Iraq’s capital Baghdad is terribly disturbed by violence as tensions built up over the past year. Iraq suffered war over the past two decades. The ghosts of America’s war in Iraq are still haunting the nation.
Iraq’s political turmoil: Iraq has been unable to form a government nearly 11 months after the last elections, the longest such period since the US invasion. By storming the Parliament, a popular religious cleric gave the message of his indispensability in government formation.
Muqtada al-Sadr and Sadrist movement: Muqtada al-Sadr is Iraqi Shia scholar, militia leader and founder of the Sadrist movement— the most powerful political faction in Iraq at present. He rose to prominence after the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein government. As master of mass mobilization in current Iraqi political system, Sadr’s ability to mobilize and control large grass root followers is unparalleled.
The Sadrist movement is a nationalist movement that draws support from the poor people of the Shiite community across Iraq and at its strongest right now. The Sadrists have taken senior jobs within the interior, defence and communications ministries; state oil, electricity and transport bodies; and state-owned banks and even central bank.
Iran’s role: Iran shares a 1,599 km-long border with Iraq. The US invasion in 2003 and exit a decade later enhanced Iran’s influence over its nemesis Iraq. After Saddam fell, Iran sent militias across the border to resist the US forces and take power. Shiites are now Iraq’s top ruling elites! Iran is working behind the scenes, just like in Lebanon, to stitch together Shiite Muslim parties. Iran-backed Shia coalition Coordination Framework led by former Prime Minister Maliki is promoting Iran’s interests, and constantly fighting with Sadr.
October elections: The immediate crisis began after the October legislative elections wherein the populist cleric al-Sadr’s party won the most 73 seats. Iran-backed parties alleged “fraudulent election” and sieged the Green Zone housing government buildings to paralyze the government and parliament. The Supreme Court certified the elections.
Elections Aftermath: Sadr formed a coalition with Sunni and Kurdish parties to form a majority government but constitution requires the parliament to elect the president first with two-thirds of members present. The Framework absented from parliamentary sessions to block government formation.
After protracted gridlock Sadr ordered his (73) members on June 12 to resign from parliament. The Framework hurriedly replaced those vacant seats with own candidates. This provocative, zero-sum attitude gave them parliamentary majority but irritated Sadr. Maliki wanted the premiership but Frame work announced former minister Mohammed al-Sudani as the PM. On July 27, 2022, hundreds of protesters, mainly Sadr’s followers, stormed the Iraqi parliament chanting anti-Iranian slogans. Maliki ordered security forces to break their siege. Angry protesters attempted to assassinate Maliki by drone attack but failed.
Sadr called for dissolving parliament and holding new elections. His rivals didn’t respond. Sadr ordered his supporters to storm the parliament and, later, the Supreme Judiciary Council on August 22. He finally gave an ultimatum for announcement of dissolution of the parliament. Maliki enjoys support of militias armed and financed by Iran and adept in political assassinations. He is reinstating Iran-affiliated leaders at top government posts.
Iraq’s Plight: The Hashd al-Shaabi (The Popular Mobilisation Forces) fought the ISIS, eliminated it in three years but left Iraq devastated. Decades of imperial, sectarian and civil wars has drained Iraq’s manpower and resources, ruined its economy, torn apart its society and sapped popular spirit. Generations of Iraqis have lived and died through violence after a century of Western colonial, imperial and proxy wars.
The Sadr-Maliki fight pivots on the nationalist agenda. Sadr challenges Iranians authority over Iraq while Maliki supports Iran. Iranian dominance and influence alienate the Sunni communities. Sadr is the only viable option in Iraq; his growing influence eclipses both America and Iran. Sadr seeks exit of the remaining American troops and told Iranian theocracy that he will “not let his country go in its grip”.
Starting a war is easy but ending is difficult. A conflict does not end with cessation of fighting; the tragedy far outlives the war. The true “birth pangs of a new Middle East,” requires politics to be the antidote of war.
Sadr announced on August 29 to withdraw from politics; his followers stormed government palaces. Violence could worsen the political crisis. Iraq’s military announced a nationwide curfew; the caretaker premier suspended cabinet sessions. The August 30 violence killed twenty-one people and injured 250 more. Sadr had to call his followers to stand down to defuse tensions. Fear of street protests prevails.
Sadr’s “complete withdrawal” from the public scene left his rivals?to face the angry masses. As the situation?escalated, Sadr gave a scathing speech criticizing his supporters and rivals alike and ordered his followers to end their occupation of the parliament and stop all protests, including peaceful demonstrations.?He praised Armed Forces, Popular Mobilization Forces, and Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.
Sadr’s speech cleared the way for parliament to resume its business and political actors to restart government formation negotiations. It is up to Sadr’s rivals to dissolve parliament and hold early election. Sadr will remain out of Iraqi politics but if rivals form government excluding the Sadrists for the next three years, expect another round of violence.
Iraq’s future is uncertain. The October 2021 had raised hopes that a nationalist, non-sectarian agenda could break the impasse in Iraq’s political and economic development but Iraq’s opaque government formation process and Supreme Court ruling on a two-thirds majority entrenched the status quo. Iran-backed parties and militias who lost in those elections make hay.
By disengaging from Iraq’s political institutions, Sadr is setting up his return and leverage his mobilizing power to force parliament for constitutional reform but Frame work is exploiting the vacuum to further entrench. America can promote alternatives to Iran by supporting Iraqi nationalism, representative government, and constitutional reform. Supporters won’t allow Sadr to quit politics.
Emergency session: The Framework whom Sadr wanted to exclude from power is the main beneficiary of his withdrawal by gaining 50 more seats. An emergency special session was held at the request of the Framework to discuss the Turkish attacks in northern Iraq and arrange oath-taking of the alternate MPs to close the door to the return of the Sadrists to parliament. But swearing in of new MP requires an absolute majority of 166 MPs in attendance– not possible without Sadr’s coalition allies of the KDP and the Sovereignty Alliance. Iraq dwells in political impasse and keeps boiling.