Region on the brink: will Iraq extend US-led Coalition stay?
Shafaq News/ A spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi ArmedForces, Sabah Al-Numan, confirmed that the timelines for the withdrawal of theGlobal Coalition forces from Iraq take into account the need for securityforces. Therefore, the timelines are fixed and proceed according to the plan.
The situation, however, appears more complicated. Security expertsassert that the region is facing a new crisis, with notable manifestationsincluding ISIS activity in the deserts of Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor of Syria,risks of Israeli aircraft violating Iraqi airspace, the presence of theKurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Turkish forces in the Kurdistan Region, andthe ongoing tensions between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkiye, andHayat Tahrir Al-Sham.
In an interview with Shafaq News, Al-Numan emphasized that the jointIraqi-American committees, particularly the Iraqi security committees, reacheda timeline for the coalition's withdrawal after several meetings in Baghdad andWashington. “these timelines are stable and were set after evaluating the capabilitiesof the Iraqi security forces and assessing the diminishing threat of ISIS.”
Al-Numan reassured that the Iraqi side of the border with Syria is"completely secure," listing measures taken, such as a concrete wall,sufficient border guard forces supported by Iraqi army units and PopularMobilization Forces, along with technical, logistical, and sensor devices.
On the intelligence front, Iraq monitors developments within Syria andtheir potential impact on its national security, "even though the situationin Syria is internal." Al-Numan clarified, "The security agencieshave an understanding of what is happening."
The governments of the United States and Iraq announced in a jointstatement released in September 2024, the conclusion of the Global Coalitionmission in Iraq, with a 12-month deadline, and no later than the end ofSeptember 2025. It shifted to " bilateral security partnerships in amanner that supports Iraqi forces and maintains pressure on ISIS."
The statement clarified that the announcement of the timeline for theend of the coalition's military mission came after ISIS's defeat in Iraq.
The statement also emphasized that Iraq remains a core member of thecoalition, and to prevent ISIS's return from northeastern Syria, thecoalition's mission in Syria would continue until September 2026.
Security expert Sarmad Al-Bayati noted that the discussions around thecoalition's presence in Iraq "are not final." He explained in aninterview with Shafaq News that while ISIS remains active in the deserts ofPalmyra and Deir ez-Zor, it does not pose a direct threat to Iraq due to thestrength of Iraq's defensive lines. “ISIS could still pose a risk to Syria, asit has limited activity in the desert.”
Al-Bayati also listed some of the essential tools Iraq uses to secureits border with Syria, including radar systems for detecting aircraft, andrevealed that radar systems for detecting drones will arrive soon.
He pointed out the need for air defenses and "monitoring ISIS fromthe sky," noting that while Iraq possesses these tools, they are limitedin scope. "What the coalition forces have, such as satellites, drones, andreconnaissance aircraft, are much more advanced than what Iraq has."
The security expert also highlighted that the threat from ISIS is primarilyon the ground, while the air threat may come from Israeli aircraft, as"Iraq does not have air defenses capable of downing these aircraft."
Additionally, Al-Bayati stressed that the presence of the PKK andTurkish forces in the Kurdistan Region, as well as the ongoing conflict betweenthe SDF, Turkiye, and Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, contributes to the growing risk ofa regional crisis.
It is worth noting that the "Inherent Resolve" coalition wasestablished in 2014 with 87 partners, including 82 governments and fiveorganizations, to assist partner forces in defeating ISIS and ensuring lastingsecurity cooperation.
Currently, around 2,500 US troops remain in Iraq as part of the GlobalCoalition led by Washington since September 2014. These troops are stationed atthree main sites: Ain Al-Asad base in Al-Anbar, Harir base in Erbil, andVictoria base near Baghdad International Airport. In addition to US forces,French, Australian, and British troops, as well as NATO forces, operate withinthe coalition in Iraq.
Former prime ministerial candidate, Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi, categorizesthe US military presence in Iraq into three main categories, explaining theirfunctions:
- Technicians and engineersresponsible for the maintenance and operation of military equipment, especiallyF-16 fighter jets. "Their presence is crucial, as these planes are guidedvia satellites and require constant maintenance and armament."
- Trainers for militaryforces, whose presence, according to military leadership, is no longernecessary as Iraqi forces have gained high-level expertise.
- Combat soldiers, whosepresence in any country undermines its sovereignty. "This is unacceptable.We are a sovereign nation and reject the military presence of any country onIraqi soil," Allawi concluded.
