Disputes and rivalry between the United States and Iran have reached a dangerous level and are deepening daily. Although they are unlikely to enter actual direct war, both have stepped up their animosity trying to hurt each other’s interests.
The United States wants to undermine Iran’s role in world affairs through putting international pressure on the country, with the aim of preventing Iran’s to push Iran to stop meddling in the affairs of Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq.
The United States is trying hard to form a broad anti-Iran coalition. The number of countries opposing Iranian policy is increasing. US sanctions on Iran will get even tougher in April. Israel has also been stepping up its rocket attacks on Iranian forces, particularly in Syria. These tensions indicate the region is on the brink of a big war.
In turn, Iran also has stepped up its efforts to ward off these crises. Iran fears that the United States does not only want to undermine Tehran’s role in the region, but rather shrink the territory of a potential war with Washington. It is in the interest of Iran for this territory to be as big as possible, while in the interest of the United States for this territory to be as small as possible. The rivalry between the two is expected to expand further.
Due to its geography and pro-Iranian government, Iraq will be one of the places where rivalry between the United States will reach new heights. It would have been in favor of Baghdad and Tehran if Iraq could stay out of these rivalries and prove its neutrality. Iraq would then not come under US pressure to enforce US sanctions against Iran. But with Iraq being under the influence of Iran, the United States has an excuse to stay in Iraq.
Intelligence agencies reportedly either created ISIS or had their own people inside the group, directing and using the group for their own purposes. So it is not inconceivable to create a group like ISIS again. International and regional intelligence agencies can easily do so to achieve their objectives.
While the United States has stepped up pressure on Iran and is garnering international support to expel Iran from Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq, Iran is busy pressuring on anti-American fronts. Iran uses these as a bulwark against US hegemony in the region and would likely use them against the US military in the case of war. Iraq is one example where Iran is exerting its influence through the Hashd al-Shaabi, Iraqi government and parliament to set limits for the United States in Iraq. Iran also has put much pressure on Kurds, but they haven’t joined the anti-American front. However, it is unclear how much longer the Kurds can withstand Iranian pressure.
Iran is wrong in dragging Iraq and the Kurdistan Region into its rivalry with the US. This will give the US an excuse to strengthen its position in Iraq further. This is a fatal mistake for Iran.
Although the Kurdistan Region is part of Iraq and it is Iraq that protects the sovereignty of the country in accordance with the country’s constitutions and laws, Iraq cannot expel US forces in the Kurdistan Region if the Iraqi parliament passed such legislation. The Americans have had unlimited access to the territory of the Kurdistan Region since the Gulf War and this access will endure.
The more Iran puts pressure on Iraq to expel US forces from Sunni Arab areas, the closer the US will get to Iran through the Kurdistan Region. And this is not because the Kurds want this, but because the United States doesn’t want to be far from Iran.
Iran needs to review its flawed policy otherwise it will turn the Kurdistan Region into a platform against Tehran. If Iran doesn’t stop its policies, the United States could easily come to Hawraman. It would be very easy for the United States to have a few destabilising groups in areas Hawraman under the pretext of “fighting terrorism.”