Syria safe zone proposals and KRG’s possible role in a solution
By: Mamend Roje
The idea of a Safe or Buffer Zone in Syria has been an international and regional topic in recent years and now Turkey has once again brought up the issue. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavusoglu is expected to broach the idea during a visit to the Kurdistan Region, while Syrian National Coalition (SNC) leaders discussed it a recent meeting with Masoud Barzani.
The question here is: What role the Kurdistan Region and Barzani in particular could play in Syria in the possible creation of a safe zone in northeast Syria.
Hypothesis: The West would like Barzani to take part in the creation of this buffer zone. The US wants Turkey to have a place in northern Syria. To address Turkish concerns Washington considers positioning Roj Peshmerga in areas close to the Turkish borders. The superpowers also want the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to use its leverage on Syrian Kurdish allies to create a balance between anti-Turkish forces in Rojava and Kurdish groups who prefer good ties with Ankara.
Which Safe Zone?
A Safe Zone in Syria would not be a homogeneous and comprehensive project. There are a number of suggestions. The US and Europe want to carve out a zone for civilians and their local partners in the international anti- international coalition. A United Nations resolution backs this, too.
The Syrian Regime, Russia and Iran are opposed to this idea and see it as an attempt to partition Syria. The Gulf countries, Egypt and Jordan are looking on suspiciously without a clear policy.
Under the American plan a buffer zone is to be approximately 20 miles south of the Turkish border. Senator Lindsey Graham proposed the plan on a visit to Turkey. The plan outlines an autonomous administration for the Safe Zone that reflects the region’s Kurdish, Arab, Turkmen and Assyrian population with Turkey and US protecting the zone from the air. Washington wants to keep parts of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SFD) for security on the ground.
For its part, Turkey isn’t welcoming the idea and when the White House Chief Security advisor John Bolton laid out the plan in Turkey in January it got immediately rejected. The Pentagon revised and made changes to the proposal, but Turkey still seems intent on pursuing its own Safe Zone.
The Turkish Safe Zone
Ankara’s plan, according to documents of the Turkish National Security Agency, is to avert the “danger of a Kurdish corridor” and a Kurdish territory on its border. Turkey would only support a Safe Zone run by the Turkish army and their militant allies, generally known as the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Ankara does not want the KRG experience duplicated in northern Syria; i.e. an internationally recognized Kurdish entity.
The Turkish government has a few preconditions for a Safe Zone in the north of Syria:
Establish a force to rout out “terrorist groups” and restore “internal security and stability”. Form a civilian administration of people not involved in the armed conflict of the last eight years with Turkey maintaining the right to cross-border operations in a depth of 32 kilometers. Begin reconstruction of the war-torn areas and pave the way for the return of Syrian refugees.
The SDF and the Peoples Protection Units (YPG) do not feature at all in Turkey’s plan.
Ankara also plans to place long-range artillery in an area stretching 40 kilometers while the army and its FSA allies are to respond to any threats on the ground. The US-led International Coalition, and even Tehran and Moscow oppose this Turkish project. But to win support Turkey aims to include some Kurdish forces in the plan by allowing the Roj Peshmerga into the Buffer Zone.
Barzani and the Safe Zone Initiatives
Masoud Barzani remains a kingmaker in Kurdish politics and this is acknowledged regionally and internationally. The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed the Warsaw Conference with him during a visit to Erbil in January, and the part the KRG could possibly play in Rojava. Shortly afterwards the Kurdish leader flew to Jordan on an invitation from King Abdullah. The two leaders reportedly discussed northern Syria while Barzani had just met a delegation of Syrian Kurdish National Council in Erbil. A few days after his meeting with Barzani King Abdullah was in Turkey about the same topic.
The Syrian National Coalition (SNC) wants the KRG to be part of the efforts for a solution to the Syrian crisis.
Considering the above factors, we can conclude that:
The sticking point in the two Safe Zone projects is the Kurdish issue, particularly the YPG and the PYD. Ankara does not want these forces and the US has so far failed to find a way around this deadlock.
To make Turkey compromising Washington is encouraging regional countries and non-state actors as the KRG to join and contribute to its Safe Zone plan.
KRG’s part would certainly be played by Barzani and under his auspices.
Turkey is believed to have softened on some of its conditions and agreed to the deployment of the KRG-sponsored Roj Peshmerga on its borders.
The Kurds of Syria and Rojava have become a case for regional and international talks for many more months to come.
*Mamend Roje, Researcher at Rudaw Research Center based in Erbil, Kurdistan Region.
