Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (right) receives Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi in Tehran on April 6, 2019. Photo: Courtesy Iranian Presidency/AP
Dr. Diyari Salih | Exclusive to Ekurd.net
A few days ago, Trump administration issued a resolution that emphasized the classification of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has been considered the most important security and military pillar in Iran since 1979, as a terrorist organization. It is expected that such a decision will leave many consequences on the Iraqi state.
While attempting to overcome many crises that threaten the fragile security scene in Iraq, Iraq’s prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi is now suffering from a pressing problem due to that American step against Iran, which will increase the Shiite-Sunni polarization in Iraq. Here, political parties will be divided into a group defending Iran and another supporting the US policies. Such a situation reminds us of the sharp sectarian divide that Iraqis suffered from in 2006-2007 and how it contributed to the sectarian war. Therefore, Abdul Mahdi has many times tried to send a clear message to all regional and international powers stating that “because of your wrong policies, civil war can return to the Iraqi cities and engulf this country again and drive it to the brink”.
In one of his lastly press conference, Abdul Mahdi stressed that he had communicated with the American administration to convince it to postpone its decision. Additionally, he affirmed that his visit to Egypt and later his receiving to a Saudi trade delegation in Baghdad all came in order to encourage these states to put pressure on Trump to reconsider his position on IRGC. But in the end, Trump was determined to continue in this path, which means that we are now facing a more dangerous stage in the Iranian-American relationships.
In the wake of that American move, Iraq’s neighbors have divided in a manner that foreshadows the nature of the coming geopolitical interactions in this country. Saudi Arabia welcomed that decision, describing it as a suitable step in the right direction to restrain the Iranian influence in Iraq. In return, Turkey announced its reservation on that choice and stated that if a state declared its adversary’s military force a terrorist group, it would be a dangerous precedent in international politics. This divide in the regional environment will make Abdul Mahdi’s task to manage these forces’ interactions in Iraq more complicated, taking that they all have conflicted interests and mechanisms that can negatively affect all the Iraqi political system.
Abdul Mahdi also informed Iran and the US that they would not be allowed to turn Iraq into an arena to settle their accounts. He knows well that achieving this goal is difficult, but not impossible, as Iraq does not yet have a real political, security, and social cohesion on which Iraqis can depend to tackle this challenge. This is one of the failed state’s outputs that many observers have warned of its collapse and the decline of its capability to face such critical times. However, many Iraqis are today betting on the role of this crisis in changing the political leaders’ understanding, and this perception may prompt them to rethink their policies in a way that helps to lift the Iraqi state out of this impasse.
Under the pressure of the latest American decisions against Iran, Iraq is nowadays thinking of taking some proactive steps to prepare well for the next developments. For example, Iraq depends on Iran to meet its people’ needs in the electric power sector. Iraq’s plan is now based on diversifying its imports of natural gas, which is used to operate the electric power plants, and its imports of electricity through finding alternative exporters, such as Saudi, Kuwait, and Jordan. The Iraqi government fears that the tension between Iran and the US will coincide with the coming of hot summer’s months in Iraq, in which temperature reaches more than 50 degrees Celsius. The electric power outage for many hours a day contributes to increasing people’s resentment against the government. In fact, Iraq depends on Iran to meet half of its electric needs, and it is expected that the US will force Iraq to cut off its economic relations with Iran, which will lead to a new wave of Iraqi protesting in order to oust Abdul Mahdi’s government. Therefore, Iraq’s government is today required to set many solutions to face this scenario, or chaos will spread in all Iraq.
Iran will not allow the American side to completely exclude it from Iraq; thus, the others will not be able to participate in the Iraqi economy without meeting the Iranian conditions. The recent agreements that Iraq has signed with many Arab countries suggest that Iran gave the Iraqi side the green light to normalize its relations with the Arabs, providing this comes through the Iranian gate and leads to ease the US pressure on it politically and economically. The entry of these states to the Iraqi economic arena would generate new convictions in Washington towards Tehran and its role in Iraq, with the emphasis that Iran has a greater willingness to normalize its relations with these Arab countries, the basic allies of the US in this part of the world.
In light of these developments, Iraq wants to present itself to both the Iranians and the Arabs as an important economic bridge linking between them. If succeeding in achieving this aim, Iraq will contribute to creating new regional interactions in the Arab world away from the language of sectarian wars and religious atonement. Washington may be compelled to accept this compromise as it is the least dangerous option in the course of its relations with Tehran.
Diyari Salih is an Iraqi academic with a Ph.D. in Political Geography from the University of Baghdad and a Post-Doctorate in International Relations from the University of Warsaw. His research focuses on geopolitical issues in Iraq. He tweets at @DiyariFaily
The views expressed are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of Ekurd.net or its editors.
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