Turkey-backed Syria may be bigger threat than Iran, says Israeli government panel
Turkey could pose a greater threat to Israel than Iran in Syria if it supports a hostile “Sunni Islamist” force in Damascus, an Israeli government commission said on Monday.
Ankara has emerged as a major beneficiary of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria last month, after a rebel offensive led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Turkish-backed Syrian groups.
Since then, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to provide all forms of support, including military and security assistance, to help the new Syrian caretaker government establish public order in the country under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
The “Committee for the Evaluation of the Defence Establishment Budget and the Balance of Power”, chaired by former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel, is commonly referred to in Hebrew media as the Nagel Commission or Nagel Committee.
The committee was established in 2023, prior to the outbreak of Israel's war on Gaza, to develop recommendations for the defence ministry regarding potential areas of conflict Israel could face in the coming years.
The committee said the “origins of the rebels and their leaders”, some of whom previously had links to groups such as al-Qaeda, should not be overlooked.
“For this reason, it must be considered that Israel may face a new threat arising in Syria, which in some respects could be no less severe than the previous one. This threat could take the form of an extreme Sunni force that would also refuse to recognise the very existence of Israel,” the committee said.
“Furthermore, since the Sunni rebels will wield political power by virtue of their central control in Syria, a greater threat may emerge from them than the Iranian threat, which has been limited due to Israel’s ongoing actions, as well as the restrictions placed on Iran by the sovereign Syrian state.”
The committee warned that the problem could intensify if the Syrian force effectively became a Turkish proxy, “as part of Turkey’s ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire to its former glory”.
Read More »The presence of Turkish proxies - or Turkish forces - in Syria could increase the risk of a direct Turkey-Israel conflict, its report assessed.
The committee also raised concerns about the risk of rearmament in both Lebanon and Syria. Soon after Assad was toppled, Israel began a bombing campaign targeting hundreds of military sites in Syria, including air assets and research centres.
“It is necessary to adopt a policy of ‘eliminating threats entirely and maximising response,’ combined with ‘prevention’ and proactive measures to quickly neutralise any attempts to build a threat to Israel across the border,” the report said.
“In this context, we must consider that the entry of the Turkish army into Syria could accelerate the rearmament of Syria at a relatively fast pace.”
The committee further cautioned that the distinct geopolitical instability in the region could heighten tensions between Israel and Turkey, as well as Egypt.
