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Shafaq News/ The ousting of President Bashar al-Assad onDecember 8, 2024, marks a defining moment in Syria’s history, opening the doorto a new chapter shaped by evolving regional dynamics. As Turkiye and Israelmove to assert their influence, their conflicting agendas are redrawing thefuture of Syria and impacting the broader stability of the Middle East.

This change in power balance is poised to reshape theregion, with repercussions that will echo for years to come.

Ambitions Clash

Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Turkiyehas played a pivotal role in shaping the course of the conflict. Early on,Ankara allied itself with armed groups opposed to Syrian President Basharal-Assad, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which emerged as a significantforce in challenging al-Assad’s regime.

However, as the war progressed, Turkiye’s objectives haveevolved, with a central focus now on preventing the rise of a Kurdish entityalong its southern border, a move it views as a direct security threat.

To achieve this, Turkiye has ramped up military operationsin northern Syria, targeting Kurdish forces and establishing buffer zones tosafeguard its territorial integrity. In December 2024, the Turkish-backedSyrian National Army (SNA) launched the Manbij offensive, seizing over 200square kilometers of territory from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Ankara has escalated its campaign against the SDF, which itconsiders an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Over the courseof these operations, Turkish airstrikes have repeatedly targeted SDF-heldareas, focusing on vital supply routes and command centers.

Between December 2024 and March 2025, Turkish drone strikesstruck SDF positions in northeast Syria more than 150 times, causing casualtiesamong both Kurdish fighters and civilians. The overarching objective is clear;to dismantle Kurdish self-governance in northern Syria and prevent any futureSyrian state from accommodating Kurdish autonomy.

The scale of Turkiye’s military efforts has continued togrow. With over 10,000 Turkish troops deployed along Syria’s northern frontierand reinforcements stationed in Afrin and Jarabulus, Turkiye is establishing alasting presence.

Additionally, reports suggest the construction of at leastfive new military outposts in northern Syria. In strategic areas such as Afrinand Tel Abyad, Turkiye has facilitated the resettlement of more than 30,000Syrian Arab families, altering the region’s demographic balance in favor ofpro-Turkish groups. The Turkish government has also allocated approximately $2billion for infrastructure projects, further solidifying its hold on areasunder its control.

Beyond these battlefield gains, observers say that Turkiyeis reportedly restructuring the Syrian military, aligning factions with its owninterests, and contemplating the establishment of permanent military baseswithin Syria. These moves signal Turkiye’s long-term intention to cement itsinfluence in the region.

While Turkiye’s influence continues to grow in northernSyria, Israel’s “announced focus” has been on preventing Iran and its ally,Hezbollah, from regaining a foothold in the country. With the power vacuum leftby al-Assad’s potential departure, Israel has ramped up its military operationsin Syria, conducting airstrikes aimed at Iranian and Hezbollah positions.Israel’s primary concern remains the potential for Iran to establish apermanent presence, particularly in regions near the Golan Heights.

To counter this threat, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) haslaunched over 80 airstrikes between December 2024 and March 2025, targetingsuspected Iranian arms depots and Hezbollah command centers across Syria.

Israel’s actions have not been limited to strikes onmilitary targets. Since al-Assad’s removal, it has launched severalhigh-profile attacks on key strategic locations. According to the SyrianObservatory for Human Rights (SOHR), at least 20 Israeli airstrikes occurredbetween January and March 2025, disrupting crucial supply routes used by Iranian-backedforces. These operations are designed to weaken Iran’s network of influence anddisrupt Hezbollah’s logistical operations across Syria.

Israeli defense officials have issued repeated warnings,signaling their readiness to escalate operations in Syria if it feels anythreat.

The effectiveness of these strikes is central to Israel’sstrategy. Israeli officials claim that their airstrikes have compromised atleast 70% of Hezbollah’s logistical network in Syria, and the Israeli DefenceMinistry reports that over 40 Hezbollah-linked militants have been killed sinceDecember 2024, underscoring the intensity of their campaign.

New Administration, New Ties?

President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s administration faces thedelicate task of managing relations with both Turkiye and Israel, two sideswith significant yet conflicting stakes in Syria’s future.

Ankara’s influence in Syria has deepened, but discussionsover the establishment of permanent Turkish military bases have raised concernsin Damascus. While Syria remains wary of Turkiye’s expanding presence, it alsorecognizes the need for pragmatic engagement to support stability and economicrecovery.

A key point of contention in the negotiations is thepresence of Turkish troops in northern Syria. Damascus is pushing to assertgreater sovereignty while also addressing Turkiye’s security concerns. Reportsindicate that joint security committees have been formed to negotiate thestatus of Turkish military outposts, with discussions centering on a phasedwithdrawal. However, no concrete agreement has been reached, leaving thesituation in a state of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, al-Sharaa’s administration has taken a markedlydifferent approach toward Israel. Unlike the previous government under Basharal-Assad, which closely aligned with Iran and Hezbollah, the current leadershipappears more pragmatic, prioritizing internal stability over regionalconflicts. Despite this strategic shift, direct diplomatic engagement betweenDamascus and Tel Aviv remains absent.

Nevertheless, behind the scenes, international mediatorshave reportedly facilitated backchannel communications. While al-Sharaa’sadministration has not publicly addressed Iran’s military presence in Syria,Israeli officials continue to demand the dismantling of Iranian-linkedinfrastructure as a precondition for any potential diplomatic overtures.

Until these conditions are met, Israel claims that it willcontinue its military operations in Syria, underscoring the deep-seateddistrust between the two sides.

Hidden Rivals

While Israel and Turkiye are not directly engaged inmilitary conflict in Syria, the increasingly adversarial dynamics between themare evident.

Turkiye’s support for Syrian opposition factions has placedit in direct opposition to Israeli interests, particularly as some of thesegroups are seen by Tel Aviv as security threats. At the same time, Israel hascontinued its airstrikes on Syrian military targets, including those alignedwith Turkish-backed forces, further complicating the situation. This delicatebalance of power creates the potential for indirect clashes between the two.

Bassam Abu Abdullah, a Syrian defense analyst based inDamascus, emphasized the tensions, “Turkiye’s efforts to dominate northernSyria put it at odds with Israel’s indirect backing of Kurdish groups, creatinga scenario where both nations are effectively operating in opposition, even ifthey are not engaged in direct confrontation.”

The situation becomes even more intricate as battlefieldalliances shift. Turkish-backed factions, responding to changing militarydynamics, have sometimes found themselves in direct conflict with Israeliinterests. Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, noted,“We have observed a shift in battlefield alignments. Some of the targets wehave engaged recently were not solely Iranian-backed; they included elementssupported by Turkiye, which is an emerging concern.”

Compounding the military maneuvers is a growing intelligencewar between Israel and Turkiye. Both countries closely monitor each other’sactivities, ramping up surveillance and espionage operations.

Turkish intelligence operatives, in particular, havereportedly intensified their focus on Israeli military assets in Syria, withparticular attention on the Golan Heights region. Murat Yetkin, a Turkishjournalist and former intelligence analyst, pointed out, “Turkiye has bolsteredits intelligence presence in Syria, not only to monitor Kurdish activities butalso to assess Israeli operations”.

From Israel’s perspective, the expanding Turkish role inSyria is increasingly concerning, especially with Turkiye’s growing support forIslamist factions. Brigadier General (Ret.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former Israeliintelligence officer, warned of the long-term risks, “The presence ofTurkish-backed Islamist groups in Syria poses long-term risks. Many of these factionsharbor hostility toward Israel, and some have links to networks that couldeventually threaten our security.”

Israel’s concerns extend beyond just the presence of thesefactions. Israeli officials are also wary of Turkiye’s expanding military footprintin Syria, particularly its efforts to establish permanent military bases.During an official visit to Paris, Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Sa’arremarked, “They are doing everything to turn Syria into a Turkish protectorate.We opposed the Iranians when they tried to do this, and we oppose the Turkishattempt to do it now,” underscoring Israel’s apprehension about Turkiye’sambitions in Syria.

What's Next?

Syria stands at a crossroads following the ousting ofPresident al-Assad, marking the beginning of a new and uncertain era. Thisdramatic shift in leadership has sparked a realignment of regional powerdynamics, with Turkiye and Israel emerging as central players in shaping thecountry’s future.

The involvement of external powers like the United States,Iran, and Russia further deepens the uncertainty surrounding Syria's future.Their presence in the country adds layers of complexity to an already volatilesituation. Iran, for instance, has reportedly begun revitalizing its networksin southern Syria, seeking to reassert its influence after al-Assad's fall.This resurgence presents new challenges for both Israel and the emerging Syriangovernment.

Similarly, Russia’s longstanding support for al-Assad,coupled with its military presence, continues to shape the regional powerdynamics, complicating any potential resolution.

The United States is still the backbone of the Kurds innortheastern Syria.

Meanwhile, the Gulf States have recalibrated their stance onSyria. Once among the fiercest critics of Bashar al-Assad, Saudi Arabia and theUAE have shifted toward a more pragmatic approach, recognizing that engagementmay offer greater influence than prolonged isolation.

Bloomberg reports that both nations have extendedsignificant economic aid to Syria’s new government, a strategy aimed atcounterbalancing the growing influence of Turkiye and Iran in the region.

However, despite this newfound engagement, the Gulf States'support for Syria’s new administration is motivated primarily by strategicinterests rather than ideological alignment. As Al-Monitor noted, the GulfStates’ long-term commitment to Syria will hinge on how the country navigatesits political future and the evolving regional power dynamics. The Gulf nationsare keenly aware that their investments in Syria must align with their broaderregional goals and security concerns.

Syria’s future now hinges on the ability of its newadministration to manage the complex web of internal and external pressures andthe new leadership must find a delicate balance to steer Syria toward a morepeaceful and prosperous future.