Iraq News Now

Israel and

Iran find themselves once again, for the third time in a year and a half, in a

round of exchanged blows and revenge-fueled assaults that in extreme

circumstances, which could deteriorate into a broader conflict. But this time,

as opposed to the tension that played out between February and May of last

year, the clashes span a larger area, which according to media reports

stretches beyond Syria, to Iraq and Lebanon as well.
The Israel Defense Forces said

Saturday night that it had managed to thwart an Iranian plan to

launch drone strikes at military and infrastructure targets in northern Israel.

The first attempt of the Al-Quds Brigades of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards

was disrupted on Thursday under circumstances that have not been disclosed. On

Saturday night the Israel Air Force struck a base in the village of Aqraba,

southeast of Damascus, from which the drone strike was to have originated. The

Israeli action was relatively extensive, but at the moment there are no reports

from Syria regarding casualties. According to the IDF, Shi’ite militiamen and

Revolutionary Guards were at the base.
In an unusual step, Israel

revealed a fairly large number of details about the assault with both the IDF

Spokesperson’s Unit and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issuing statements

about it. Netanyahu, his bureau said, had spent the night in the air force war

room along with IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi. In its statements, Israel

departed, albeit not for the first time, from its policy of ambiguity with

regard to most incidents in Syria in recent years. The reason for this might be

that in this case the action was to stop a threat ahead of time, a moment before

an Iranian assault. Of course, it’s possible that electoral considerations were

also at work here.
Another

interesting incident happened during the night. Explosions were heard in Beirut

and Hezbollah said two drones that had approached Dahyeh, the Shi’ite suburb

south of Beirut, had crashed. In that case, Israel has volunteered no

information. Israel rarely attacks in Lebanon, and certainly avoids doing so

from the air. 
Hezbollah

has in the past marked aerial attacks in Lebanon as its red line (while showing

restraint when it came to dozens of assaults attributed to Israel against the

organization’s weapons-smuggling convoys in Syria). And even when Israel

uncovered factories to produce precision weapons in Beirut, it preferred doing

so via Netanyahu’s speech in the United Nations and not by bombings.
This time, meanwhile, Israel has

not reacted to the incident in Beirut. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan

Nasrallah, who is usually happy to appear as Lebanon’s protector, is set to

address the incident in a speech later Sunday.
According to the Lebanese

government and Hezbollah, the organization disrupted an Israeli UAV assault.

However, another possibility is that the UAVs or drones that fell were not

Israeli, but rather Iranian, and they were connected to plans to thwart attack

plans an Al-Quds force following the attacks in Syria. Israel and Hezbollah may

have a common interest here in calming things down, at least on the Lebanese

front.
The IDF

and Netanyahu have an advantage in the north 
The

thwarted Iranian action was apparently planned as revenge for an assault

on a weapons warehouse belonging to the Iran-backed Shi’ite militias in

Iraq on July 19, which was attributed to Israel. Tehran saw this as an Israeli

attempt to expand the arena of conflict. Even the United States objected to the

assault, over concern that it would hinder ties with the government in Baghdad,

and it made sure to leak details and criticism of Israel to the New York Times,

which was published on Friday.
On

Thursday, in a very unusual departure from the policy of logical information

security, Tehran even hinted of an expected response on its part. A commentator

close to the Revolutionary Guards wrote in the Iranian newspaper Kayhan that

Israeli actions in Iraq and Syria would be met with surprises, such as launches

of UAVs at sensitive security targets, ports and nuclear sites in Israel. The

plan that was foiled, according to the IDF, was identical to the action

threatened beforehand by the commentator.
The

repeated strikes against Iranian targets in Syria show the IDF’s advantage when

the conflict with the Revolutionary Guards takes place close to Israel’s

border. The Israeli intelligence community monitors events in Syria closely and

the air force is able to strike the Iranians and disrupt their plans without

great difficulty so far.
But

that is not to say that Iran has given up its aspirations in Syria. After the

many assaults last year, the Iranians made changes in its deployment, such as

moving the focus of their activities from the Damascus airport to the T4 air

base near Homs, which is farther from Israel. They have not abandoned their

attempts to strengthen their military presence in Syria and have not stopped

smuggling weapons to Hezbollah.
Iranian

revenge now depends on whether the Revolutionary Guards are still capable of

immediate responses, but it also depends on the magnitude of casualties. If it

turns out that Iranians were killed in the Israeli action, among them senior

figures, the motivation for revenge will be greater. The IDF has already taken

a number of defensive steps, including the deployment of Iron Dome aerial

defense batteries in the north.
This

is all happening in the backdrop of tension between the United States and Iran

in the Persian Gulf and the crisis over the American withdrawal from the

nuclear agreement. The Trump administration has already made it clear that the

U.S. doesn’t want war with Iran, but the friction between the two sides is

ongoing and the Iranians can continue to attack targets associated with the oil

industry in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, as they do against Israel from

Syria.
The

assault in Syria and the incident in Lebanon shed a different light on claims

critical of the government over a lack of offensive action toward Hamas in the

Gaza Strip. And as in the affair of the discovery and destruction of tunnels

dug by Hezbollah in Lebanon in December, it turned out belatedly that

there are other considerations behind the policy of restraint in the Gaza

Strip, which are not always disclosed to the public in real time.
The

tension in the north is increasing as the election campaign reaches its final

lap ahead of Election Day on September 17. The prime minister is preparing for

elections while in the background are deadly attacks in the West Bank and

growing friction with Hamas in Gaza that could lead to another exchange of

blows there. But in the north, as opposed to Gaza, Netanyahu meanwhile feels

comfortable politically: He appears to be in control of the situation and is

managing the use of force relatively cautiously. At the moment, no Israeli

citizens have not been directly threatened or injured in the north. And so

Netanyahu will probably try to politically leverage military action in Syria,

while trying to limit as much as possible discussion of the situation of

residents of the Gaza border area.
As

for the north, Netanyahu’s opponents don’t have much to say except to express

somewhat forced support of the government’s policy and the IDF’s actions. And

yet, the question arises as to whether the decision (as reported) to expand

Israeli assaults to Iraq was not too great a risk and whether this was not the

straw that broke the Iranian camel’s back and drew Saturday night’s attempted

response.