ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Poverty and neglected reconstruction could radicalize internally displaced people (IDPs) who are “a ticking time bomb,” leaders from Iraq and the Kurdistan Region warned on Friday as the country tries to prevent an extremist reemergence so it can enter into a prolonged phase of stability and prosperity.
IDPs are one of the country’s most vulnerable economic groups, and according to Allawi are “a ticking time bomb” that could blow up “if we don’t find the appropriate solutions,” he implored.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports more than 1.7 million Iraqis remain displaced because of the ISIS conflict that began in 2014 and was declared over in December 2017.
Allawi warned key dangers including a lack of national unity, regression in the political process, poor representation of Iraq’s broad ethno-religious components, and widespread poverty and IDP population.
He was speaking at Erbil Forum 2019 under the slogan “Perspectives on Security and Sovereignty in the Middle East” in the Kurdistan Region’s capital.
Allawi, the head of the Wataniya coalition and Iraq’s former transitional authority prime minister, also discussed the underlying conditions that allowed the Islamic State (ISIS) group to emerge in Iraq.
“The prevailing conditions in our region encourage incubating terror. It doesn’t encourage keeping terror away,” he said, arguing the rivalries between forces that fought ISIS will create issues moving forward.
A common theme of the conference was the enduring defeat of ISIS mentality.
“We aren’t done with Daesh,” using another term for ISIS. “Daesh still exists, stands, at least ideologically, in the mind. This ideology hasn’t ended.”
To defeat the extremist mindset, the Iraqi nation must unit on all levels.
“Fortifying” Iraq’s society politically, economically, and morally is essential to fight the root causes of terrorism, not just efforts by the intelligence and military,” he said.
The rise of ISIS is widely seen as a reaction by radical Sunni Arabs to a loss of power and even oppression in post-2003.
“If it had not been for sectarian discrimination, and economic disenfranchisement, terror wouldn’t have formed in this violent form,” Allawi claimed.
A member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party Politburo, Chnar Saad Abdullah, asks a question during a panel on March 1, 2019.
Mosul and Anbar are historic Sunni powerbases. When ISIS extremists came to Iraq in 2014, many security forces there laid down their arms. Some fled, some remained, and those who resisted were treated harshly.
“Subjugation” and “mistakes” in dealing with the leadership of Mosul created conditions favorable to radicalism, explained Mosul native Osamah al-Nujaifi, the head of Sunni Qarrar Alliance who is the former speaker of the Iraqi parliament.
“This led to the appearance of hotbeds of extremism, Nujaifi said.
Rivalries between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Iraqi authorities in Mosul, together with the Shiite-Sunni dispute in Tel Afar, exacerbated the situation, he claimed.
However, these resentments were gradually overcome in the battle to retake Mosul, and the people of Nineveh supported the Iraqi forces, claimed Nujaifi.
Many Sunni leaders have claimed sectarianism by the predominately Shiite federal forces.
A Baghdad investigation confirmed some claims of rape, torture, and killing on sectarian grounds after Kurdish photographer Ali Arkady from Khanaqin published photos of the claims in a prominent German Magazine in 2017.
There are still hundreds of ISIS fighters in Nineveh, and Mosul has become the "corridor" through which they pass to Diyala and the Kurdistan Region, claimed Nujaifi.
Citing yesterday’s deadly explosion in Mosul, they are worried, Nujaifi lamented.
He also warned of the IDPs becoming "hotbeds" of extremism due to abject poverty and unaddressed grievances.
"This has become a problem that can explode any minute," warned al-Nujaifi.
The destruction of Mosul and slowness in rebuilding has caused people to be anxious, leading to instability.
Iraqi National Security Advisor Falih al-Fayyadh, approached the topic differently, claiming ISIS wasn’t a product of Iraq, but rather was imported by individuals who came to Iraq and took advantage of the chaos post-2003.
There were hotbeds of extremist thought during the previous regime, but they were repressed by the security apparatus, admitted Fayyadh, referring to the heavy hand of executed dictator Saddam Hussein who didn’t allow Iraqi religious leaders — Sunni or Shiite — to gain much power federally especially in security matters.
"What followed the fall of the regime, from the appearance of secondary identities and gathering based on non-nation foundations all contributed to creating the atmosphere for extremism," claimed Fayyadh.
“Terrorist groups” took advantage of the rising sectarianism post-2003, argued Fayyadh.
Fayyadh, formerly the head of the Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi committee who was removed from the post by outgoing PM Haider al-Abadi for “political reasons,” expressed a positive outlook.
“The new Iraq [after ISIS] would be different, and I hope that it will different in a positive way," he said.
Iraq is "rebuilding" itself, claimed Fayyadh, and sectarian blocs and coalitions are disappearing towards inclusive ones.
"Even in Kurdistan, the nationalist slogan is no longer the only force around which the sons of this area gather," added Fayyadh.
Real reconciliation process should resume ... #ISIS destroyed 70 percent of the economic infrastructures of cities in #Iraq - KRG Interior and acting #Peshmerga Minister Sinjari at #ErbilForum2019 pic.twitter.com/Mr04r4Xp3O
— Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) March 1, 2019
Opening the forum, KRG Interior and acting Peshmerga Minister Karim Sinjari read a statement from Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, who said investment in education and reconstruction would help prevent terrorism.
“To eradicate the roots of terror in Iraq and prevail over it we will have to first start rebuilding the destroyed areas,” Barzani said. “Terrorism thrives in neglected areas deprived of services. Reconstruction must start fast.”
Parties must work together and implement the constitution to create the “Iraq for all” they had all envisioned after 2003, so that terrorists no longer exploit Iraq’s political, ethnic, and religious differences, Barzani added.
The two-day conference will finish on Saturday.