Iraq lives on a tightrope: balancing diplomacy and military posture against Israeli threats
Shafaq News/ As tensions flare across the Middle East, Iraq finds itselfat a critical crossroads, with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani grapplingto distance the country from escalating conflicts. While balancing close tieswith Tehran and efforts to strengthen relations with Washington, Iraq'sgovernment faces the challenge of preventing Israeli military actions on itssoil and managing the growing influence of Iran-backed forces.
Iran-Backed Factions Escalate Attacks
The Iran-aligned Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), a coalition of Iraqiarmed groups, has intensified its military operations since October 2023,citing support for the Palestinian resistance following Israel’s assault on theGaza Strip. Initially targeting US military bases in Iraq and Syria, the groupexpanded its attacks to Israeli sites, including the Jordan Valley, GolanHeights, Haifa, and Tel Aviv. The attacks expanded significantly since lastSeptember when Israel started a war on Lebanon and engaged in daily militaryconfrontations with Hezbollah.
Notably, most organizations within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq havebrigades in the Popular Mobilization Forces, making them, at least in name,affiliated with the Iraqi state. However, these forces operate with growingautonomy within Iraq’s formal security apparatus.
The coalition, part of the broader “Axis of Resistance” comprisinggroups from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, conducted its first operation onOctober 17, 2023. It deployed a Qasef-2K drone to strike the US Harir base inErbil, marking the beginning of a series of hundreds of attacks against USforces. The group claims its actions are retaliation for “crimes committed bythe Zionist occupation [Israel] underAmerican Administration.”
The group’s attacks have drawn US retaliation, with Washington targetingthe PMF fighters, leaders, depots, and training centers in Iraq. A stepdescribed by the Iraqi authorities as a “violation of sovereignty.”
On October 4, 2024, Israel announced that two of its soldiers werekilled in a drone attack launched from Iraq. The following day, Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel is “defending itself on seven fronts,”including the “Shiite militias in Iraq.” Since then, tensions have escalatedinside Iraq, and Baghdad, which rejects the war in Gaza and Lebanon, hasintensified its diplomatic efforts to prevent the war from spreading to it.
Moreover, Israel has accused Iraq of enabling Iran to strike Israel throughits airspace in April and October when hundreds of Iranian missiles hit Israel.
In November 2024, US military officials stated that drones launcheddaily from Iraq were targeting Israel. An American security official confirmedapproximately five daily launches by Iranian-backed factions hit Israel,complicating the regional security landscape.
To make matters worse, a report by the Washington Institute forStrategic Studies revealed that a group linked to Saudi Arabia claimedresponsibility for six attacks on Israel, but they were likely launched fromIraq using drones belonging to the Hezbollah Brigades and/or the Houthis.
“Despite its name, all evidence suggests that MIBH is a facade groupestablished by the Iraqi muqawama (resistance). The language used in thegroup's statements closely mirrors that of IRI,” the report said.
In light of this, Israel raised the issue to the United Nations, withits foreign minister sending a letter warning Iraq.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar held the Iraqi governmentresponsible for "everything happening on its territory," saying, "Isent a letter to the President of the UN Security Council, urging immediateaction regarding the activities of Iran-backed militias in Iraq, which areusing its territory to attack Israel."
The Israeli FM stressed that “Israel has the right to self-defense, asoutlined in the UN Charter, to protect itself and its citizens.”
In his letter, Sa'ar also urged the Security Council to act “swiftly” toensure the Iraqi government meets its international obligations and halts theseattacks on Israel.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani dismissed Israel’s UNletter as a “pretext for aggression,” accusing Tel Aviv of attempting toescalate the war in the region. He reaffirmed that decisions of war and peace “restsolely with the Iraqi state,” emphasizing Iraq’s humanitarian support forPalestinians and Lebanese populations.
The Iraqi National Security Council has also convened an emergencysession to assess developments and reinforce the country’s official stanceagainst Israeli threats.
Resistance’s Military Readiness
Israel has tracked 65 drone attacks originating from Iraq since earlyNovember, according to the Israeli newspaper Maariv.
The newspaper highlighted a sharp increase in attacks over recentmonths, from six in August to 31 in September, and 90 in October. Israelisecurity forces said it successfully intercepted most drones but characterizedthe attacks as an "operational nuisance" with the potential toescalate into a strategic threat.
While Israel sends warnings against opening another front, Iraq facesinternal divisions. Pro-Iranian factions in Iraq, including Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqand the Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada, emphasize readiness for escalation.
Salam Al-Jazaeri, a member of the political bureau of the Asa'ib Ahlal-Haq movement, said, "The Iraqi people, government, and resistance areagainst the Zionist entity [Israel], and theoperation targeting Iraq involves key state institutions. Therefore, the dutyis to be fully prepared to defend the country's security."
In addition to "full preparedness," Al-Jazaeri, speaking toShafaq News Agency, called for "strong diplomatic reactions” by thegovernment through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, sending strong messages tothe UN Security Council and influential countries in the UN, as well as “clearmessages to the Americans that Zionist threats will harm the interests betweenAmerica and Iraq."
"The resistance is ready and will respond strongly to the Zionists,and American interests are not far from the resistance's strikes," hesaid, warning that "strikes on Iraq would mean the region entering alarge-scale war with unforeseen consequences."
For his part, Kazem Al-Fartousi, spokesman for the Kataeb Sayyidal-Shuhada, pointed out, "When the resistance factions entered the battleto defend the Arab and Islamic people in Palestine and Lebanon, they knew thatthe enemy would retaliate against these attacks. Therefore, caution must betaken, and all means should be used to mitigate, prevent, or counter Israelireactions."
Al-Fartousi stressed to Shafaq News Agency that "everyone mustfulfill their duty to protect Iraq from any targeting, whether throughdiplomatic efforts, by forcing the United States, with which they talk about astrategic security alliance, to defend Iraqi sovereignty as per the agreement,or else the agreement would be one-sided and ink on paper, or by going to theIslamic Republic of Iran and allowing Iranian air defenses to enter Iraqiterritory to protect the sovereignty of both countries, establishing jointdefense between them."
He added to Shafaq News, "Military efforts are also crucial, andthe Iraqi government should consider the Israeli threat as an opportunity tostrengthen its air defenses, break the security, commercial, and economicblockade on Iraq by controlling arms contracts and others, and arm Iraq withweapons capable of defending its sovereignty. Iraq cannot remain weak andcontinue to face threats."
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq relies on advanced weaponry, includingdrones, Arqab cruise missiles, and the newly introduced “Sarem” short-rangesmart missile. However, security expert Mukhallad al-Darb attributed Iraq’sreliance on diplomacy to its limited military capacities.
"Iraq does not possess sufficient military deterrents to respond tothe Zionist entity if it targets sites within the country. However, there is aclause in the Strategic Framework Agreement with the United States that allowsthe US to protect Iraq in the event of any external aggression."
Notably, the Strategic Framework Agreement for a Relationship ofFriendship and Cooperation between the United States and the Republic of Iraqoutlines long-term cooperation in seven key areas, including defense and security.However, the agreement does not commit the US to defend Iraq from internalthreats or external invasions but focuses on enhancing Iraq's ability toprotect its sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity throughcooperation without violating its sovereignty.
Al-Darb explained to Shafaq News, "Therefore, the Iraqi governmentis seeking a diplomatic solution, and there are ongoing talks and a dialoguetable between the government and all parties, including factions and externalactors, to keep Iraq away from such targeting and prevent the country frombeing dragged into the conflict."
Israel Focuses on Gaza and Lebanon
Currently, Israel's primary focus is on Lebanon and Gaza, where itsmilitary resources are heavily deployed. As a result, observers suggest thatthreats from the Iraqi Resistance have not yet escalated to a priority level.
Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that Israel's contingency plans forescalation from Iraq would begin with strikes on infrastructure and facilities,followed by targeted assassinations of key figures within armed factions.Israel has already taken military action against drone attacks from the Houthisin Yemen, targeting the vital port of Hodeidah, indicating that a similarresponse to Iraqi threats is possible.
Such discussions have already surfaced in Israel. Last October, IsraeliChannel 14 published a photo of prominent Iraqi religious leader Ayatollah Alial-Sistani as part of a list of potential assassination targets. This led theKataib Sayyid al-Shuhada faction to declare that al-Sistani is "above allred lines."
Despite these developments, there are no clear signs that Israel isplanning immediate military action in Iraq. Analysts suggest that while thesefactions pose a strategic nuisance, they do not yet represent an immediatethreat that would trigger a large-scale Israeli response.
Whatever the scenario, Iraq remains steadfast in its diplomatic efforts.
Iraq’s Diplomatic Stance
The Iraqi government, led by Prime Ministeral-Sudani and aligned with the “Coordination Framework” — a parliamentarymajority of pro-Iranian Shiite parties and Popular Mobilization Forcesrepresentatives — has pursued a policy of solidarity with Lebanon and Gaza buttried to distance itself from the conflict, despite its close ties to Tehran.
Al-Sudani has worked to strengthen Iraq'srelationship with the United States, positioning the country as a mediatorrather than a battleground and prioritizing diplomacy.
Iraq’s diplomatic strategy centers on securing Westernsupport for its stance and deterring Israel from aggressive actions against thecountry. Al-Sudani also tasked the Foreign Ministry with pushing for a unifiedArab response to Israeli threats.
Political researcher Ahmed al-Yasiri noted that “Iraq'sdiplomatic efforts are aimed at preventing Israel from escalating the conflictinto Iraqi territory.”
He pointed to Al-Sudani’s communications with USPresident Donald Trump, signaling a shift in coordination from PresidentBiden's administration to Trump’s as part of these efforts.
In a message on X, Al-Sudani reaffirmed Iraq’scommitment to strengthening relations with the US, indicating Iraq’s desire tostay out of the conflict.
Al-Yasiri emphasized, “Iraq’s internal focusmust be on managing its factional groups to avoid any attacks on Israel fromIraqi soil, which could serve as a pretext for Israeli military action, as seenwith Lebanon and Hezbollah.”
Iraq has consistently rejected the use of itsairspace or territory for attacks on other nations, with National SecurityAdviser Qasim al-Araji reiterating this position during a recent visit toTehran.
Despite these diplomatic efforts, analystsremain skeptical about Al-Sudani’s ability to fully control hardline factions,whose independent actions complicate the government’s efforts to preventfurther escalation.
