On Saturday March 23, the Kurdish-led fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) liberated the last bit of territory in Syria held by the so-called Islamic State (ISIS).
Coming just a few days after the spring equinox and Kurdish new year (Newroz), the timing of the victory carried with it a good deal of symbolism. Just as the advent of spring promises renewal and new life, so too can the people of northern Syria begin to heal and rebuild their lives.
The American position is not always reassuring for Syria’s Kurds, however. In December President Trump blindsided his own advisors and officials by suddenly tweeting that the Islamic State was defeated and that all US forces were leaving Syria “very soon.”
In January he spoke of creating a “safe zone” in northern Syria along the Turkish border – possibly also under Turkish control – that might have given Ankara the green light to steamroll the Syrian Kurds in all their major cities.
Then in early February he said all US troops would be “out by April.” In mid-February there was talk from the White House about an “international force” replacing US troops. By late February this changed to some 400 US troops remaining.
Finally on March 17 the announcement was made that 1,000 American soldiers would remain. The next day the Pentagon denied having said 1,000 troops would remain in Syria and insisted Trump’s pullout was happening.
The Syrian Kurds and fighters of the SDF deserve more reassurance from Washington. They suffered thousands of casualties fighting ISIS. Although they fought the Islamic State for their own interests, these interests – including the establishment of the most gender equal, ethnically, and religiously tolerant area in Syria – coincided with the interest of the rest of the civilized world.
When in 2018 Turkey invaded Afrin, one of the majority-Kurdish cantons of northern Syria, no one intervened. Hundreds of thousands of Kurds were displaced from Afrin as a result, their olive harvest was stolen by Turkey and exported to Europe, their homes were turned over to the families of Turkey’s Arab and Turkmen Islamist proxies, Kurdish statues and street names were removed, and even last week the remaining Kurds in Afrin were forbidden from celebrating Newroz.
With a minimal American commitment – a few hundred soldiers with air support – a similar fate need not befall northeast Syria. With the SDF in charge of security, no one need fear an ISIS resurgence in these areas. In stark contrast to Afrin and Turkish-supervised Idlib province, other radical Islamists will likewise find no fertile breeding ground in SDF-controlled areas.
Because Russian interests revolve around keeping the Assad regime in power, President Putin can also live with the American presence in northeastern Syria. While Syrian President Assad would like to regain control of Syria in its entirety, the American presence may force him to offer the Kurds reasonable compromises. Assad might also do well to prioritize regaining control of Idlib and Afrin from the Turks and their proxies in the meantime.
Iran will balk at having its land corridor to Lebanon and Israel stymied by the Syrian autonomous cantons and the continuing presence of US troops there. For many of the officials and strategists who decried Trump’s withdrawal announcement in December, that is one more reason to remain there longer.
Most importantly, the American commitment to their best Syrian allies in the fight against jihadism will prevent another Turkish invasion of northern Syria. The reasonable compromise Washington will offer Turkey will involve a commitment to prevent any attacks on Turkey from these areas and a promise to keep the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) on the US terrorism list.
Neither offer will mollify Ankara, which views the Syrian Kurdish administration as an extension of the PKK and a mortal enemy. Some differences in perspective, including Ankara’s support for various jihadi groups in Syria and Palestine, simply prove impossible to reconcile – in which case one leaves some soldiers and lots of airpower to keep the peace.
If northeastern Syria preserves its autonomy and peace long enough, the people there may finally get a well-deserved chance at realizing a brighter future.
David Romano has been a Rudaw columnist since 2010. He holds the Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University and is the author of numerous publications on the Kurds and the Middle East.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.