Al-Rai, Kuwait, December 24
Last week marked the conclusion of the second Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership, which took place on the Jordanian side of the Dead Sea. The conference brought together leaders of the Arab world – including from Jordan, Egypt and Gulf states – together with France, in order to discuss Iran’s actions in the region. The conference was marked by a rhetoric completely different from the usual one focused on regional stability and cooperation. This time, all eyes were on Iran. Iran increased its aggression toward everything that is Arab in the region, especially after the administration of US President George Bush handed over to them Iraq on a silver platter in the spring of 2003. The words of Jordan’s King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, revealed a clear desire to support Iraq and prevent its fall under Iranian hegemony. Unfortunately, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian once again managed to raise all Arab, Gulf and European concerns when he touched upon the issue of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. They were killed at the hands of the Americans in early 2020, shortly after they left Baghdad Airport. This time, the conference was held in the presence of Iraq’s new Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ al-Sudani, who symbolizes the coup that took place in Iraq and enabled Iran to regain the initiative in Baghdad. The Islamic Republic waited a full year before overturning the results of the legislative elections and imposing al-Sudani as prime minister. It destroyed any chances that Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, a reasonable and somewhat balanced man, would remain in the position of prime minister with the support of Muqtada Al-Sadr. Teheran wanted a prime minister who would be in complete alignment with its policies and who would be a softened, less provocative version of Nouri al-Maliki. At the conference, al-Sudani contented himself with raising the issue of water security for Iraq, claiming that it is an “existential threat” to the country, while ignoring basic issues such as completing the demarcation of the maritime borders between Iraq and Kuwait. This issue was raised by His Highness Sheikh Ahmed Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti prime minister, who spoke openly at the conference about the need to resolve this issue instead of the Iraqi side resorting to procrastination. It became clear from the statements made by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian that his country is ready to negotiate Iraq’s future with the Western world. For the Islamic Republic, Iraq is an Iranian card, like other cards, including Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The Iranian foreign minister was clear in his request to revive the agreement on the Iranian nuclear file, which was signed in the summer of 2015. Abdollahian, who undoubtedly has a strong personality and the ability to speak Arabic alongside Persian, does not know that global events and the Iranian internal situation have made the US administration uninterested in returning to this agreement. It is no longer a secret that Washington is concerned about Iranian involvement in the Ukrainian war on the side of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Iranian role in Iraq and the complacency of the authorities in the country regarding the passage of Iranian weapons to Syria and from there to Lebanon is also no longer a secret. In addition to all of this, King Abdullah II is aware of the details of drug smuggling to Jordan from Syria. Some of these drugs remain in Jordan, while some move to other Arab Gulf states. Not a week goes by without a clash between Jordanian forces and smuggling gangs affiliated with Iran in the border areas between Jordan and Syria. Jordan, which is currently going through a difficult economic crisis, is suffering from more Iranian efforts aimed at destabilizing the Hashemite Kingdom in light of cooperation between the Revolutionary Guards, the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood and the Palestinians represented by Hamas. In the absence of real change in Iran, a change that must be imposed by the Iranian people, the situation in Iraq will remain stagnant. Other conferences will be held in order to make Iraq restore its normal status as one of the most important countries in the region. Sadly, these conferences won’t achieve anything. The Iranian game has been exposed, even to the Biden administration. It appears that there is no Arab negligence toward Iraq, but at the same time there is no bet on a major change in Baghdad as long as the Revolutionary Guards are keeping a tight noose around Iraq’s neck. – Kheir Allah Kheir Allah (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)