ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — The so-called caliphate of the Islamic State is no more. Kurdish-led forces in Syria delivered the group its final blow in Baghouz, announcing the “total elimination” of the caliphate on Saturday morning. It was also the Kurds collectively who dealt the first blow to ISIS in Kobane in 2014.
Though ISIS is militarily defeated, it has permanently changed the Middle East — from the smallest of minority communities to the global standing of nations.
Leaders and militaries have declared military victory over ISIS, but the people who lived under the group’s cruelty don’t see much reason to celebrate.
"The idea that ISIS is defeated is just a joke,” Omar Mohammed, the historian blogger behind the Mosul Eye who documented life under ISIS in the northern Iraqi city, told Rudaw in February when the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were putting pressure on the militants in their last pocket of territory.
The group may no longer hold any territory, but they still have thousands of foot soldiers across Iraq and Syria, willing to wreak havoc and give up their lives for their cause.
Iraq is simmering with discontent about rampant corruption and elitism.
In both Iraq and Syria, ISIS “shows signs of wishing to stoke sectarian tension and pose as the standard-bearer for marginalized communities,” the UN said in a report on February 1.
It noted ISIS has three objectives as it shifts from controlling territory to an insurgency: “undermine stabilization and reconstruction activities, target infrastructure rebuilding efforts and in general thwart economic progress.”
In Iraq, the communities most heavily damaged — physically and psychologically — feel like they have been sidelined by the government.
The new administration of Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi focused its first months on the southern province of Basra that was rocked by deadly protests over the summer. Now, it is forced to turn its eyes to another region that says it is neglected after nearly 100 people died when a ferry sank in Mosul.
The Iraqi state – its government and institutions – are too weak to confront another ISIS and “is no longer representing the whole country," said Mohammed.
Communities are fragmented and militias hold sway in the Nineveh Plains, Tal Afar, and Shingal areas that were brutalized years of ISIS rule.
Anam, 24, is a Christian from Qaraqosh. Displaced from his home, he lived in Erbil from August 2014 to May 2017.
He’s returned home, but says the security and economic situations are bad. There are few job opportunities, seventy percent of the houses have been destroyed or damaged, and the services have not fully returned.
But more worryingly, is a break in relations between communities, which Anam says are caused by rifts between the Shiite government in Baghdad and the Sunni population in the province, as well as tensions between minority groups stoked by militias.
“Shabaks before 2014, they did not have Hashd [support]. But after 2014, they became stronger because of Hashd racism and relations have worsened” between Christians and Shabaks, he explained.
Iraqis have been down this road before — former US President George W. Bush’s declaration of victory after the 2003 invasion was followed by an insurgency, US withdrawal under former PM Nouri al-Maliki, and then a return of US forces in 2014.
"Daesh forces are defeated, but Daesh mind[set] cannot be defeated,” said Anam.
His story echoes that of many ethno-religious groups targeted by the extremists — notably the Yezidis who faced a genocide.
In August 2014, thousands of their men were summarily executed by the group, women and children sold into bondage, and their homeland of Shingal destroyed.
When Yezidi leaders were asked what the biggest challenge is facing their people in Syria, they said it is the thousands of lost Yezidis likely killed in mass graves or sold into slavery.
They now live in a place “liberated” from ISIS, but their identities have been destroyed and may never return to Shingal or know their true identity.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nadia Murad started a non-governmental initiative that advocates for victims of sexual violence and works to rebuild communities in crisis. It is also concerned with combatting ISIS ideology.
“It's as important to have a plan to fight this ideology and prevent people from joining groups like ISIS. This was the case when Al Qaida was mostly defeated in Iraq…” Nadia’s Initiative told Rudaw English. “I think this ideology still remains, it's dangerous to think ISIS will not regroup, perhaps under another name.”
It faulted a lack of “special focus” by the KRG, Iraq, and international coalition for rescuing the “3,000-plus Yezidi women and children still in captivity.”
With a lack of justice, Yezidis believe they will have a long road to recovery.
“It will take a long time for the Yazidi community to heal and reconvert from this genocide, this can’t be done without the support of international community,” added Nadia’s Initiative.
While Iraqi Security Forces do not release casualty figures from the ISIS conflict, more than 1,800 Peshmerga from the Kurdistan Region were killed. Another 10,000 were wounded.
Some 8,000 members of the SDF died to defeat the extremists who at one time controlled nearly one-third of Syria.