In June 2020, the United States will engage in a strategic dialogue with the Iraqi leadership to determine the future of U.S. involvement in Iraq, and presumably efforts by the Iraqi government to push back the Iranian regime and its influence. The United States must demand that Prime Minister Kadhimi stop the killing and arrests of protesters, dissolve the militias and hold free and fair elections.
A few days ago I read an article by Michael Knights, a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, about the “promising” initial steps taken by new Iraqi prime minister, Mustapha al-Kadhimi, the long awaited reformist who will establish democracy, build civil society and strengthen the values of justice and human dignity. Mr. Knights presents a number of reforms Kadhimi made to the security and military systems in Iraq, including his naming of new commanders. However, this is not the intent of these appointments.
Prime Minister Kadhimi understands the complex relationship between the Iraqi people, political parties, tribes and geography. Balancing such divergent interests, PM Kadhimi is leveraging political gains to stabilize his power as prime minister; a post that has been terribly unstable.
Knights’ claims of an ISIS resurgence reminds one of claims by former PM Nouri al Maliki of an Al-Qaida resurgence, which was used to crack down on peaceful protesters in Iraq. Claims of ISIS resurging are being used to suppress Iraqi youth protesting against corruption. Recall the US support for al Maliki as the long-awaited reformer for Iraq, only to reverse course after realizing al Maliki was serving Iranian interests.
Can Kadhimi stabilize Iraq while managing the dichotomous relationship Iraq has with the United States and Iran? He cannot. The sooner the United States recognizes this, the better off the Iraqi people will be.
Mr. Knights comments that the return of Lt. Gen. Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi to head the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service (CTS), “signal Kadhimi’s commitment to an effective, well-resourced CTS, which has long been Washington’s key counterterrorism partner in Iraq.” But Saadi’s return is an attempt by Kadhimi to win over the youth movement in the street, not appease Washington.
PM Kadhimi is trying to bring the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) under the Iraqi armed forces while balancing the relative independence granted to it under PMF Law No. 40 in 2016. As the former chief spy in Iraq, Kadhimi knows that the militia commanders he met with in May at the PMF headquarters are designated as terrorist organizations by the United States government.
Can Khadimi actually impose such control over the PMF? If weapons were restricted to state entities, and the PMF assigned an official role in the security establishment, it could drive out the more extreme factions of the PMF, like the Hezbollah brigades and Asaib Ahl Al Haq.
This would be great for Iraqi independence, which is why the Iranians would never allow it.
While Kadhimi seeks to project power, leaders in Washington need to accept the PMF and Iranians are stronger than the Iraqi National Army.
Kadhimi will not push the Iranians out of Iraq. Kadhimi was approved by a majority of Iranian-backed blocs in parliament. He received the blessing of Iranian president Hassan Rouhani and the Iranian leadership.
Kadhimi would only receive Tehran’s approval if certain understandings were agreed. This undermining of Iraqi sovereignty explains why protesters insisted on leadership from outside the previous government.
Today, Iraq is ruled by officials promoting a false narrative that Iraq is on a path to democracy. The Iraqi “street” knows the latest parliamentary elections were a fraud.
Testimonies from Iraqi officials and politicians about fraud and additional reports of ballot boxes burned at warehouses have caused many Iraqis to lose faith in the electoral process.
The Iraqi people rose up in October 2019 under the slogan “We want a country.” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo commented on this phenomenon. The United States needs to support the Iraqi people, not the corrupt leadership. The United States must insist the Iraqi government lift the crack downs and restrictions on protestors. The U.S. should engage with the youth movement, insist on free and fair elections and eliminate Iran’s control.
The Arab youth today want Iran out of their countries. We have seen this during protests in Iraq and Lebanon.
For the sake of the men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice the United States must stand with the Iraqi people and demand an end to Iran’s hegemony in Iraq.
Ruwan Al-Rejoleh: political analyst, expert on Middle East and North Africa. Formerly served as an analyst at Tony Blair Institute For Global Change.