce the terms of disarming Hezbollah.

Israel has flaunted its dominance over Lebanon by occupying five strategic points in the south. In late March, it conducted its first air strike in Beirut since the ceasefire was signed, bombing the southern suburb of Dahiyeh.

Hezbollah has largely sat on the sidelines, taking the punches. 

David Schenker, the top Middle East official at the State Department during Trump's first term, said from the US perspective, the ceasefire has been a success, and is "pleasantly surprised by the Lebanese Army's work against Hezbollah, I would say".

As part of the ceasefire, the Lebanese Armed Forces have been deployed to southern Lebanon and are ensuring Hezbollah vacates territory between the un-demarcated border with Israel and the Litani River.

Saudi Arabia seeks grand bargain with Trump

The World Bank estimates that Lebanon’s reconstruction will cost $11bn, but analysts say funding for the Lebanese army’s salaries - coming in at tens of millions of dollars - is a small sum for Saudi Arabia.

Analysts say there are likely a few reasons why Gulf funding has not materialised.